Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense

Next match: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 β€’ 00:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 33 β€’ Arena do GrΓͺmio β€’ 🌀 16.4Β°C, 7 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Draw 71% 28.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 65% 64.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 82% 50.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 48.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-1 71% 12.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.8 exp.) Over 9.5 64% 54.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Gremio 1.10 – 1.08 Atletico Paranaense Β· expected total 2.18

🧠 Match Preview

Gremio host Atletico Paranaense at the Arena do GrΓͺmio on Friday with very different seasons on the line. The visitors sit 3rd on 53 points from 31 games, firmly in the continental race, while the hosts are 18th on 31 points from 31 and scrapping for survival. The table says everything about the stakes: Athletico can consolidate, Gremio cannot afford to lose ground.

The model sees a tight, low-scoring game. Expected goals are almost level at 1.101 for Gremio and 1.0752 for Atletico, and recent shot quality leans slightly to the visitors (1.77 against 1.51). Form backs that up: Gremio's last five reads LDDDL, Atletico's LWDWD. The head-to-head is cagey too, including a 0-0 in May 2026, and both squads list heavy absences, with Gremio's injury sheet especially long.

The headline tip is the draw at 28.4 percent with confidence 71, and the 1-1 correct score at 12.2 percent fits the numbers. Double chance 1X at 64.2 percent is the safer route, while Under 2.5 lands at 48.4 percent and both teams to score at 50.9 percent. Corners offer a separate angle: an expected 10.8 and 54.7 percent for Over 9.5. With no bookmaker odds in the snapshot, value can only be judged once prices appear; if the draw trades above the implied 28.4 percent, that is where the edge sits.

The honest caveat: Gremio's desperation could force an open, riskier game than the model's low goal expectation assumes, and a 28.4 percent draw is a thin margin to lean on.

Updated 19 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Gremio

Form (last 5)
LCruzeiro (H) 2–4 Β· 18/10/2026DInternacional (H) 1–1 Β· 11/10/2026DRemo (A) 1–1 Β· 07/10/2026DPalmeiras (H) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026LBotafogo (A) 2–3 Β· 16/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.22
xG against (recent avg)0.87
Elo strength rating1471
Players out31

Atletico Paranaense

Form (last 5)
LPalmeiras (H) 0–2 Β· 17/10/2026WChapecoense-sc (A) 4–1 Β· 12/10/2026DAtletico-MG (H) 2–2 Β· 08/10/2026WBahia (H) 2–1 Β· 20/09/2026DCoritiba (A) 3–3 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.16
xG against (recent avg)1.25
Elo strength rating1426
Players out26
GremioAtletico Paranaense
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
1
4
xG for (recent avg)
1.22
1.16
xG against (recent avg)
0.87
1.25
Elo strength rating
1471
1426
Players out
31
26

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Gremio

Winless 7
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Atletico Paranaense

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Gremio

2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Atletico Paranaense

3rd best attack (1.60 goals/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Gremio at home Β· Atletico Paranaense away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Gremio (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–5D–3L
W 7
D 5
L 3
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3

Atletico Paranaense (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–3D–6L
W 6
D 3
L 6
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets3
Failed to score4
Gremio (home)Atletico Paranaense (away)
W 7
D 5
L 3
W 6
D 3
L 6
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.50
Clean sheets
4
3
Failed to score
3
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–1
12.2%
0–0
10.5%
2–2
3.3%
3–3
0.4%
4–4
0%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Atletico Paranaense 4 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Gremio 5 wins Β· avg 2.3 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

4
1
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
02 May 2026 Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Gremio Serie A
04 Aug 2024 Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Gremio Serie A
17 Apr 2024 Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
18 Oct 2023 Gremio 1–2 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
27 May 2023 Atletico Paranaense 1–2 Gremio Serie A
26 Sep 2021 Atletico Paranaense 4–2 Gremio Serie A
13 Jun 2021 Gremio 0–1 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
21 Feb 2021 Gremio 1–0 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
25 Oct 2020 Atletico Paranaense 1–2 Gremio Serie A
28 Nov 2019 Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Gremio Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Gremio

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18/10 Cruzeiro Home 2–4 L
11/10 Internacional Home 1–1 D
07/10 Remo Away 1–1 D
20/09 Palmeiras Home 0–0 D
16/09 Botafogo Away 2–3 L

Atletico Paranaense

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
17/10 Palmeiras Home 0–2 L
12/10 Chapecoense-sc Away 4–1 W
08/10 Atletico-MG Home 2–2 D
20/09 Bahia Home 2–1 W
12/09 Coritiba Away 3–3 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Gremio #18 Β· 31 pts β€”  Atletico Paranaense #3 Β· 53 pts

Gremio

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–10D–14L
W 7
D 10
L 14
Played31
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets6
Failed to score10
Yellow cards81
Red cards4
xG for (avg)1.22
xG against (avg)0.87
Corners for (avg)3.90
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Atletico Paranaense

Wins–Draws–Losses15W–8D–8L
W 15
D 8
L 8
Played31
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets8
Failed to score7
Yellow cards60
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.16
xG against (avg)1.25
Corners for (avg)6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)5/1
GremioAtletico Paranaense
W 7
D 10
L 14
W 15
D 8
L 8
Played
31
31
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.20
Clean sheets
6
8
Failed to score
10
7
Yellow cards
81
60
Red cards
4
2
xG for (avg)
1.22
1.16
xG against (avg)
0.87
1.25
Corners for (avg)
3.90
6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
5/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Gremio

2
0-15
2
7
16-30
3
6
31-45
5
9
46-60
11
11
61-75
5
6
76-90
5
scored conceded

Atletico Paranaense

7
0-15
13
7
16-30
5
7
31-45
4
1
46-60
11
4
61-75
4
11
76-90
12
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Gremio

  • ❌ M. Braithwaite β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Villasanti β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Walter Kannemann β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Perez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Wagner Leonardo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Arthur Melo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Willian β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gustavo Martins β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Joao Pedro β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marlon β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Caio Paulista β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ E. Noriega β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Viery β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Carlos Vinicius β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Roger β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ J. Nardoni β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Riquelme β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Fabian Balbuena β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ C. Pavon β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Andre Henrique β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gabriel Mec β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Pedro Gabriel β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gabriel Grando β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luis Eduardo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Weverton β€” International duty
  • ❌ Tete β€” Injury
  • ❌ Dodi β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Diego Caito β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ J. Cabral β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Matheus Nascimento β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Wallace β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❓ M. Monsalve (doubtful) β€” Injury
  • ❓ F. Amuzu (doubtful) β€” Inactive

Atletico Paranaense

  • ❌ Felipinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luiz Gustavo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Renan Peixoto β€” Injury
  • ❌ A. Garcia Castillo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Isaac β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Teran β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ B. Zapelli β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Bruninho β€” International duty
  • ❌ Arthur Dias β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Chiqueti β€” Illness
  • ❌ G. Benavidez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gilberto Junior β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Julimar β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jadson β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ L. Esquivel β€” Red Card
  • ❌ K. Viveros β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ J. Portilla β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Leo Derik β€” Injury
  • ❌ Mycael β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Dantas β€” Suspended
  • ❌ Claudinho β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Santos β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gilberto β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Joao Cruz β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ F. Aguirre β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ K. A. Calderon Vargas β€” Inactive
  • ❓ Renan Viana (doubtful) β€” Inactive

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws