Predictions → Spain La Liga

Valencia vs Real Madrid

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 23:00 UTC+3 • Round 12 • Estadio de Mestalla • ☁️ 18.1°C, 4 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS: Yes
Model probability 61.7% · Market implied at best price ≈ 57.8% · EV at shown price +6.7%
Best odds 1.73 · Betfair Betano 1.72Bet365 1.67

Snapshotted at publish: Yes at 1.75 (61.8%, Model EV +8.1%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.

Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 10:09 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Away 1.4 → 1.36 ▼3% 1xBet1.3668.9% -6.3%
Double Chance X2 Bet3651.1086.2% -5.2%
BTTS Yes Betfair1.7361.7% · No 38.3% +6.7%
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Betano1.4465.7% · Under 34.3% -5.4%
Correct Score 1-2 Betano9.509.7% -7.9%
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.5 exp.) Over 9.5 Betano1.7557.4% · Under 42.6% +0.4%

🧠 Match Preview

Valencia · Home

Valencia have won just one of their last five, with the 1-0 win at Elche their only victory and a 0-0 home draw against Athletic Club among two clean sheets. They failed to score once in that run and their recent xG for of 1.09 sits below the model expected goals of 1.25.

Real Madrid · Away

Real Madrid have won all five recent matches, scoring 17 goals, including a 3-0 win at Racing Santander and a 2-1 win at Barcelona. Their recent xG for of 1.71 is lower than the model expected goals of 1.91.

Madrid's H2H edge

The latest head-to-head, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0-2 to Real Madrid at Valencia, and the prior meeting finished 4-0 in Madrid's favour. Valencia's recent home form includes a 1-2 loss to Villarreal and a 2-3 loss to Real Sociedad, while Madrid's five-match winning run produced 17 goals. The evidence supports Real Madrid win.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Valencia 1.25 – 1.91 Real Madrid · expected total 3.16

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Valencia

Form (last 5)
WLDDL
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Best league winning streak this season2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.09
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.86
Elo strength rating1466
Players out15

Real Madrid

Form (last 5)
WWWWW
Goals scored (season avg)2.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Best league winning streak this season8
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.71
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.30
Elo strength rating1760
Players out11
ValenciaReal Madrid
Goals scored (season avg)
0.70
2.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.70
1.00
Best league winning streak this season
2
8
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.09
1.71
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.86
1.30
Elo strength rating
1466
1760
Players out
15
11

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Valencia

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
5/6
No goals conceded
3/6

Real Madrid

Won 6 in a row Unbeaten 6
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored a goal
6/6
No goals conceded
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: La Liga

Valencia

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Real Madrid

2nd best attack (2.50 goals/game, season) 3rd best defence (1.00 conceded/game, season) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%, last 6)

Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Valencia at home · Real Madrid away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Valencia (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–4L
D 2
L 4
Played6
Goals scored (avg)0.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score4

Real Madrid (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–0D–2L
W 3
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets0
Failed to score1
Valencia (home)Real Madrid (away)
D 2
L 4
W 3
L 2
Played
6
5
Goals scored (avg)
0.50
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
1.40
Clean sheets
2
0
Failed to score
4
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–2
9.72%
0–2
7.8%
0–1
7.14%
1–3
6.19%
0–3
4.97%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Real Madrid 6 wins · 1 draw · Valencia 2 wins · avg 3.3 goals · BTTS in 5 of 9

6
1
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
08 Feb 2026 Valencia 0–2 Real Madrid La Liga
01 Nov 2025 Real Madrid 4–0 Valencia La Liga
05 Apr 2025 Real Madrid 1–2 Valencia La Liga
03 Jan 2025 Valencia 1–2 Real Madrid La Liga
02 Mar 2024 Valencia 2–2 Real Madrid La Liga
11 Nov 2023 Real Madrid 5–1 Valencia La Liga
21 May 2023 Valencia 1–0 Real Madrid La Liga
02 Feb 2023 Real Madrid 2–0 Valencia La Liga
08 Jan 2022 Real Madrid 4–1 Valencia La Liga

📈 Recent Form

Valencia

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Elche Away 1–0 W
24/10 Villarreal Home 1–2 L
17/10 Athletic Club Home 0–0 D
11/10 Racing Santander Away 2–2 D
20/09 Real Sociedad Home 2–3 L
15/09 Alaves Away 1–0 W
11/09 Sevilla Away 0–1 L
06/09 Barcelona Home 0–5 L
30/08 Deportivo La Coruna Away 1–3 L
25/08 Real Betis Home 0–1 L

Real Madrid

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01/11 Racing Santander Away 3–0 W
25/10 Barcelona Away 2–1 W
21/10 RB Leipzig Home 4–1 W
18/10 Sevilla Home 4–1 W
14/10 AS Roma Away 4–3 W
10/10 Villarreal Home 1–0 W
20/09 Atletico Madrid Away 1–2 L
15/09 Elche Away 3–2 W
12/09 Rayo Vallecano Home 4–1 W
08/09 Inter Home 2–1 W

📊 Season Comparison: La Liga

Valencia #19 · 9 pts ·  Real Madrid #3 · 27 pts

Valencia

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–6L
W 2
D 3
L 6
Played11
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets3
Failed to score5
Yellow cards25
Red cards1
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.09
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.86
Corners for (avg)4.20
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Real Madrid

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–0D–2L
W 9
L 2
Played11
Goals scored (avg)2.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score1
Yellow cards22
Red cards2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.71
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.30
Corners for (avg)7.10
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1
ValenciaReal Madrid
W 2
D 3
L 6
W 9
L 2
Played
11
11
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
2.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.70
1.00
Clean sheets
3
2
Failed to score
5
1
Yellow cards
25
22
Red cards
1
2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.09
1.71
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.86
1.30
Corners for (avg)
4.20
7.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
2/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Valencia

1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
8
76-90
1
scored conceded

Real Madrid

0-15
2
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
8
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Valencia

  • ❌ S. Canos: Knee Injury
  • ❌ J. Copete: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ D. Foulquier: Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Lopez: Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Mari: Leg Injury
  • ❌ L. Rioja: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ J. De Haas: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ P. Maffeo: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ G. Rodriguez: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ U. Sadiq: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ M. Diakhaby: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ C. Tarrega: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ H. Elliott: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ D. Otorbi: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ K. van Oevelen: Knee Injury

Real Madrid

  • ❌ R. Asencio: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Eder Militao: Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Endrick: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ F. Mendy: Hip Injury
  • ❌ T. Pitarch: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Rodrygo: Knee Injury
  • ❌ A. Tchouameni: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ D. Huijsen: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ T. Courtois: Illness
  • ❌ Vinicius Junior: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ F. Valverde: Hamstring Injury

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