Predictions → Spain La Liga

Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 18:15 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Anoeta • ☁️ 20.2°C, 21 km/h overcast

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.82 → 1.76 ▼3% 1xBet1.7657% +0.3%
Double Chance 1X 1xBet1.2279.9% -2.5%
BTTS Yes William Hill1.6763.3% · No 36.7% +5.7%
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 1xBet1.7259.3% · Under 40.7% +2%
Correct Score 2-1 Bet3658.509.7% -17.6%
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.7 exp.) Over 9.5 1xBet1.6058.7% · Under 41.3% -6.1%

🧠 Match Preview

Real Sociedad · Home

Real Sociedad scored 15 goals across their last five matches, including a 6-0 win at Lillestrom and a 5-2 win at Malaga, though they lost 1-2 at Athletic Club. Their recent xG for is 1.48, while the model expected goals for this fixture is 2.03.

Rayo Vallecano · Away

Rayo Vallecano won 3-0 at home to Celta Vigo but failed to score in a 0-3 home loss to Elche, and drew 1-1 away at both Getafe and Osasuna. Their recent xG for is 1.29 against a model expected goals of 1.27.

Rayo's Away Draw Pattern

The latest H2H, on 26 Apr 2026, finished 3-3 at Rayo Vallecano, and the prior meeting in San Sebastian ended 0-1. Rayo's away form shows two 1-1 draws at Getafe and Osasuna, so a visiting goal is plausible. Real Sociedad's 15 goals in five matches, with no failed-to-score game, supports a home edge. The evidence supports Real Sociedad win.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Real Sociedad 2.03 – 1.27 Rayo Vallecano · expected total 3.30

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Real Sociedad

Form (last 5)
LWWWD
Goals scored (season avg)1.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Best league winning streak this season4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.48
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.89
Elo strength rating1541
Players out11

Rayo Vallecano

Form (last 5)
WLDDW
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)2.00
Best league winning streak this season3
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.29
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.45
Elo strength rating1536
Players out11
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
Goals scored (season avg)
1.90
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.80
2.00
Best league winning streak this season
4
3
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.48
1.29
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.89
1.45
Elo strength rating
1541
1536
Players out
11
11

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Real Sociedad

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored a goal
6/6
No goals conceded
1/6

Rayo Vallecano

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: La Liga

Real Sociedad

Best BTTS rate (83%, last 6) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%, last 6)

Rayo Vallecano

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Real Sociedad at home · Rayo Vallecano away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Real Sociedad (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–1L
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2

Rayo Vallecano (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–3L
D 2
L 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)2.60
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Real Sociedad (home)Rayo Vallecano (away)
W 3
D 1
L 1
D 2
L 3
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
2.60
Clean sheets
1
0
Failed to score
2
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

2–1
9.71%
2–0
7.66%
1–0
6.58%
3–1
6.58%
3–0
5.19%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Rayo Vallecano 2 wins · 5 draws · Real Sociedad 3 wins · avg 2.9 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10

2
5
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
26 Apr 2026 Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Sociedad La Liga
05 Oct 2025 Real Sociedad 0–1 Rayo Vallecano La Liga
16 Mar 2025 Rayo Vallecano 2–2 Real Sociedad La Liga
16 Jan 2025 Real Sociedad 3–1 Rayo Vallecano Copa del Rey
18 Aug 2024 Real Sociedad 1–2 Rayo Vallecano La Liga
27 Jan 2024 Real Sociedad 0–0 Rayo Vallecano La Liga
29 Oct 2023 Rayo Vallecano 2–2 Real Sociedad La Liga
22 Apr 2023 Real Sociedad 2–1 Rayo Vallecano La Liga
21 Jan 2023 Rayo Vallecano 0–2 Real Sociedad La Liga
10 Dec 2022 Real Sociedad 1–1 Rayo Vallecano Friendlies Clubs

📈 Recent Form

Real Sociedad

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Athletic Club Away 1–2 L
25/10 Levante Home 2–1 W
22/10 Lillestrom Away 6–0 W
18/10 Malaga Away 5–2 W
15/10 Union St. Gilloise Away 1–1 D
11/10 Deportivo La Coruna Home 3–2 W
02/10 Athletic Club Home 0–1 L
20/09 Valencia Away 3–2 W
17/09 Bournemouth Home 1–2 L
13/09 Atletico Madrid Home 0–3 L

Rayo Vallecano

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
31/10 Celta Vigo Home 3–0 W
24/10 Elche Home 0–3 L
19/10 Getafe Away 1–1 D
19/09 Osasuna Away 1–1 D
15/09 Espanyol Home 2–1 W
12/09 Real Madrid Away 1–4 L
05/09 Racing Santander Home 3–2 W
31/08 Barcelona Away 2–5 L
20/08 Alaves Home 1–1 D
15/08 Sevilla Away 1–2 L

📊 Season Comparison: La Liga

Real Sociedad #5 · 19 pts ·  Rayo Vallecano #11 · 12 pts

Real Sociedad

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–1D–4L
W 6
D 1
L 4
Played11
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards20
Red cards3
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.48
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.89
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Rayo Vallecano

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–4L
W 3
D 3
L 4
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Yellow cards25
Red cards2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.29
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.45
Corners for (avg)4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)0/1
Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
W 6
D 1
L 4
W 3
D 3
L 4
Played
11
10
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
2.00
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
3
1
Yellow cards
20
25
Red cards
3
2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.48
1.29
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.89
1.45
Corners for (avg)
5.40
4.80
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Real Sociedad

0-15
4
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
7
61-75
3
4
76-90
4
scored conceded

Rayo Vallecano

2
0-15
4
6
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
7
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Real Sociedad

  • ❌ J. Gorrotxategi: Groin Injury
  • ❌ G. Guedes: Injury
  • ❌ P. Marin: Injury
  • ❌ A. Odriozola: Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Martin: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ I. Zubeldia: Injury
  • ❌ J. Aramburu: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ O. Oskarsson: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ L. Beitia: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ A. Zakharyan: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Y. Herrera: Calf Injury

Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): H. Fort (Coach's decision), J. Pacheco (Coach's decision).

Rayo Vallecano

  • ❌ M. Kumbulla: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Luiz Felipe: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ D. Mendez: Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Batalla: Broken calfbone
  • ❌ I. Palazon: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. Vertrouwd: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ R. Nteka: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ F. Perez: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ J. de Frutos: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ P. Ciss: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ A. Ratiu: Muscle Injury

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