QPR vs Burnley
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Tue, 03 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • Round 14 • Loftus Road • ☀️ 10.4°C, 14 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: No at 2.35 (47.7%, Model EV +12.1%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.14 → 2.06 ▼4% | Dafabet2.06 | 49.8% | +2.6% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Bet3651.33 | 75% | -0.3% |
| BTTS | No | Betfair2.45 | 48.4% · Yes 51.6% | +18.6% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Betano2.25 | 45.2% · Over 54.8% | +1.7% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Bet36510.00 | 10.8% | +8% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Pinnacle2.02 | 53.9% · Over 46.1% | +8.9% |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
QPR · Home
QPR have scored 11 goals across their last five matches, including a 5-0 home win over Swansea and a 4-1 home win over Derby. Their recent xG for those matches with recorded statistics is 1.62, while the model expected goals for this fixture is 1.69.
Burnley · Away
Burnley have scored 8 and conceded 8 across their last five, with a 4-0 away win at Watford standing out. Their recent xG is 1.36, but the model expected goals for this fixture is just 0.96.
QPR home scoring edge
The latest head-to-head is a cautionary note: Burnley won 0-5 at QPR on 26 Apr 2025. Yet QPR's home results in this sample include 5-0 against Swansea and 4-1 against Derby, and their recent xG of 1.62 sits above Burnley's 1.36. Burnley failed to score in the 0-0 with Portsmouth and have 2 clean sheets in 5, so a narrow home win is realistic rather than a repeat of that heavy defeat. The evidence supports QPR win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 10:46 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: QPR 1.69 – 0.96 Burnley · expected total 2.65
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
QPR
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
QPR
Burnley
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
QPR
Burnley
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
QPR at home · Burnley away, the split that matters for this fixture.
QPR (home)
Burnley (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Burnley 5 wins · 3 draws · QPR 2 wins · avg 2.5 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2025 | QPR | 0–5 | Burnley | Championship |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Burnley | 0–0 | QPR | Championship |
| 22 Apr 2023 | Burnley | 1–2 | QPR | Championship |
| 11 Dec 2022 | QPR | 0–3 | Burnley | Championship |
| 02 May 2016 | Burnley | 1–0 | QPR | Championship |
| 12 Dec 2015 | QPR | 0–0 | Burnley | Championship |
| 10 Jan 2015 | Burnley | 2–1 | QPR | Premier League |
| 06 Dec 2014 | QPR | 2–0 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 01 Feb 2014 | QPR | 3–3 | Burnley | Championship |
| 26 Oct 2013 | Burnley | 2–0 | QPR | Championship |
📈 Recent Form
QPR
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Southampton | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 24/10 | Swansea | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 17/10 | Birmingham | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 14/10 | Derby | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 09/10 | West Ham | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 19/09 | Preston | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | West Brom | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 09/09 | Charlton | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 05/09 | Middlesbrough | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 02/09 | Cardiff | Home | 2–1 | W |
Burnley
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Portsmouth | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 24/10 | Lincoln | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 16/10 | Wolves | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 13/10 | Charlton | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 10/10 | Watford | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Derby | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 12/09 | Swansea | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 08/09 | Wrexham | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 05/09 | Bristol City | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 02/09 | Middlesbrough | Home | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
QPR #9 · 20 pts · Burnley #22 · 9 pts
QPR
Burnley
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
QPR
Burnley
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
QPR
- ❌ K. Dembele: Knee Injury
- ❌ B. Kemper: Ankle Injury
- ❌ J. Obikwu: Shin Injury
- ❌ I. Chair: Injury
- ❌ J. Dunne: Knee Injury
- ❌ R. Kone: Injury
- ❌ T. Lamptey: Injury
- ❌ D. Cirkin: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ A. S. Mbengue: Knee Injury
- ❌ N. Madsen: Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): R. Kolli (Coach's decision).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): R. Burrell, K. Saito; not counted as confirmed absences.
Burnley
- ❌ E. Agyei: Injury
- ❌ J. Banel: Injury
- ❌ A. Barnes: Injury
- ❌ J. Beyer: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ J. Cullen: Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Laurent: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ D. Satpaev: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ J. Bruun Larsen: Injury
- ❌ A. Ramsey: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ Z. Amdouni: Ankle Injury
- ❌ A. Ahmedhodzic: Knock
- ❌ A. Broja: Injury
- ❌ J. Vardy: Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): B. Humphreys, Lucas Pires, H. Mejbri, L. Foster, M. Obafemi, S. Sambo, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye, B. Amos; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: Tom Reeves