San Diego vs Seattle Sounders

Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 • 02:30 UTC+3 • Round 31 • Snapdragon Stadium

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

BTTS — No

Model 48.7% · Market best price ≈ 33.3% · Edge +17.8 pp

Best odds 3.00 BetVictor 3.00Marathonbet 2.84William Hill 2.80

Bet this pick →

¼ Kelly sizing: 5.8% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	78%	40.9%	2.19	Pinnacle	44.5%	-3.6 pp
Double Chance	1X	70%	69.9%	1.39	Marathonbet	68%	+1.9 pp
BTTS	No	81%	49%	3.00	BetVictor	31.2%	+17.8 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	80%	47.7%	2.88	BetVictor	33%	+14.7 pp
Correct Score	1-0	67%	9.8%	13.75	Marathonbet	4.9%	+4.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~13.1 exp.)	Over 9.5	69%	58.9%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: San Diego 1.26 – 0.98 Seattle Sounders · expected total 2.24

🧠 Match Preview

San Diego host Seattle Sounders at Snapdragon Stadium in Round 31 of the MLS regular season, with the two clubs separated by eight points in the table. Seattle sit 7th on 41 points from 29 games, while San Diego are 13th on 33 from the same number of matches, so the visitors arrive with the stronger league position despite the long trip.

The model, though, leans home. San Diego's recent form reads DLDDL, but their recent expected goals of 2.08 dwarf their modelled scoring rate of 1.2028, suggesting the underlying attacking numbers are better than results have shown. Seattle's form is LWWWW and their recent xG of 1.75 is healthy, yet their modelled rate is just 1.0194. The head-to-head is mixed: a 1-1 draw in May 2026, a 1-0 Seattle win in May 2025 and a 3-0 San Diego win in April 2025. Both squads list extensive availability concerns, which adds noise to any read.

The primary tip is a home win at 39.7% probability against odds of 2.19, with a 1X double chance at 67.6% as the safer route. Under 2.5 goals is called at 48.4% (odds 2.88), BTTS No at 48.7% (odds 3), and the correct score model favours 1-0 at 9.4%, with 1-0 the top scoreline at 11.71. Corners offer the clearest edge: over 9.5 is tipped at 58.9% with an expected 13.1.

The honest caveat is that 39.7% is not a commanding home probability, and Seattle's four wins in five make the away side live at the price. Treat the home tip as a lean, not a lock.

Updated 18 Oct 2026, 12:51 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

San Diego

Form (last 5)

DLos Angeles Galaxy (A) 2–2 · 18/10/2026 DHouston Dynamo (H) 3–3 · 15/10/2026 LNew York Red Bulls (A) 1–4 · 10/10/2026 DAustin (A) 3–3 · 27/09/2026 DInter Miami (A) 2–2 · 20/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.80

Goals conceded (season avg)1.90

Win streak (best this season)3

xG for (recent avg)1.69

xG against (recent avg)1.83

Elo strength rating1516

Players out26

Seattle Sounders

Form (last 5)

DCF Montreal (H) 1–1 · 18/10/2026 LFC Dallas (A) 0–1 · 15/10/2026 WNew England Revolution (A) 3–0 · 10/10/2026 WSporting Kansas City (H) 2–1 · 02/10/2026 WMinnesota United FC (H) 3–1 · 27/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.20

Win streak (best this season)4

xG for (recent avg)1.27

xG against (recent avg)0.89

Elo strength rating1566

Players out18

San DiegoSeattle Sounders

DLos Angeles Galaxy (A) 2–2 · 18/10/2026 DHouston Dynamo (H) 3–3 · 15/10/2026 LNew York Red Bulls (A) 1–4 · 10/10/2026 DAustin (A) 3–3 · 27/09/2026 DInter Miami (A) 2–2 · 20/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.80

1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.90

1.20

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

1.69

1.27

xG against (recent avg)

1.83

0.89

Elo strength rating

1516

1566

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

San Diego

Winless 8

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

6/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Seattle Sounders

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Major League Soccer

San Diego

3rd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Seattle Sounders

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 30 Major League Soccer teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

San Diego at home · Seattle Sounders away — the split that matters for this fixture.

San Diego (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–4D–5L

W 6

D 4

L 5

Played15

Goals scored (avg)2.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.80

Clean sheets5

Failed to score1

Seattle Sounders (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–5D–6L

W 4

D 5

L 6

Played15

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.10

Clean sheets5

Failed to score4

San Diego (home)Seattle Sounders (away)

W 6

D 4

L 5

W 4

D 5

L 6

Played

Goals scored (avg)

2.30

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.80

1.10

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

9.8%

2–0

6.9%

2–1

6.7%

3–0

2.9%

3–1

2.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

San Diego 1 win · 1 draw · Seattle Sounders 1 win · avg 2 goals · BTTS in 1 of 3

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
10 May 2026	Seattle Sounders	1–1	San Diego	Major League Soccer
29 May 2025	Seattle Sounders	1–0	San Diego	Major League Soccer
06 Apr 2025	San Diego	3–0	Seattle Sounders	Major League Soccer

📈 Recent Form

San Diego

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
18/10	Los Angeles Galaxy	Away	2–2	D
15/10	Houston Dynamo	Home	3–3	D
10/10	New York Red Bulls	Away	1–4	L
27/09	Austin	Away	3–3	D
20/09	Inter Miami	Away	2–2	D

Seattle Sounders

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
18/10	CF Montreal	Home	1–1	D
15/10	FC Dallas	Away	0–1	L
10/10	New England Revolution	Away	3–0	W
02/10	Sporting Kansas City	Home	2–1	W
27/09	Minnesota United FC	Home	3–1	W

📊 Season Comparison — Major League Soccer

San Diego #12 · 34 pts — Seattle Sounders #7 · 42 pts

San Diego

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–10D–12L

W 8

D 10

L 12

Played30

Goals scored (avg)1.80

Goals conceded (avg)1.90

Clean sheets7

Failed to score5

Yellow cards60

Red cards8

xG for (avg)1.69

xG against (avg)1.83

Corners for (avg)6.30

Penalties (scored/missed)9/1

Seattle Sounders

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–9D–10L

W 11

D 9

L 10

Played30

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets8

Failed to score7

Yellow cards49

Red cards1

xG for (avg)1.27

xG against (avg)0.89

Corners for (avg)8.20

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

San DiegoSeattle Sounders

W 8

D 10

L 12

W 11

D 9

L 10

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.80

1.30

Goals conceded (avg)

1.90

1.20

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

1.69

1.27

xG against (avg)

1.83

0.89

Corners for (avg)

6.30

8.20

Penalties (scored/missed)

9/1

2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

San Diego

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Seattle Sounders

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

San Diego

❌ A. Alvarado Jr — Knee Injury
❌ E. Boateng — Lower-Body Injury
❌ W. Eisner — Lower-Body Injury
❌ W. Kumado — Lower-Body Injury
❌ A. Reyes — Lower-Body Injury
❌ P. Sisniega — Red Card
❌ K. Sargeant — Lower-Body Injury
❌ C. McVey — Red Card
❌ A. Pellegrino — Lower-Body Injury
❌ I. Pilcher — Lower-Body Injury
❌ M. Duah — Red Card
❌ L. Bombino — Lower-Body Injury
❌ P. Soma — Lower-Body Injury
❌ J. Tverskov — Lower-Body Injury
❌ C. J. dos Santos — Injury
❌ A. Godoy — Lower-Body Injury
❌ A. Dreyer — Red Card
❌ M. Alstrup — Lower-Body Injury
❌ M. Ingvartsen — Injury
❌ Gabriel Pirani — Injury
❌ A. Mighten — Lower-Body Injury
❌ O. Verhoeven — Yellow Cards
❌ E. Achouri — International duty
❌ O. Valakari — International duty
❌ S. Vines — Lower-Body Injury
❌ O. Soe — Lower-Body Injury
❓ L. Morgan (doubtful) — Thigh Injury
❓ D. Vazquez (doubtful) — Lower-Body Injury

Seattle Sounders

❌ S. Hawkins — Inactive
❌ Kim Kee-Hee — Calf Injury
❌ R. Sailor — Knee Injury
❌ P. de La Vega — Knee Injury
❌ J. Morris — Injury
❌ H. Dotson — Concussion
❌ Y. Gomez Andrade — Muscle Injury
❌ N. Petkovic — Knee Injury
❌ C. Roldan — Concussion
❌ A. Rusnak — Hamstring Injury
❌ A. Roldan — Hamstring Injury
❌ P. Arriola — Groin Injury
❌ J. Ragen — Yellow Cards
❌ J. Ferreira — Injury
❌ X. Gnaulati — Injury
❌ P. Kingston — Yellow Cards
❌ D. Joveljic — International duty
❌ S. Brunell — International duty
❓ G. Minoungou (doubtful) — Foot Injury
❓ P. Rothrock (doubtful) — Foot Injury

More: Major League Soccer predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws