Derby vs Norwich
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Tue, 03 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • Round 14 • Pride Park Stadium • ⛅ 10.1°C, 14 km/h partly cloudy
Snapshotted at publish: Under 9.5 at 2.11 (61.1%, Model EV +28.9%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away 2.08 → 2.14 ▲3% | Dafabet2.14 | 44.5% | -4.8% |
| Double Chance | 12 | William Hill1.29 | 73.4% | -5.3% |
| BTTS | No | Betfair2.38 | 49.6% · Yes 50.4% | +18% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Betfair2.20 | 48% · Over 52% | +5.6% |
| Correct Score | 0-1 | Bet3659.50 | 10% | -5% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.1 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Pinnacle2.08 | 61.1% · Over 38.9% | +27.1% |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
Derby · Home
Derby are without a win in their last five, drawing two and losing three while conceding 11 goals and keeping no clean sheets. Their most recent home outing ended in a 0-1 defeat to Stoke City, and they failed to score in only one of those five matches.
Norwich · Away
Norwich have won two of their last five, including a 3-2 home win over Watford and a 3-1 away win at Charlton. Their three defeats in that run were all by a single goal, and they failed to score in two of the five.
Norwich edge recent H2H
The latest head-to-head, on 21 Apr 2026, finished 2-1 to Norwich at home, while the earlier meeting in this sequence saw Derby win 1-0. Norwich's recent away form includes that 3-1 win at Charlton, and their model expected goals of 1.27 sit above Derby's 1.15. Derby's five-match run of 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 4 goals for and 11 against, makes a narrow away result realistic rather than a comfortable one. The evidence supports Norwich win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:47 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Derby 1.15 – 1.27 Norwich · expected total 2.42
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Derby
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Derby
Norwich
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
Derby
Norwich
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Derby at home · Norwich away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Derby (home)
Norwich (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Derby 4 wins · 3 draws · Norwich 3 wins · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr 2026 | Norwich | 2–1 | Derby | Championship |
| 21 Oct 2025 | Derby | 1–0 | Norwich | Championship |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Norwich | 1–1 | Derby | Championship |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Derby | 2–3 | Norwich | Championship |
| 10 Apr 2021 | Derby | 0–1 | Norwich | Championship |
| 03 Oct 2020 | Norwich | 0–1 | Derby | Championship |
| 29 Dec 2018 | Norwich | 3–4 | Derby | Championship |
| 03 Oct 2018 | Derby | 1–1 | Norwich | Championship |
| 10 Feb 2018 | Derby | 1–1 | Norwich | Championship |
| 28 Oct 2017 | Norwich | 1–2 | Derby | Championship |
📈 Recent Form
Derby
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Millwall | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 24/10 | Sheffield Utd | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 17/10 | Stoke City | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 14/10 | QPR | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 10/10 | Wrexham | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 19/09 | Burnley | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 12/09 | Birmingham | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 09/09 | West Brom | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 05/09 | West Ham | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 01/09 | Portsmouth | Away | 2–0 | W |
Norwich
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Watford | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 24/10 | Charlton | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 17/10 | Portsmouth | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 14/10 | Southampton | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 10/10 | Swansea | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Bolton | Home | 3–4 | L |
| 17/09 | Manchester City | Away | 0–5 | L |
| 12/09 | Middlesbrough | Away | 3–4 | L |
| 09/09 | Birmingham | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 05/09 | Sheffield Utd | Away | 3–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
Derby #23 · 7 pts · Norwich #15 · 15 pts
Derby
Norwich
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Derby
Norwich
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Derby
- ❌ P. Agyemang: Achilles Tendon Injury
- ❌ M. Clarke: Calf Injury
- ❌ D. Murkin: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ S. Szmodics: Thigh Injury
- ❌ L. Travis: Injury
- ❌ C. Forsyth: Knee Injury
- ❌ F. Bilbija: Back Injury
- ❌ R. Brewster: Injury
- ❌ H. Meister: Concussion
- ❌ J. Widell Zetterstrom: Knee Injury
- ❌ C. Taylor: Injury
- ❌ S. Langas: Injury
- ❌ D. Sanderson: Suspended (Red Card)
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): C. Morris, E. Cashin, M. Johnston; not counted as confirmed absences.
Norwich
- ❌ L. Gibbs: Muscle Injury
- ❌ J. Makama: Foot Injury
- ❌ A. Ahmed: Knee Injury
- ❌ L. Mahovo: Ankle Injury
- ❌ P. Maghoma: Calf Injury
- ❌ M. Topic: Knee Injury
- ❌ P. A. Diallo: Injury
- ❌ K. McLean: Injury
- ❌ M. Toure: Shoulder Injury
- ❌ V. Kovacevic: Concussion
- ❌ P. Mattsson: Health problems
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): A. Crnac (Lacking Match Fitness), G. Forsyth (Lacking Match Fitness).
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: Sam Allison