Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama

Next match: Sun, 18 Oct 2026 β€’ 00:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 31 β€’ Estadio Do MorumBIS β€’ 🌦 14.2Β°C, 7 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 2 β†’ 2.22 β–²11% 79% 43.6% 2.22 1xBet 46.5% -2.9 pp
Double Chance 12 69% 69.4% 1.33 Bet365 72.9% -3.5 pp
BTTS Yes 82% 51.1% 1.91 Bet365 50% +1.1 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.4% 2.18 Betano 44.9% +2.5 pp
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.2% 9.25 Betano 5.3% +1.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.4 exp.) Over 9.5 63% 54% 1.60 Betano 58.4% -4.4 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.52 – 1.19 Vasco DA Gama Β· expected total 2.71

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Sao Paulo host Vasco da Gama at Estadio Do MorumBIS in Round 31 of Serie A, with both sides mid-table and separated by just four points. The hosts sit 9th on 39 points from 30 games, while Vasco are 14th on 35 points from 29, so this is a fixture where home advantage should matter.

The model leans toward Sao Paulo, giving them a 43.6 percent chance of winning at odds of 2.22, with confidence rated at 79. Their form reads LLWDL, though, and the underlying numbers are mixed: recent expected goals of 1.29 for the home side against 2.54 for Vasco, whose DWWWW run makes them the form team here. The double chance covering a home win or draw carries a 69.4 percent probability, which is the safer route given that away threat.

For goals, both teams to score is priced at 1.91 with a 51.1 percent probability, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 2.18 with a 47.4 percent chance. The most likely correct score is 2-1 at 9.14, followed by 1-0 at 8.9 and 2-0 at 7.66. Corners look interesting, with Over 9.5 expected at 10.4 and a 54 percent probability.

The honest caveat: Vasco arrive in far better form and their recent expected goals of 2.54 dwarf Sao Paulo's 1.29, so backing the home win outright at 2.22 carries real risk despite the model's lean.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 16:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Sao Paulo

Form (last 5)
LCruzeiro (A) 0–2 Β· 08/10/2026LSantos (H) 1–2 Β· 02/10/2026WInternacional (H) 1–0 Β· 20/09/2026DBoca Juniors (H) 1–1 Β· 16/09/2026LPalmeiras (A) 0–2 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)0.25
xG against (recent avg)0.46
Elo strength rating1553
Players out33

Vasco DA Gama

Form (last 5)
DRemo (H) 0–0 Β· 10/10/2026WBotafogo (A) 2–1 Β· 07/10/2026WCoritiba (H) 5–0 Β· 19/09/2026WSanta Fe (H) 2–0 Β· 15/09/2026WGremio (A) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.63
xG against (recent avg)0.36
Elo strength rating1497
Players out20
Sao PauloVasco DA Gama
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
1.40
Win streak (best this season)
4
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.25
1.63
xG against (recent avg)
0.46
0.36
Elo strength rating
1553
1497
Players out
33
20

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Sao Paulo

Lost 2 in a row
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Vasco DA Gama

Unbeaten 6
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Sao Paulo

2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Vasco DA Gama

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Sao Paulo at home Β· Vasco DA Gama away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Sao Paulo (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses8W–3D–3L
W 8
D 3
L 3
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets5
Failed to score1

Vasco DA Gama (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–7L
W 2
D 5
L 7
Played14
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Sao Paulo (home)Vasco DA Gama (away)
W 8
D 3
L 3
W 2
D 5
L 7
Played
14
14
Goals scored (avg)
1.60
1.10
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
1.70
Clean sheets
5
1
Failed to score
1
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.2%
1–0
7%
2–0
6%
3–1
3.6%
3–0
3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Sao Paulo 5 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Vasco DA Gama 3 wins Β· avg 3 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

5
2
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
18 Apr 2026 Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Sao Paulo Serie A
02 Nov 2025 Vasco DA Gama 0–2 Sao Paulo Serie A
13 Jun 2025 Sao Paulo 1–3 Vasco DA Gama Serie A
17 Oct 2024 Sao Paulo 3–0 Vasco DA Gama Serie A
23 Jun 2024 Vasco DA Gama 4–1 Sao Paulo Serie A
07 Oct 2023 Vasco DA Gama 0–0 Sao Paulo Serie A
20 May 2023 Sao Paulo 4–2 Vasco DA Gama Serie A
05 Aug 2021 Vasco DA Gama 1–2 Sao Paulo Copa Do Brasil
29 Jul 2021 Sao Paulo 2–0 Vasco DA Gama Copa Do Brasil
22 Nov 2020 Sao Paulo 1–1 Vasco DA Gama Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Sao Paulo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
08/10 Cruzeiro Away 0–2 L
02/10 Santos Home 1–2 L
20/09 Internacional Home 1–0 W
16/09 Boca Juniors Home 1–1 D
12/09 Palmeiras Away 0–2 L

Vasco DA Gama

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Remo Home 0–0 D
07/10 Botafogo Away 2–1 W
19/09 Coritiba Home 5–0 W
15/09 Santa Fe Home 2–0 W
12/09 Gremio Away 2–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Sao Paulo #9 Β· 39 pts β€”  Vasco DA Gama #14 Β· 35 pts

Sao Paulo

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–6D–13L
W 11
D 6
L 13
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets6
Failed to score7
Yellow cards58
Red cards2
xG for (avg)0.25
xG against (avg)0.46
Corners for (avg)5.20
Penalties (scored/missed)6/0

Vasco DA Gama

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–8D–12L
W 9
D 8
L 12
Played29
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets4
Failed to score9
Yellow cards57
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.63
xG against (avg)0.36
Corners for (avg)6.70
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
Sao PauloVasco DA Gama
W 11
D 6
L 13
W 9
D 8
L 12
Played
30
29
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.40
Clean sheets
6
4
Failed to score
7
9
Yellow cards
58
57
Red cards
2
2
xG for (avg)
0.25
1.63
xG against (avg)
0.46
0.36
Corners for (avg)
5.20
6.70
Penalties (scored/missed)
6/0
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Sao Paulo

1
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
14
46-60
7
3
61-75
9
8
76-90
4
scored conceded

Vasco DA Gama

4
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
6
9
46-60
8
8
61-75
6
9
76-90
13
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Sao Paulo

  • ❌ Andre Silva β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Ryan Francisco β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Alisson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Danielzinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucca Marques β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Ramon β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Moura β€” Broken rib
  • ❌ D. Bobadilla β€” International duty
  • ❌ Carlos Coronel β€” Inactive
  • ❌ E. Diaz β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Franco β€” Injury
  • ❌ G. Tapia β€” International duty
  • ❌ Paulinho β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Jonathan Calleri β€” Contusion
  • ❌ Luciano β€” Overload
  • ❌ Pablo Maia β€” Face Injury
  • ❌ Sabino β€” Overload
  • ❌ Djhordney β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marcos Antonio β€” Injury
  • ❌ R. Toloi β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ferreira β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Maik β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Robert Arboleda β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Cauly β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Wendell β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Victor Sa β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luis Osorio β€” Red Card
  • ❌ N. Bosshardt β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Buta β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Duarte β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Iago Borduchi β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rafael β€” Inactive
  • ❌ P. dos Santos β€” International duty

Vasco DA Gama

  • ❌ Brenner β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Hinestroza β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Jair β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Paulo Henrique β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Cuiabano β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Hugo Moura β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Cuesta β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Mateus Carvalho β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Thiago Mendes β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Cauan Barros β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Andres Gomez β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ J. Rodriguez β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Spinelli β€” Inactive
  • ❌ A. Saldivia β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Adson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Rojas β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ N. Moreira β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Robert Renan β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Tche Tche β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Bruno Duarte β€” Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws