Flamengo vs Gremio
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 • 01:30 UTC+3 • Round 34 • Estádio do Maracanã • ⛅ 26°C, 5 km/h partly cloudy
Snapshotted at publish: Under 9.5 at 2.50 (53.7%, Model EV +34.3%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.22 → 1.2 ▼2% | Betano1.20 | 77.4% | -7.1% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.05 | 91.6% | -3.8% |
| BTTS | No | William Hill1.80 | 47.1% · Yes 52.9% | -15.2% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Betfair3.10 | 35.6% · Over 64.4% | +10.4% |
| Correct Score | 2-0 | Bet3657.50 | 10.7% | -19.8% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Betano2.50 | 53.7% · Over 46.3% | +34.3% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Flamengo · Home
Flamengo are unbeaten across their last five with 3 wins, and their 3-0 win at Bahia shows they can dominate away from home. Their recent xG for over those matches was 0.92, well below the model expected goals of 1.95, so the forecast leans on more than recent shot quality.
Gremio · Away
Gremio have scored in each of their last five, including a 2-0 win over Atletico Paranaense, but their 2-4 home loss to Cruzeiro is the outlier in an otherwise tight run. Their recent xG for was 1.51 against a model expected goals of 0.93.
Flamengo's H2H edge holds
The latest head-to-head, on 10 May 2026, ended 0-1 to Flamengo away from home, and the 2025 meeting in Rio finished 1-1. Flamengo have now avoided defeat in all three supplied meetings, keeping Gremio scoreless in two of them. Gremio's recent scoring record keeps this from being a formality, but the H2H pattern and Flamengo's three clean sheets in five support a controlled home result rather than a shootout. The evidence supports Flamengo win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Flamengo 1.95 – 0.93 Gremio · expected total 2.88
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Flamengo
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Flamengo
Gremio
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A
Flamengo
Gremio
Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Flamengo at home · Gremio away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Flamengo (home)
Gremio (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Flamengo 6 wins · 2 draws · Gremio 2 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 May 2026 | Gremio | 0–1 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Flamengo | 1–1 | Gremio | Serie A |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Gremio | 0–2 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 23 Sep 2024 | Gremio | 3–2 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 14 Jun 2024 | Flamengo | 2–1 | Gremio | Serie A |
| 26 Oct 2023 | Gremio | 3–2 | Flamengo | Serie A |
| 17 Aug 2023 | Flamengo | 1–0 | Gremio | Copa Do Brasil |
| 27 Jul 2023 | Gremio | 0–2 | Flamengo | Copa Do Brasil |
| 12 Jun 2023 | Flamengo | 3–0 | Gremio | Serie A |
| 24 Nov 2021 | Gremio | 2–2 | Flamengo | Serie A |
📈 Recent Form
Flamengo
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Vasco DA Gama | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 27/10 | Atletico-MG | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 23/10 | Estudiantes L.P. | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 19/10 | Bahia | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 16/10 | Estudiantes L.P. | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 11/10 | Fluminense | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 09/10 | Santos | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 21/09 | RB Bragantino | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 18/09 | Independiente del Valle | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 13/09 | Corinthians | Home | 2–1 | W |
Gremio
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Atletico Paranaense | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 27/10 | Coritiba | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 18/10 | Cruzeiro | Home | 2–4 | L |
| 11/10 | Internacional | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 08/10 | Remo | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 20/09 | Palmeiras | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 17/09 | Botafogo | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 12/09 | Vasco DA Gama | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 08/09 | Vitoria | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 04/09 | Internacional | Home | 3–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Serie A
Flamengo #1 · 73 pts · Gremio #15 · 37 pts
Flamengo
Gremio
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Flamengo
Gremio
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Flamengo
- ❌ Jorginho: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ G. Varela: Ankle Injury
- ❌ Leo Pereira: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ G. Plata: Muscle Injury
- ❌ E. Pulgar: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Alex Sandro: Injury
- ❌ Evertton Araujo: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ J. Carrascal: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ G. de Arrascaeta: Shoulder Injury
- ❌ Leo Ortiz: Injury
- ❌ Vitao: Muscle Injury
- ❌ Samuel Lino: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Ayrton Lucas: Thigh Injury
- ❓ Daniel Thuram (doubtful): Injury
- ❓ Ryan Roberto (doubtful): Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Danilo, Lucas Paqueta, Luiz Araujo, S. Niguez, N. de la Cruz, Bruno Henrique, Everton, J. Freitas, A. Valencia; not counted as confirmed absences.
Gremio
- ❌ M. Braithwaite: Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ M. Villasanti: Knee Injury
- ❌ Wagner Leonardo: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Arthur Melo: Injury
- ❌ Viery: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Carlos Vinicius: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Roger: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ J. Nardoni: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ Riquelme: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Fabian Balbuena: Thigh Injury
- ❌ C. Pavon: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Andre Henrique: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Gabriel Mec: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Pedro Gabriel: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Weverton: International duty
- ❌ Tete: Injury
- ❌ Dodi: Knee Injury
- ❌ Diego Caito: Shoulder Injury
- ❌ J. Cabral: Muscle Injury
- ❌ Wallace: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ Danilo Barbosa: Injury
- ❌ B. G. Joao Pedro: Injury
- ❓ M. Monsalve (doubtful): Injury
- ❓ F. Amuzu (doubtful): Inactive
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): Caio Paulista (Loan agreement).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Walter Kannemann, L. Perez, Willian, Gustavo Martins, Joao Pedro, Marlon, E. Noriega, Gabriel Grando, Luis Eduardo, Matheus Nascimento; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: P. Zanovelli