PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II

Next match: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 • 17:45 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Philips Stadion

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	92%	84.7%	—	—	—	—
Double Chance	1X	86%	91.6%	—	—	—	—
BTTS	No	80%	48.2%	—	—	—	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	82%	51%	—	—	—	—
Correct Score	2-0	72%	12.8%	—	—	—	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.9 exp.)	Over 9.5	64%	54.9%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: PSV Eindhoven 2.34 – 0.55 Willem II · expected total 2.88

🧠 Match Preview

PSV Eindhoven host Willem II at Philips Stadion on Saturday, and the stakes could hardly be more lopsided. PSV sit 2nd on 19 points from 8 matches, while Willem II are bottom of the Eredivisie on just 2 points from 8. The home side's recent form reads WLWDW; the visitors arrive on a miserable LLLDL run.

The model sees a clear mismatch. PSV's expected goals come in at 2.3353 against Willem II's 0.5466, with recent xG of 2.41 for the hosts versus 1.19 for the away side. Both squads are heavily depleted by injuries, but the depth gap at this level is stark. The match result model points to a Home win at 84.7 percent with confidence of 92, and double chance 1X lands at 91.6 percent. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.2 percent, while Over 2.5 goals carries 51 percent. The most likely correct score is 2-0 at 12.8 percent, part of a top-score cluster that also includes 1-0 at 12.5, 3-0 at 12.01, 2-1 at 8.44 and 4-0 at 7.01. Corners are expected to reach 10.9, with Over 9.5 at 54.9 percent.

The value question is whether bookmaker prices reflect that 84.7 percent home probability, so compare the implied odds carefully before committing. The honest caveat: PSV's injury list is long, and a rotated, patched-up side could easily underperform the model's clean numbers.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

PSV Eindhoven

Form (last 5)

WHeerenveen (H) 2–0 · 09/10/2026 LTwente (A) 2–3 · 20/09/2026 WSparta Rotterdam (H) 4–1 · 13/09/2026DShakhtar Donetsk (H) 1–1 · 10/09/2026WAjax (A) 3–1 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)3.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.30

Win streak (best this season)5

xG for (recent avg)1.95

xG against (recent avg)1.60

Elo strength rating1755

Players out13

Willem II

Form (last 5)

LUtrecht (A) 1–3 · 11/10/2026 LFortuna Sittard (H) 0–1 · 19/09/2026 LAjax (A) 1–5 · 15/09/2026 DAZ Alkmaar (A) 1–1 · 11/09/2026 LExcelsior (H) 0–3 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)0.90

Goals conceded (season avg)2.90

Win streak (best this season)0

xG for (recent avg)1.19

xG against (recent avg)2.17

Elo strength rating1312

Players out11

PSV EindhovenWillem II

WHeerenveen (H) 2–0 · 09/10/2026 LTwente (A) 2–3 · 20/09/2026 WSparta Rotterdam (H) 4–1 · 13/09/2026DShakhtar Donetsk (H) 1–1 · 10/09/2026WAjax (A) 3–1 · 05/09/2026

LUtrecht (A) 1–3 · 11/10/2026 LFortuna Sittard (H) 0–1 · 19/09/2026 LAjax (A) 1–5 · 15/09/2026 DAZ Alkmaar (A) 1–1 · 11/09/2026 LExcelsior (H) 0–3 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

3.30

0.90

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.30

2.90

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.95

1.19

xG against (recent avg)

1.60

2.17

Elo strength rating

1755

1312

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

PSV Eindhoven

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Willem II

Lost 3 in a row Winless 8

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven

2nd best attack (3.30 goals/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Willem II

2nd worst defence (2.90 conceded/game)

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

PSV Eindhoven at home · Willem II away — the split that matters for this fixture.

PSV Eindhoven (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–0L

W 3

D 1

Played4

Goals scored (avg)3.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Willem II (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–3L

D 1

L 3

Played4

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)3.30

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

PSV Eindhoven (home)Willem II (away)

W 3

D 1

L 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

3.30

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.00

3.30

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0

12.8%

1–0

10.4%

3–0

10%

2–1

4–0

5.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

PSV Eindhoven 6 wins · 2 draws · Willem II 2 wins · avg 2.9 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
08 Feb 2025	PSV Eindhoven	1–1	Willem II	Eredivisie
28 Sep 2024	Willem II	0–2	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
01 May 2022	PSV Eindhoven	4–2	Willem II	Eredivisie
25 Sep 2021	Willem II	2–1	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
09 May 2021	Willem II	0–2	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
08 Nov 2020	PSV Eindhoven	3–0	Willem II	Eredivisie
21 Aug 2020	Willem II	1–1	PSV Eindhoven	Friendlies Clubs
08 Feb 2020	PSV Eindhoven	3–0	Willem II	Eredivisie
10 Nov 2019	Willem II	2–1	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie
25 Apr 2019	Willem II	0–3	PSV Eindhoven	Eredivisie

📈 Recent Form

PSV Eindhoven

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
09/10	Heerenveen	Home	2–0	W
20/09	Twente	Away	2–3	L
13/09	Sparta Rotterdam	Home	4–1	W
10/09	Shakhtar Donetsk	Home	1–1	D
05/09	Ajax	Away	3–1	W

Willem II

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Utrecht	Away	1–3	L
19/09	Fortuna Sittard	Home	0–1	L
15/09	Ajax	Away	1–5	L
11/09	AZ Alkmaar	Away	1–1	D
05/09	Excelsior	Home	0–3	L

📊 Season Comparison — Eredivisie

PSV Eindhoven #2 · 19 pts — Willem II #18 · 2 pts

PSV Eindhoven

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–1D–1L

W 6

D 1

L 1

Played8

Goals scored (avg)3.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets1

Failed to score0

Yellow cards13

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.95

xG against (avg)1.60

Corners for (avg)5.90

Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

Willem II

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–6L

D 2

L 6

Played8

Goals scored (avg)0.90

Goals conceded (avg)2.90

Clean sheets0

Failed to score2

Yellow cards8

Red cards0

xG for (avg)1.19

xG against (avg)2.17

Corners for (avg)4.50

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

PSV EindhovenWillem II

W 6

D 1

L 1

D 2

L 6

Played

Goals scored (avg)

3.30

0.90

Goals conceded (avg)

1.30

2.90

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.95

1.19

xG against (avg)

1.60

2.17

Corners for (avg)

5.90

4.50

Penalties (scored/missed)

1/1

0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

PSV Eindhoven

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Willem II

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

PSV Eindhoven

❌ S. Dest — Yellow Cards
❌ C. Driouech — Knock
❌ J. Schouten — Knee Injury
❌ J. Veerman — Red Card
❌ A. Plea — Injury
❌ M. Bro Hansen — Injury
❌ D. Man — Inactive
❌ S. Ouaissa — Muscle Injury
❌ K. Sildillia — Injury
❌ S. Lammers — Lacking Match Fitness
❌ A. Nagalo — Injury
❌ R. Pepi — Injury
❌ P. Wanner — Foot Injury

Willem II

❌ A. Culum — Foot Injury
❌ A. Lachkar — Groin Injury
❌ J. Schuurman — Knock
❌ A. Zarrouk — Surgery
❌ H. ter Avest — Lacking Match Fitness
❌ T. Didillon Hodl — Hamstring Injury
❌ L. Abildgaard — Inactive
❌ T. Vilhena — Inactive
❌ J. Hoogma — Knee Injury
❌ V. van Crooij — Ankle Injury
❌ K. Boogaard — Knock

More: Eredivisie predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws