Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Coritiba vs Gremio

Next match: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 β€’ 22:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 32 β€’ EstΓ‘dio Couto Pereira β€’ ☁️ 14.3Β°C, 10 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 75% 33.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 69% 68.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 80% 48.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 84% 54.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 69% 10.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 74% 28.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) Over 9.5 62% 53.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Coritiba 1.11 – 0.92 Gremio Β· expected total 2.03

🧠 Match Preview

Coritiba host Gremio at EstΓ‘dio Couto Pereira in Round 32 of Serie A, with both sides stuck in the wrong half of the table. Coritiba sit 11th on 39 points from 30 games, while Gremio are 18th on 31 points from 30 β€” a gap that flatters the visitors' desperation more than their form.

The model sees two blunt attacks. Coritiba's recent expected goals read just 0.76, Gremio's even lower at 0.62, and the match lambdas sit at 1.1102 for the hosts and 0.9231 for the away side. Form is grim on both sides: Coritiba arrive on DLLDL, Gremio on DDDLL. The head-to-head leans Gremio historically, including a 1-0 win in April 2026, but recent meetings have been tighter. Both squads are heavily depleted, with long injury lists on either side.

The tips reflect a low-scoring, cautious affair. The model favours Coritiba to win at 33.5 percent with confidence 75, and the double chance 1X lands at 68.6 percent β€” the safer play. Under 2.5 goals is tipped at 54.1 percent, and BTTS Yes sits at 48.2 percent, meaning the model actually leans against both teams scoring. The correct score of 1-0 carries 10.8 percent, with 1-0 the top individual scoreline at 13.19. Corners are expected to tick over 9.5 at 53.2 percent, with an expected 10.

Value may hide in the draw, priced at 28.7 percent with confidence 74, and in the 1X double chance if bookmakers overrate Gremio's need for points. The honest caveat: with two such depleted, low-xG sides, this is a fixture where a single set piece or error can flip everything, and the model's home lean is far from dominant.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:11 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Coritiba

Form (last 5)
DBotafogo (H) 1–1 Β· 12/10/2026LFluminense (A) 0–4 Β· 09/10/2026LVasco DA Gama (A) 0–5 Β· 19/09/2026DAtletico Paranaense (H) 3–3 Β· 12/09/2026LMirassol (H) 1–2 Β· 06/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.43
xG against (recent avg)1.78
Elo strength rating1338
Players out25

Gremio

Form (last 5)
DInternacional (H) 1–1 Β· 11/10/2026DRemo (A) 1–1 Β· 07/10/2026DPalmeiras (H) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026LBotafogo (A) 2–3 Β· 16/09/2026LVasco DA Gama (H) 1–2 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.27
xG against (recent avg)0.50
Elo strength rating1488
Players out31
CoritibaGremio
Goals scored (season avg)
1.30
1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.60
1.30
Win streak (best this season)
3
1
xG for (recent avg)
0.43
0.27
xG against (recent avg)
1.78
0.50
Elo strength rating
1338
1488
Players out
25
31

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Coritiba

Winless 5
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Gremio

Unbeaten 3 Winless 6
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Coritiba

2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Gremio

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Coritiba at home Β· Gremio away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Coritiba (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–5D–5L
W 5
D 5
L 5
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3

Gremio (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–5D–10L
D 5
L 10
Played15
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets2
Failed to score7
Coritiba (home)Gremio (away)
W 5
D 5
L 5
D 5
L 10
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.50
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
3
7

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
10.8%
2–0
6.6%
2–1
6.1%
3–0
2.4%
3–1
2.3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Coritiba 1 win Β· 2 draws Β· Gremio 7 wins Β· avg 2.4 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

1
2
7
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
26 Apr 2026 Gremio 1–0 Coritiba Serie A
01 Nov 2023 Coritiba 1–2 Gremio Serie A
25 Jun 2023 Gremio 5–1 Coritiba Serie A
31 Jan 2021 Coritiba 1–1 Gremio Serie A
07 Oct 2020 Gremio 2–1 Coritiba Serie A
15 Oct 2017 Coritiba 0–1 Gremio Serie A
23 Jun 2017 Gremio 2–0 Coritiba Serie A
08 Sep 2016 Coritiba 4–0 Gremio Serie A
29 May 2016 Gremio 2–0 Coritiba Serie A
30 Aug 2015 Gremio 0–0 Coritiba Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Coritiba

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
12/10 Botafogo Home 1–1 D
09/10 Fluminense Away 0–4 L
19/09 Vasco DA Gama Away 0–5 L
12/09 Atletico Paranaense Home 3–3 D
06/09 Mirassol Home 1–2 L

Gremio

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Internacional Home 1–1 D
07/10 Remo Away 1–1 D
20/09 Palmeiras Home 0–0 D
16/09 Botafogo Away 2–3 L
12/09 Vasco DA Gama Home 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Coritiba #11 Β· 39 pts β€”  Gremio #18 Β· 31 pts

Coritiba

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–9D–11L
W 10
D 9
L 11
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets6
Failed to score9
Yellow cards53
Red cards8
xG for (avg)0.43
xG against (avg)1.78
Corners for (avg)4.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Gremio

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–10D–13L
W 7
D 10
L 13
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets6
Failed to score10
Yellow cards81
Red cards4
xG for (avg)0.27
xG against (avg)0.50
Corners for (avg)2.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
CoritibaGremio
W 10
D 9
L 11
W 7
D 10
L 13
Played
30
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.30
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
1.60
1.30
Clean sheets
6
6
Failed to score
9
10
Yellow cards
53
81
Red cards
8
4
xG for (avg)
0.43
0.27
xG against (avg)
1.78
0.50
Corners for (avg)
4.50
2.50
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Coritiba

4
0-15
2
9
16-30
4
5
31-45
8
8
46-60
8
13
61-75
7
11
76-90
7
scored conceded

Gremio

2
0-15
2
7
16-30
3
6
31-45
5
9
46-60
11
11
61-75
5
6
76-90
5
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Coritiba

  • ❌ Lucas Crepaldi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rodrigo Rodrigues β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Josue β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Wallisson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Benassi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ S. Gomez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Pedro Morisco β€” Injury
  • ❌ Tinga β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jacy β€” Injury
  • ❌ Maicon β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Keno β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Lavega β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gustavo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Renato Marques β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Breno Lopes β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Bruno Melo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Fabinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Keiller β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Thiago Santos β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Joao Pedro Chermont β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Lucas Ronier β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Vini Paulista β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Pedro Rangel β€” Inactive
  • ❌ B. Ocampo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Lucas Taverna β€” Inactive
  • ❓ Tiago Coser (doubtful) β€” Inactive

Gremio

  • ❌ M. Braithwaite β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Villasanti β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Walter Kannemann β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Perez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Wagner Leonardo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Arthur Melo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Willian β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gustavo Martins β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Joao Pedro β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marlon β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Caio Paulista β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ E. Noriega β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Viery β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Carlos Vinicius β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Roger β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ J. Nardoni β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Riquelme β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Fabian Balbuena β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ C. Pavon β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Andre Henrique β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gabriel Mec β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Pedro Gabriel β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gabriel Grando β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luis Eduardo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Weverton β€” International duty
  • ❌ Tete β€” Injury
  • ❌ Dodi β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Diego Caito β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ J. Cabral β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Matheus Nascimento β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Wallace β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❓ M. Monsalve (doubtful) β€” Injury
  • ❓ F. Amuzu (doubtful) β€” Inactive

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws