Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Vasco DA Gama vs Corinthians

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 21:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 32 β€’ SΓ£o JanuΓ‘rio β€’ ☁️ 22.1Β°C, 9 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 85% 60.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 78% 80.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 48.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 69% 10.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.9 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 55% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Vasco DA Gama 1.67 – 0.78 Corinthians Β· expected total 2.45

🧠 Match Preview

Vasco da Gama host Corinthians at SΓ£o JanuΓ‘rio in Round 32 with both clubs stuck in mid-table β€” 14th versus 16th, separated by just three points (35 to 32). It is a fixture where the home side can pull clear of a direct rival, and the form book could hardly be more lopsided: Vasco arrive on a WDWWW run, while Corinthians have lost five straight (LLLLL).

The model leans heavily on that contrast. Vasco's expected goals sit at 1.6674 against Corinthians' 0.7828, and the recent attacking numbers reinforce it β€” 2.54 xG for the hosts versus 1.6 for the visitors. The headline call is a home win at 60.4% with 85 confidence, and the double chance 1X is priced at 80.7%. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.3%, while Over 2.5 lands at 47%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 10.8%, with 2-0 (12.01) and 2-1 (9.4) close behind in the top-scores list. Corners point Over 9.5, with an expected 10.9 and 55% probability.

The value question is where the bookmaker odds sit against those percentages β€” if Vasco are priced anywhere near even money, the 60.4% model probability makes the home win the obvious play, and the 1X at 80.7% is the safer anchor. The honest caveat: both squads are ravaged by absences, and Corinthians' recent xG of 1.6 suggests they still create chances despite the losing run, so a low-scoring upset or a 1-1 grind is a real risk.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 05:08 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Vasco DA Gama

Form (last 5)
WBoca Juniors (A) 1–0 Β· 14/10/2026DRemo (H) 0–0 Β· 10/10/2026WBotafogo (A) 2–1 Β· 07/10/2026WCoritiba (H) 5–0 Β· 19/09/2026WSanta Fe (H) 2–0 Β· 15/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.63
xG against (recent avg)0.36
Elo strength rating1497
Players out20

Corinthians

Form (last 5)
LPalmeiras (A) 1–4 Β· 11/10/2026LInternacional (A) 1–2 Β· 07/10/2026LFluminense (H) 1–3 Β· 20/09/2026LEstudiantes L.P. (H) 0–1 Β· 17/09/2026LFlamengo (A) 1–2 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.78
xG against (recent avg)1.21
Elo strength rating1364
Players out30
Vasco DA GamaCorinthians
WBoca Juniors (A) 1–0 Β· 14/10/2026DRemo (H) 0–0 Β· 10/10/2026WBotafogo (A) 2–1 Β· 07/10/2026WCoritiba (H) 5–0 Β· 19/09/2026WSanta Fe (H) 2–0 Β· 15/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)
1.20
1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
3
3
xG for (recent avg)
1.63
0.78
xG against (recent avg)
0.36
1.21
Elo strength rating
1497
1364
Players out
20
30

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Vasco DA Gama

Unbeaten 7
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Corinthians

Lost 5 in a row Winless 9
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Vasco DA Gama

2nd worst BTTS rate (33%)

Corinthians

2nd worst attack (1.00 goals/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Vasco DA Gama at home Β· Corinthians away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Vasco DA Gama (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–3D–5L
W 7
D 3
L 5
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets3
Failed to score5

Corinthians (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–5D–7L
W 3
D 5
L 7
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Vasco DA Gama (home)Corinthians (away)
W 7
D 3
L 5
W 3
D 5
L 7
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.50
Clean sheets
3
4
Failed to score
5
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.8%
2–0
9.8%
2–1
7.6%
3–0
5.4%
3–1
4.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Corinthians 7 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Vasco DA Gama 1 win Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

7
2
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
26 Apr 2026 Corinthians 1–0 Vasco DA Gama Serie A
21 Dec 2025 Vasco DA Gama 1–2 Corinthians Copa Do Brasil
18 Dec 2025 Corinthians 0–0 Vasco DA Gama Copa Do Brasil
24 Aug 2025 Vasco DA Gama 2–3 Corinthians Serie A
05 Apr 2025 Corinthians 3–0 Vasco DA Gama Serie A
24 Nov 2024 Corinthians 3–1 Vasco DA Gama Serie A
10 Jul 2024 Vasco DA Gama 2–0 Corinthians Serie A
29 Nov 2023 Vasco DA Gama 2–4 Corinthians Serie A
29 Jul 2023 Corinthians 3–1 Vasco DA Gama Serie A
21 Feb 2021 Corinthians 0–0 Vasco DA Gama Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Vasco DA Gama

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
14/10 Boca Juniors Away 1–0 W
10/10 Remo Home 0–0 D
07/10 Botafogo Away 2–1 W
19/09 Coritiba Home 5–0 W
15/09 Santa Fe Home 2–0 W

Corinthians

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Palmeiras Away 1–4 L
07/10 Internacional Away 1–2 L
20/09 Fluminense Home 1–3 L
17/09 Estudiantes L.P. Home 0–1 L
13/09 Flamengo Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Vasco DA Gama #14 Β· 35 pts β€”  Corinthians #16 Β· 32 pts

Vasco DA Gama

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–8D–12L
W 9
D 8
L 12
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets4
Failed to score9
Yellow cards57
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.63
xG against (avg)0.36
Corners for (avg)6.70
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Corinthians

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–8D–14L
W 8
D 8
L 14
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets10
Failed to score7
Yellow cards79
Red cards4
xG for (avg)0.78
xG against (avg)1.21
Corners for (avg)4.70
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Vasco DA GamaCorinthians
W 9
D 8
L 12
W 8
D 8
L 14
Played
29
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.30
Clean sheets
4
10
Failed to score
9
7
Yellow cards
57
79
Red cards
2
4
xG for (avg)
1.63
0.78
xG against (avg)
0.36
1.21
Corners for (avg)
6.70
4.70
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Vasco DA Gama

4
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
6
9
46-60
8
8
61-75
6
9
76-90
13
scored conceded

Corinthians

5
0-15
4
5
16-30
5
10
31-45
2
6
46-60
9
2
61-75
3
8
76-90
10
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Vasco DA Gama

  • ❌ Brenner β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Hinestroza β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Jair β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Paulo Henrique β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Cuiabano β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Hugo Moura β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Cuesta β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Mateus Carvalho β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Thiago Mendes β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Cauan Barros β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Andres Gomez β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ J. Rodriguez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Spinelli β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Saldivia β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Adson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Rojas β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ N. Moreira β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Robert Renan β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Tche Tche β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Bruno Duarte β€” Injury
  • ❓ F. Colidio (doubtful) β€” Injury

Corinthians

  • ❌ J. Martinez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Hugo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Kaio Cesar β€” Injury
  • ❌ Breno Bidon β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Yuri Alberto β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Pereira β€” Injury
  • ❌ Felipe Longo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Carrillo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Depay β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gabriel Paulista β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Allan β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Gui Negao β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Raniele β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Joao Pedro β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Matheus Bidu β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Andre Ramalho β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Charles Rigon β€” Inactive
  • ❌ P. Milans β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Andre β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Hugo Souza β€” Suspended
  • ❌ Kayke β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Gustavo Henrique β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Matheuzinho β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Vitinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Lingard β€” Personal Reasons
  • ❌ Alex Santana β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ F. Angileri β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Z. Labyad β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ R. Garro β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Dieguinho β€” Inactive

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws