Botafogo vs Chapecoense-sc

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 • 21:00 UTC+3 • Round 31 • Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos • 🌦 22.3°C, 14 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

Over/Under 2.5 — Under 2.5

Model 53.7% · Market best price ≈ 41.3% · Edge +13.5 pp

Best odds 2.42 Betano 2.421xBet 2.37Bet365 2.35

Bet this pick →

¼ Kelly sizing: 5.3% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly — confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	90%	71.5%	1.44	Betano	70.7%	+0.8 pp
Double Chance	1X	78%	81.5%	1.12	Betano	88.7%	-7.2 pp
BTTS	No	82%	50.4%	2.00	Bet365	46.8%	+3.6 pp
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	83%	53.5%	2.42	Betano	40%	+13.5 pp
Correct Score	1-0	77%	15.6%	9.00	Betfair	5.6%	+10 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.5 exp.)	Under 9.5	63%	54.4%	2.25	Betano	41.6%	+12.8 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Botafogo 1.31 – 0.59 Chapecoense-sc · expected total 1.90

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Botafogo host Chapecoense-sc at the Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos in Round 31 of Serie A, and the stakes are lopsided. The home side sit 13th on 36 points from 30 games, while the visitors are bottom of the table, 20th, with just 18 points from 28. This is a fixture where the market expects the gap in class to tell.

The model sees a clear home edge. Botafogo's recent form reads DLLWD, Chapecoense's LDDLW, and the expected goals split is emphatic: 1.3148 for the hosts against 0.589 for the away side. Recent xG offers a note of caution, with Botafogo at 1.11 and Chapecoense at 1.25, suggesting the visitors have been creating more than their season numbers imply. The head-to-head is mixed, including a 2-0 Chapecoense win in May, though Botafogo won the other two 2026 meetings.

The headline tip is a Home win at 71.5% probability, priced at 1.44, with double chance 1X at 81.5%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 50.4% (odds 2), and Under 2.5 goals at 53.5% (odds 2.42). The most likely correct score is 1-0 at 15.6%, with 2-0 next at 12.88%. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 54.4%, with an expected 8.5.

The value question is thin: at 1.44 the home win offers little margin, so the 2.42 on Under 2.5 and the 2.00 on BTTS No are where the model diverges most from the price. The honest caveat is the injury list, which is enormous on both sides, and Chapecoense's recent xG of 1.25, which warns that a clean sheet is far from guaranteed.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 16:10 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Botafogo

Form (last 5)

DCoritiba (A) 1–1 · 12/10/2026 LVasco DA Gama (H) 1–2 · 07/10/2026 LMirassol (A) 0–2 · 19/09/2026 WGremio (H) 3–2 · 16/09/2026 DRB Bragantino (H) 1–1 · 12/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.40

Goals conceded (season avg)1.60

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)0.64

xG against (recent avg)0.46

Elo strength rating1535

Players out29

Chapecoense-sc

Form (last 5)

LVitoria (A) 0–4 · 07/10/2026DAtletico Nacional (A) 1–1 · 26/09/2026DAtletico-MG (A) 1–1 · 19/09/2026 LInternacional (H) 1–2 · 12/09/2026 WCorinthians (A) 2–1 · 06/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)2.00

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)1.01

xG against (recent avg)1.06

Elo strength rating1303

Players out25

BotafogoChapecoense-sc

DCoritiba (A) 1–1 · 12/10/2026 LVasco DA Gama (H) 1–2 · 07/10/2026 LMirassol (A) 0–2 · 19/09/2026 WGremio (H) 3–2 · 16/09/2026 DRB Bragantino (H) 1–1 · 12/09/2026

LVitoria (A) 0–4 · 07/10/2026DAtletico Nacional (A) 1–1 · 26/09/2026DAtletico-MG (A) 1–1 · 19/09/2026 LInternacional (H) 1–2 · 12/09/2026 WCorinthians (A) 2–1 · 06/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.40

1.00

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.60

2.00

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.64

1.01

xG against (recent avg)

0.46

1.06

Elo strength rating

1535

1303

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Botafogo

Winless 3

BTTS

4/6

Over 2.5

2/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Chapecoense-sc

Winless 4

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

5/6

Clean sheets

0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Serie A

Botafogo

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Chapecoense-sc

2nd worst attack (1.00 goals/game) Worst defence (2.00 conceded/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd worst clean sheets (2)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Botafogo at home · Chapecoense-sc away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Botafogo (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–6D–4L

W 5

D 6

L 4

Played15

Goals scored (avg)1.70

Goals conceded (avg)1.50

Clean sheets3

Failed to score3

Chapecoense-sc (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–4D–10L

W 1

D 4

L 10

Played15

Goals scored (avg)0.70

Goals conceded (avg)1.90

Clean sheets0

Failed to score6

Botafogo (home)Chapecoense-sc (away)

W 5

D 6

L 4

W 1

D 4

L 10

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.70

0.70

Goals conceded (avg)

1.50

1.90

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0

15.6%

2–0

10.9%

2–1

6.4%

3–0

4.8%

3–1

2.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Botafogo 7 wins · 1 draw · Chapecoense-sc 2 wins · avg 1.8 goals · BTTS in 2 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
14 May 2026	Chapecoense-sc	2–0	Botafogo	Copa Do Brasil
21 Apr 2026	Botafogo	1–0	Chapecoense-sc	Copa Do Brasil
18 Apr 2026	Chapecoense-sc	1–4	Botafogo	Serie A
27 Nov 2019	Chapecoense-SC	0–1	Botafogo	Serie A
26 Aug 2019	Botafogo	0–0	Chapecoense-SC	Serie A
15 Nov 2018	Chapecoense-sc	0–1	Botafogo	Serie A
26 Jul 2018	Botafogo	1–0	Chapecoense-sc	Serie A
11 Oct 2017	Botafogo	2–1	Chapecoense-sc	Serie A
18 Jun 2017	Chapecoense-sc	0–2	Botafogo	Serie A
16 Nov 2016	Botafogo	0–2	Chapecoense-sc	Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Botafogo

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
12/10	Coritiba	Away	1–1	D
07/10	Vasco DA Gama	Home	1–2	L
19/09	Mirassol	Away	0–2	L
16/09	Gremio	Home	3–2	W
12/09	RB Bragantino	Home	1–1	D

Chapecoense-sc

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
07/10	Vitoria	Away	0–4	L
26/09	Atletico Nacional	Away	1–1	D
19/09	Atletico-MG	Away	1–1	D
12/09	Internacional	Home	1–2	L
06/09	Corinthians	Away	2–1	W

📊 Season Comparison — Serie A

Botafogo #13 · 36 pts — Chapecoense-sc #20 · 18 pts

Botafogo

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–9D–12L

W 9

D 9

L 12

Played30

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets4

Failed to score7

Yellow cards79

Red cards3

xG for (avg)0.64

xG against (avg)0.46

Corners for (avg)4.00

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Chapecoense-sc

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–9D–16L

W 3

D 9

L 16

Played28

Goals scored (avg)1.00

Goals conceded (avg)2.00

Clean sheets2

Failed to score9

Yellow cards64

Red cards2

xG for (avg)1.01

xG against (avg)1.06

Corners for (avg)3.80

Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

BotafogoChapecoense-sc

W 9

D 9

L 12

W 3

D 9

L 16

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.40

1.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.60

2.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.64

1.01

xG against (avg)

0.46

1.06

Corners for (avg)

4.00

3.80

Penalties (scored/missed)

2/0

2/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Botafogo

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Chapecoense-sc

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Botafogo

❌ J. Correa — Inactive
❌ C. Ramos — Inactive
❌ Marcal — Knee Injury
❌ Bastos — Inactive
❌ Kaio Pantaleao — Inactive
❌ M. Ponte — Inactive
❌ S. Rodriguez — Injury
❌ Allan — Yellow Cards
❌ A. Barboza — Red Card
❌ C. Medina — Red Card
❌ Newton — Shoulder Injury
❌ Danilo — International duty
❌ N. Ferraresi — International duty
❌ Alex Telles — Injury
❌ Nathan Fernandes — Injury
❌ L. M. Villalba Jaume — Inactive
❌ Junior Santos — Injury
❌ Vitinho — Yellow Cards
❌ Matheus Martins — Injury
❌ Arthur Cabral — Injury
❌ A. Montoro — Yellow Cards
❌ Huguinho — Yellow Cards
❌ J. Barrera — Injury
❌ G. Justino — Yellow Cards
❌ Paulinho — Injury
❌ Warleson — Injury
❌ K. Barria — Yellow Cards
❌ Arthur Chaves — Inactive
❌ L. Monzon — Inactive

Chapecoense-sc

❌ Bruno Matias — Knee Injury
❌ Mancha — Knee Injury
❌ Neto Pessoa — Inactive
❌ Rafael Thyere — Inactive
❌ Robert Conceicao — Inactive
❌ Marcos Vinicius — Inactive
❌ Mauricio Garcez — Inactive
❌ Camilo Reijers — Loan agreement
❌ Everton — Red Card
❌ Giovanni Augusto — Injury
❌ Italo — Injury
❌ Eduardo Doma — Red Card
❌ Bruno Leonardo — Yellow Cards
❌ Kauan — Inactive
❌ Y. Bolasie — Yellow Cards
❌ Victor Caetano — Calf Injury
❌ Anderson — Injury
❌ Joao Paulo — Injury
❌ Max Alves — Injury
❌ Rafael Carvalheira — Inactive
❌ Bruno Tubarao — Inactive
❌ Bruno Pacheco — Yellow Cards
❌ Vinicius Balieiro — Inactive
❌ Heitor — Hamstring Injury
❌ Fernando — Yellow Cards
❓ Dudu Marques (doubtful) — Inactive

More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws