Predictions → Scotland Championship

Inverness CT vs Arbroath

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Tulloch Caledonian Stadium • ☁️ 23.6°C, 14 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Match Winner (1X2) — Home
Model 68.6% · Market best price ≈ 64.5% · Edge +6.3 pp
Best odds 1.55 Betano 1.55Dafabet 1.55Betfair 1.53
Bet this pick →
¼ Kelly sizing: 3.4% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.57 → 1.55 ▼1% 89% 69.7% 1.55 Betano 63.4% +6.3 pp
Double Chance 1X 83% 87.5% 1.16 Betano 85.7% +1.8 pp
BTTS No 85% 57.6% 1.87 Betfair 51.7% +5.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 83% 53.5% 1.85 Bet365 51.3% +2.2 pp
Correct Score 1-0 75% 14.3% 6.50 Bet365 7.5% +6.8 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Inverness CT 1.73 – 0.53 Arbroath · expected total 2.27

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Inverness CT host Arbroath at the Tulloch Caledonian Stadium on Saturday, with both sides sitting in the wrong half of the Championship table and needing points to climb. Inverness are 5th on 13 points from 9 games, while Arbroath sit 8th with 11 points from 10, so the gap is slim but the form book is not.

The model sees a clear home edge. Inverness arrive on a WWDWL run, while Arbroath have lost three of their last five in an LLWLL sequence. The expected goals split is lopsided: Inverness carry a home figure of 1.7358 against Arbroath's away 0.5345, which explains why the home win is priced at 68.6% with 88 confidence and odds of 1.57. The double chance 1X lands at 87.5%, the safest anchor on the card. Both teams to score is tipped No at 57.6% (odds 1.87), and Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 53.4% (odds 1.85). The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14.3%, with 2-0 (15.59) and 3-0 (9.02) close behind in the top-score list.

Value hunters should note the H2H is wildly streaky: Arbroath won 0-0 in August 2026, but Inverness thrashed them 3-0 in April 2025, and Arbroath returned the favour 3-0 in February 2025. No injuries are reported on either side, so team news offers no excuse. The caveat is real: Arbroath have won three of the last five meetings, including two clean sheets, so the 1.57 home price carries genuine derby-style risk despite the model's confidence.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Inverness CT

Form (last 5)
WStenhousemuir (H) 2–0 · 10/10/2026WMorton (H) 2–0 · 25/09/2026DLivingston (A) 2–2 · 19/09/2026WAyr Utd (A) 3–1 · 12/09/2026LRaith Rovers (H) 0–2 · 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1427

Arbroath

Form (last 5)
LMorton (H) 1–2 · 10/10/2026LPartick (A) 0–3 · 03/10/2026WQueen's Park (H) 2–1 · 25/09/2026LStenhousemuir (A) 0–1 · 19/09/2026LRaith Rovers (A) 0–4 · 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1474
Inverness CTArbroath
Goals scored (season avg)
1.20
0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.00
1.50
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
Elo strength rating
1427
1474

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Inverness CT

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Arbroath

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Championship

Inverness CT

3rd best BTTS rate (50%)

Arbroath

3rd best BTTS rate (50%) Best Over 2.5 rate (67%)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Inverness CT at home · Arbroath away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Inverness CT (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–1L
W 2
D 2
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2

Arbroath (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–4L
W 1
L 4
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.40
Goals conceded (avg)2.20
Clean sheets0
Failed to score4
Inverness CT (home)Arbroath (away)
W 2
D 2
L 1
W 1
L 4
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
0.40
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
2.20
Clean sheets
3
0
Failed to score
2
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
14.3%
2–0
13.1%
3–0
7.6%
2–1
7%
3–1
4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Arbroath 4 wins · 2 draws · Inverness CT 3 wins · avg 2.4 goals · BTTS in 4 of 9

4
2
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
08 Aug 2026 Arbroath 0–0 Inverness CT Championship
26 Apr 2025 Inverness CT 3–0 Arbroath League One
08 Feb 2025 Arbroath 3–0 Inverness CT League One
14 Dec 2024 Inverness CT 0–2 Arbroath League One
05 Oct 2024 Arbroath 1–0 Inverness CT League One
06 Apr 2024 Inverness CT 2–1 Arbroath Championship
24 Feb 2024 Arbroath 1–1 Inverness CT Championship
16 Dec 2023 Inverness CT 1–2 Arbroath Championship
30 Sep 2023 Arbroath 2–3 Inverness CT Championship

📈 Recent Form

Inverness CT

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Stenhousemuir Home 2–0 W
25/09 Morton Home 2–0 W
19/09 Livingston Away 2–2 D
12/09 Ayr Utd Away 3–1 W
05/09 Raith Rovers Home 0–2 L

Arbroath

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Morton Home 1–2 L
03/10 Partick Away 0–3 L
25/09 Queen's Park Home 2–1 W
19/09 Stenhousemuir Away 0–1 L
12/09 Raith Rovers Away 0–4 L

📊 Season Comparison — Championship

Inverness CT #5 · 13 pts —  Arbroath #8 · 11 pts

Inverness CT

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–2L
W 3
D 4
L 2
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Yellow cards18
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Arbroath

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–5L
W 3
D 2
L 5
Played10
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score5
Yellow cards13
Red cards3
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Inverness CTArbroath
W 3
D 4
L 2
W 3
D 2
L 5
Played
9
10
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
0.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.00
1.50
Clean sheets
4
2
Failed to score
3
5
Yellow cards
18
13
Red cards
0
3
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Inverness CT

1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Arbroath

4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws