Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Gremio vs Cruzeiro

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 19:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 31 β€’ Arena do GrΓͺmio β€’ 🌀 17.9Β°C, 12 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 77% 37.7% 2.26 1xBet 43.9% -6.2 pp
Double Chance 12 67% 66.4% 1.30 William Hill 73.8% -7.4 pp
BTTS Yes 82% 51.6% 1.65 William Hill 57.1% -5.5 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81% 48.3% 1.83 1xBet 52.8% -4.5 pp
Correct Score 0-1 64% 8.2% 9.00 Bet365 5.6% +2.6 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.1 exp.) Under 9.5 62% 53% 1.87 Betano 50% +3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Gremio 1.13 – 1.17 Cruzeiro Β· expected total 2.31

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Gremio host Cruzeiro at the Arena do GrΓͺmio with the two clubs heading in opposite directions. The visitors sit 5th on 48 points from 29 games, while the hosts are 18th on 30 points from the same number of matches, so the stakes are clear: Cruzeiro chasing the top pack, Gremio scrapping near the bottom.

The model leans on form and recent chance creation. Gremio's last five read DDLLL, Cruzeiro's WWLWL. The expected goals split is nearly level overall at 1.1337 for Gremio and 1.1731 for Cruzeiro, but the recent picture is lopsided: 0.62 xG for the home side against 1.94 for the away side. Both squads are heavily depleted, with long injury lists on either bench.

The headline tip is an away win at 37.7 percent, priced at 2.26, with confidence at 77. Double chance 12 lands at 66.4 percent. Both teams to score is favoured at 51.6 percent (1.65), and Over 2.5 sits at 48.3 percent (1.83). The most likely correct score is 0-1 at 8.2 percent, with 1-2 and 0-2 next in the list. Corners lean Under 9.5 at 53 percent against an expected 9.1.

Value may hide in the away win if you trust the recent xG gap, though the near-identical overall goal expectations and Gremio's home ground are a genuine risk. The H2H is mixed, including a 3-1 Gremio win in July 2026.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Gremio

Form (last 5)
DRemo (A) 1–1 Β· 07/10/2026DPalmeiras (H) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026LBotafogo (A) 2–3 Β· 16/09/2026LVasco DA Gama (H) 1–2 Β· 12/09/2026LVitoria (A) 0–1 Β· 07/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.30
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.27
xG against (recent avg)0.50
Elo strength rating1488
Players out30

Cruzeiro

Form (last 5)
WSao Paulo (H) 2–0 Β· 08/10/2026WVitoria (A) 3–1 Β· 20/09/2026LSantos (A) 1–2 Β· 13/09/2026WAtletico Paranaense (H) 3–1 Β· 06/09/2026LAtletico-MG (A) 1–2 Β· 02/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.07
xG against (recent avg)1.12
Elo strength rating1661
Players out26
GremioCruzeiro
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.30
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
1
4
xG for (recent avg)
0.27
1.07
xG against (recent avg)
0.50
1.12
Elo strength rating
1488
1661
Players out
30
26

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Gremio

Winless 5
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Cruzeiro

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Gremio

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Cruzeiro

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 3rd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Gremio at home Β· Cruzeiro away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Gremio (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–4D–3L
W 7
D 4
L 3
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3

Cruzeiro (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–2D–6L
W 6
D 2
L 6
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Gremio (home)Cruzeiro (away)
W 7
D 4
L 3
W 6
D 2
L 6
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.70
Clean sheets
4
2
Failed to score
3
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
8.2%
1–2
6.2%
0–2
5.4%
1–3
2.4%
0–3
2.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Cruzeiro 5 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Gremio 3 wins Β· avg 2.3 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

5
2
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
12 Jul 2026 Gremio 3–1 Cruzeiro Friendlies Clubs
18 Apr 2026 Cruzeiro 2–0 Gremio Serie A
05 Nov 2025 Gremio 0–1 Cruzeiro Serie A
13 Jul 2025 Cruzeiro 4–1 Gremio Serie A
28 Nov 2024 Cruzeiro 1–1 Gremio Serie A
10 Jul 2024 Gremio 0–2 Cruzeiro Serie A
27 Aug 2023 Gremio 3–0 Cruzeiro Serie A
31 May 2023 Cruzeiro 0–1 Gremio Copa Do Brasil
17 May 2023 Gremio 1–1 Cruzeiro Copa Do Brasil
23 Apr 2023 Cruzeiro 1–0 Gremio Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Gremio

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
07/10 Remo Away 1–1 D
20/09 Palmeiras Home 0–0 D
16/09 Botafogo Away 2–3 L
12/09 Vasco DA Gama Home 1–2 L
07/09 Vitoria Away 0–1 L

Cruzeiro

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
08/10 Sao Paulo Home 2–0 W
20/09 Vitoria Away 3–1 W
13/09 Santos Away 1–2 L
06/09 Atletico Paranaense Home 3–1 W
02/09 Atletico-MG Away 1–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Gremio #18 Β· 30 pts β€”  Cruzeiro #5 Β· 48 pts

Gremio

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–9D–13L
W 7
D 9
L 13
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets6
Failed to score10
Yellow cards78
Red cards4
xG for (avg)0.27
xG against (avg)0.50
Corners for (avg)2.50
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Cruzeiro

Wins–Draws–Losses14W–6D–9L
W 14
D 6
L 9
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets6
Failed to score4
Yellow cards72
Red cards3
xG for (avg)1.07
xG against (avg)1.12
Corners for (avg)3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)4/1
GremioCruzeiro
W 7
D 9
L 13
W 14
D 6
L 9
Played
29
29
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.40
Clean sheets
6
6
Failed to score
10
4
Yellow cards
78
72
Red cards
4
3
xG for (avg)
0.27
1.07
xG against (avg)
0.50
1.12
Corners for (avg)
2.50
3.20
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
4/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Gremio

2
0-15
2
7
16-30
3
5
31-45
5
9
46-60
11
11
61-75
4
6
76-90
5
scored conceded

Cruzeiro

6
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
7
31-45
8
8
46-60
7
2
61-75
8
10
76-90
12
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Gremio

  • ❌ M. Braithwaite β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Villasanti β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Walter Kannemann β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Perez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Wagner Leonardo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Arthur Melo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Willian β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gustavo Martins β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Joao Pedro β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marlon β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Caio Paulista β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ E. Noriega β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Viery β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Carlos Vinicius β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Roger β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ J. Nardoni β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Riquelme β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Fabian Balbuena β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ C. Pavon β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Andre Henrique β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gabriel Mec β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Pedro Gabriel β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gabriel Grando β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luis Eduardo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Weverton β€” International duty
  • ❌ Tete β€” Injury
  • ❌ Dodi β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Diego Caito β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ J. Cabral β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Matheus Nascimento β€” Inactive
  • ❓ M. Monsalve (doubtful) β€” Injury
  • ❓ F. Amuzu (doubtful) β€” Inactive

Cruzeiro

  • ❌ Marquinhos β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Matheus Cunha β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Sinisterra β€” Injury
  • ❌ Chico β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jonathan Jesus β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kaua Moraes β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Bruno Rodrigues β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kaio Jorge β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Romero β€” Inactive
  • ❌ William Furtado β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Cassio β€” Injury
  • ❌ Gerson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Joao Marcelo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Matheus Pereira β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Fabricio Bruno β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Fagner β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Silva β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ N. Villarreal β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kaua Prates β€” Inactive
  • ❌ K. Arroyo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Kaiki β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Matheus Henrique β€” Health problems
  • ❌ Gabriel Pec β€” Broken Leg
  • ❌ Wanderson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Kenji β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Leo Aragao β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❓ L. Villalba (doubtful) β€” Ankle Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws