Cardiff vs Burnley
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 18:00 UTC+3 • Round 15 • Cardiff City Stadium
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 52.7% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | Current price not available | 77.9% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 57.3% · No 42.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 56% · Under 44% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 9.8% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.6 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 57.9% · Under 42.1% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Cardiff · Home
Cardiff's recent 5-1 home win over Watford shows the attacking ceiling behind a recent_xg_for of 2.47 across their last five recorded matches. Their home form also includes a 1-0 win over Birmingham, though the 0-3 loss at Wolves is a reminder of variance.
Burnley · Away
Burnley's 4-0 away win at Watford is the standout in a mixed run that also featured a 0-0 home draw with Portsmouth and a 1-4 loss at Lincoln. Their recent_xg_for of 1.36 is well below Cardiff's figure.
Cardiff's H2H Edge at Home
The latest head-to-head, on 23 Sep 2025, ended 1-2 in Cardiff's favour away at Burnley, and Cardiff also won 1-2 at home in the previous meeting. The outlier is Burnley's 5-0 win in 2024, so this is not a one-sided history. Cardiff's model_expected_goals of 1.82 against Burnley's 1.11 supports the home edge, and the 2-1 correct-score pick fits a fixture where both sides have recently conceded. The evidence supports Cardiff win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Cardiff 1.82 – 1.11 Burnley · expected total 2.93
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Cardiff
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Cardiff
Burnley
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
Cardiff
Burnley
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Cardiff at home · Burnley away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Cardiff (home)
Burnley (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Burnley 5 wins · 4 draws · Cardiff 1 win · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2025 | Burnley | 1–2 | Cardiff | League Cup |
| 04 Mar 2025 | Cardiff | 1–2 | Burnley | Championship |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Burnley | 5–0 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 08 May 2023 | Burnley | 3–0 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 01 Oct 2022 | Cardiff | 1–1 | Burnley | Championship |
| 13 Apr 2019 | Burnley | 2–0 | Cardiff | Premier League |
| 30 Sep 2018 | Cardiff | 1–2 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 05 Apr 2016 | Burnley | 0–0 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 28 Nov 2015 | Cardiff | 2–2 | Burnley | Championship |
| 20 Apr 2013 | Burnley | 1–1 | Cardiff | Championship |
📈 Recent Form
Cardiff
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Wolves | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 24/10 | Birmingham | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 17/10 | Middlesbrough | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 13/10 | Watford | Home | 5–1 | W |
| 10/10 | Blackburn | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 19/09 | Charlton | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Bolton | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 08/09 | Stoke City | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 05/09 | Portsmouth | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 02/09 | QPR | Away | 1–2 | L |
Burnley
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Portsmouth | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 24/10 | Lincoln | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 16/10 | Wolves | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 13/10 | Charlton | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 10/10 | Watford | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Derby | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 12/09 | Swansea | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 08/09 | Wrexham | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 05/09 | Bristol City | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 02/09 | Middlesbrough | Home | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
Cardiff #17 · 14 pts · Burnley #22 · 9 pts
Cardiff
Burnley
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Cardiff
Burnley
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Cardiff
- ❌ W. Fish: Hernia
- ❌ D. Lawlor: Muscle Injury
- ❌ C. Chambers: Knee Injury
- ❌ G. Osho: Knee Injury
- ❌ R. Colwill: Health problems
- ❌ I. Davies: Injury
- ❌ K. Bielik: Suspended (Suspended)
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Y. Salech, C. Robinson; not counted as confirmed absences.
Burnley
- ❌ E. Agyei: Injury
- ❌ J. Banel: Injury
- ❌ A. Barnes: Injury
- ❌ J. Beyer: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ J. Cullen: Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Laurent: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ D. Satpaev: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ J. Bruun Larsen: Injury
- ❌ A. Ramsey: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ Z. Amdouni: Ankle Injury
- ❌ A. Ahmedhodzic: Knock
- ❌ A. Broja: Injury
- ❌ J. Vardy: Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): B. Humphreys, Lucas Pires, H. Mejbri, L. Foster, M. Obafemi, S. Sambo, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye, B. Amos; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws