Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 22:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 31 β€’ Arena da Baixada β€’ ☁️ 14.3Β°C, 9 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 75% 32% 2.52 Betano 38.9% -6.9 pp
Double Chance 12 69% 68.9% 1.36 Bet365 71.8% -2.9 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 50.1% 1.80 William Hill 52% -1.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 48.7% 1.79 1xBet 54% -5.3 pp
Correct Score 1-2 61% 6.1% 10.00 Bet365 4.9% +1.2 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 62% 27.3% 3.38 1xBet 28.2% -0.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.6 exp.) Over 9.5 65% 56.2% 1.55 Betano 60.3% -4.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.40 – 1.28 Palmeiras Β· expected total 2.68

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Second-placed Palmeiras travel to the Arena da Baixada to face fourth-placed Atletico Paranaense in Round 31, a fixture with real weight at both ends of the Serie A table. Palmeiras arrive on 60 points from 29 games, Athletico on 50 from the same number, so the visitors carry the stronger league position into this one.

The model leans on recent form and chance creation. Palmeiras have won four of their last five (WDWWD), while Athletico have stuttered with DWDLD. Recent expected goals favour the away side too: 1.91 for Palmeiras against 1.38 for Athletico, though the season-long figures are far tighter at 1.2848 and 1.3954 respectively. Both squads are heavily depleted, with long injury lists on either side, which adds noise to any read on this match.

The headline tip is an away win at 32 percent, priced at 2.52, with confidence marked at 75. The double chance covering draw and away lands at 68.9 percent. Both teams to score is a near coin-flip at 50.1 percent and odds of 1.8, while Under 2.5 goals sits at 48.7 percent and 1.79. The most likely correct score is 1-2 at 7.9 percent, with 0-1 close behind at 7.59. Corners look interesting: an expected 11.6 and 56.2 percent for Over 9.5.

The honest caveat is that 32 percent is not a dominant edge, and the draw carries 27.3 percent at 62 confidence. With so many absences and a tight xG gap, the away price is fair rather than generous.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Atletico Paranaense

Form (last 5)
DAtletico-MG (H) 2–2 Β· 08/10/2026WBahia (H) 2–1 Β· 20/09/2026DCoritiba (A) 3–3 Β· 12/09/2026LCruzeiro (A) 1–3 Β· 06/09/2026DFluminense (H) 3–3 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)0.64
xG against (recent avg)1.00
Elo strength rating1409
Players out25

Palmeiras

Form (last 5)
WBahia (H) 1–0 Β· 09/10/2026DGremio (A) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026WSao Paulo (H) 2–0 Β· 12/09/2026WLDU de Quito (H) 1–0 Β· 09/09/2026DBotafogo (A) 0–0 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)0.70
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)0.75
xG against (recent avg)0.47
Elo strength rating1728
Players out24
Atletico ParanaensePalmeiras
Goals scored (season avg)
1.60
1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
0.70
Win streak (best this season)
4
5
xG for (recent avg)
0.64
0.75
xG against (recent avg)
1.00
0.47
Elo strength rating
1409
1728
Players out
25
24

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Atletico Paranaense

Unbeaten 3
BTTS
6/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Palmeiras

Unbeaten 10
BTTS
0/6
Over 2.5
0/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
6/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Atletico Paranaense

Best BTTS rate (100%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Palmeiras

2nd best attack (1.70 goals/game) Best defence (0.70 conceded/game) Worst BTTS rate (0%) Worst Over 2.5 rate (0%) Best clean sheets (13)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Atletico Paranaense at home Β· Palmeiras away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Atletico Paranaense (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–5D–1L
W 9
D 5
L 1
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets5
Failed to score2

Palmeiras (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–6D–2L
W 7
D 6
L 2
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets7
Failed to score3
Atletico Paranaense (home)Palmeiras (away)
W 9
D 5
L 1
W 7
D 6
L 2
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
0.80
Clean sheets
5
7
Failed to score
2
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–2
6.1%
0–1
5.9%
0–2
4.4%
1–3
2.6%
0–3
1.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Atletico Paranaense 3 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Palmeiras 5 wins Β· avg 2.3 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 10

3
2
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
19 Apr 2026 Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
01 Sep 2024 Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras Serie A
12 May 2024 Palmeiras 0–2 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
05 Nov 2023 Palmeiras 1–0 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
02 Jul 2023 Atletico Paranaense 2–2 Palmeiras Serie A
26 Oct 2022 Atletico Paranaense 1–3 Palmeiras Serie A
07 Sep 2022 Palmeiras 2–2 Atletico Paranaense CONMEBOL Libertadores
31 Aug 2022 Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Palmeiras CONMEBOL Libertadores
03 Jul 2022 Palmeiras 0–2 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
03 Mar 2022 Palmeiras 2–0 Atletico Paranaense CONMEBOL Recopa

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Atletico Paranaense

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
08/10 Atletico-MG Home 2–2 D
20/09 Bahia Home 2–1 W
12/09 Coritiba Away 3–3 D
06/09 Cruzeiro Away 1–3 L
30/08 Fluminense Home 3–3 D

Palmeiras

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 Bahia Home 1–0 W
20/09 Gremio Away 0–0 D
12/09 Sao Paulo Home 2–0 W
09/09 LDU de Quito Home 1–0 W
06/09 Botafogo Away 0–0 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Atletico Paranaense #4 Β· 50 pts β€”  Palmeiras #2 Β· 60 pts

Atletico Paranaense

Wins–Draws–Losses14W–8D–7L
W 14
D 8
L 7
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets8
Failed to score6
Yellow cards57
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.64
xG against (avg)1.00
Corners for (avg)4.30
Penalties (scored/missed)5/1

Palmeiras

Wins–Draws–Losses17W–9D–3L
W 17
D 9
L 3
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets13
Failed to score4
Yellow cards65
Red cards5
xG for (avg)0.75
xG against (avg)0.47
Corners for (avg)8.20
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
Atletico ParanaensePalmeiras
W 14
D 8
L 7
W 17
D 9
L 3
Played
29
29
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
0.70
Clean sheets
8
13
Failed to score
6
4
Yellow cards
57
65
Red cards
2
5
xG for (avg)
0.64
0.75
xG against (avg)
1.00
0.47
Corners for (avg)
4.30
8.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
5/1
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Atletico Paranaense

5
0-15
12
7
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
1
46-60
11
3
61-75
4
11
76-90
11
scored conceded

Palmeiras

2
0-15
8
1
16-30
9
5
31-45
6
6
46-60
8
3
61-75
9
5
76-90
7
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Atletico Paranaense

  • ❌ Felipinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luiz Gustavo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Renan Peixoto β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Garcia Castillo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Isaac β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Teran β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ B. Zapelli β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Bruninho β€” International duty
  • ❌ Arthur Dias β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Chiqueti β€” Illness
  • ❌ G. Benavidez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gilberto Junior β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Julimar β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jadson β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ L. Esquivel β€” Red Card
  • ❌ K. Viveros β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ J. Portilla β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Leo Derik β€” Injury
  • ❌ Mycael β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Dantas β€” Suspended
  • ❌ Claudinho β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Santos β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gilberto β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ F. Aguirre β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Joao Cruz β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❓ Renan Viana (doubtful) β€” Inactive

Palmeiras

  • ❌ Felipe Anderson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Figueiredo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Evangelista β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Paulinho β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ J. Arias β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Mauricio β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Murilo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Vitor Roque β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Piquerez β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jefte β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marlon Freitas β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Allan Elias β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Benedetti β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Bruno Fuchs β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ R. Sosa β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Andreas Pereira β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Carlos Miguel β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Giay β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Gomez β€” International duty
  • ❌ J. Lopez β€” International duty
  • ❌ E. Martinez β€” International duty
  • ❌ A. Barboza β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Khellven β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Arthur Gabriel β€” Red Card

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws