Bucaramanga vs Atletico Nacional
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Tue, 03 Nov 2026 • 04:15 UTC+3 • Clausura - 17 • 🌦 21.3°C, 3 km/h, 1.3mm showers
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away 2.42 → 2.24 ▼7% | Pinnacle2.24 | 42.3% | -5.2% |
| Double Chance | 12 | William Hill1.33 | 72.1% | -4.1% |
| BTTS | Yes | William Hill1.70 | 56.2% · No 43.8% | -4.5% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Pinnacle1.93 | 50% · Under 50% | -3.5% |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | Betano9.25 | 8.7% | -19.5% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Betano1.65 | 54.2% · Over 45.8% | -10.6% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Bucaramanga · Home
Bucaramanga have won just once in their last five, with home draws against America de Cali and Águilas Doradas both finishing 1-1. Their recent xG for of 0.62 across matches with recorded statistics sits well below the model expected goals of 1.29 for this fixture.
Atletico Nacional · Away
Atletico Nacional have won four of their last five, scoring 11 goals, including a 4-1 away win at Chico. Their latest head-to-head was a 2-0 home win over Bucaramanga on 21 Apr 2026.
Nacional's scoring edge
The latest H2H, a 2-0 Atletico Nacional win on 21 Apr 2026, is the most telling reference, and the reverse fixture in 2025 also ended 2-0, to Bucaramanga at home. Nacional's recent run of 11 goals in five matches contrasts with Bucaramanga's five, and Bucaramanga have kept no clean sheets in their last five. With the model giving Nacional a 42.2% win probability and a 1-2 correct-score line, a narrow away win is realistic. The evidence supports Atletico Nacional win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 22:46 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.29 – 1.43 Atletico Nacional · expected total 2.72
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Bucaramanga
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Bucaramanga
Atletico Nacional
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Primera A
Bucaramanga
Atletico Nacional
Rank among 20 Primera A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Bucaramanga at home · Atletico Nacional away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Bucaramanga (home)
Atletico Nacional (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Atletico Nacional 3 wins · 3 draws · Bucaramanga 2 wins · avg 2.1 goals · BTTS in 4 of 8
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 2026 | Atletico Nacional | 2–0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Bucaramanga | 2–0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 30 Jan 2025 | Atletico Nacional | 1–1 | Bucaramanga | Superliga |
| 24 Sep 2024 | Bucaramanga | 1–0 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 11 Mar 2024 | Atletico Nacional | 0–0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 14 Aug 2023 | Atletico Nacional | 2–1 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 20 Feb 2023 | Bucaramanga | 1–1 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 28 Aug 2022 | Atletico Nacional | 3–2 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
📈 Recent Form
Bucaramanga
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Deportivo Pasto | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 27/10 | Santa Fe | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 24/10 | Chico | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 19/10 | America de Cali | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 14/10 | Águilas Doradas | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 05/10 | Junior | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 26/09 | Once Caldas | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 21/09 | Internacional de Bogota | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 18/09 | Independiente Medellin | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Pereira | Away | 3–1 | W |
Atletico Nacional
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Santa Fe | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 26/10 | Independiente Medellin | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 23/10 | Deportivo Pasto | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 21/10 | Cucuta | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 17/10 | Chico | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 15/10 | Independiente Medellin | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 09/10 | Deportes Tolima | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 01/10 | Junior | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 26/09 | Chapecoense-sc | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 25/09 | Millonarios | Home | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: Primera A
Bucaramanga #13 · 23 pts · Atletico Nacional #1 · 40 pts
Bucaramanga
Atletico Nacional
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Bucaramanga
Atletico Nacional
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Primera A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws