Predictions β†’ England Championship

Derby vs Stoke City

Next match: Sat, 17 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 11 β€’ Pride Park Stadium β€’ ☁️ 12.1Β°C, 17 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 2.8 β†’ 2.42 β–Ό14% 76% 36.5% 2.42 Betano 40.6% -4.1 pp
Double Chance X2 70% 70.3% 1.44 Betano 67.3% +3 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 49.1% 1.75 William Hill 53.9% -4.8 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 51.1% 1.92 Pinnacle 50.8% +0.3 pp
Correct Score 0-1 70% 11.3% 8.50 Bet365 5.9% +5.4 pp
Draw (value pick) Draw 63% 27.4% 3.55 Pinnacle 26.7% +0.7 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12 exp.) Over 9.5 66% 57% 1.67 Betano 55.9% +1.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Derby 0.88 – 1.14 Stoke City Β· expected total 2.03

🧠 Match Preview

Saturday's Championship clash at Pride Park Stadium sees 23rd-placed Derby host 8th-placed Stoke City, and the table already tells a story: 6 points from 10 games for the hosts against 16 for the visitors. Derby's last five read LDDLL, while Stoke arrive on LWWWD, so momentum sits firmly with the away side.

The model sees a low-scoring, away-leaning contest. Expected goals come in at 0.8833 for Derby and 1.142 for Stoke, with recent xG figures of 0.84 and 1.05 respectively β€” modest numbers that explain why Under 2.5 carries 51.1% and BTTS Yes only 49.1%. Derby's injury list is enormous, with fourteen names including P. Agyemang, M. Clarke and R. Brewster, while Stoke are without nine, among them A. Ampah and A. Cresswell. The head-to-head is mixed: Derby won the most recent meeting 2-0, but Stoke took the previous one 3-1.

The headline tip is an Away win at 36.5% probability, priced at 2.42, with confidence of 76. Double chance X2 lands at 70.3%, the safest route into this fixture. The correct-score model favours 0-1 at 11.3%, with 0-2 (8.61) and 1-2 (7.6) next in line. Corners offer a separate angle: Over 9.5 at 57% with an expected 12.

The honest caveat is Derby's home advantage and that recent 2-0 win over this exact opponent β€” Pride Park has produced surprises, and a 36.5% away probability is a lean, not a lock. Stake accordingly.

Updated 16 Oct 2026, 04:10 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Derby

Form (last 5)
LQPR (A) 1–4 Β· 14/10/2026DWrexham (H) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026DBurnley (A) 1–1 Β· 19/09/2026LBirmingham (H) 1–2 Β· 12/09/2026LWest Brom (H) 0–1 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)1.90
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)0.59
xG against (recent avg)1.51
Elo strength rating1481
Players out14

Stoke City

Form (last 5)
LMiddlesbrough (H) 2–3 Β· 13/10/2026WBolton (A) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026WSheffield Utd (H) 2–1 Β· 19/09/2026WWatford (A) 2–1 Β· 12/09/2026DCardiff (A) 1–1 Β· 08/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.60
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)1.05
xG against (recent avg)1.02
Elo strength rating1443
Players out9
DerbyStoke City
Goals scored (season avg)
0.90
1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.90
1.60
Win streak (best this season)
1
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.59
1.05
xG against (recent avg)
1.51
1.02
Elo strength rating
1481
1443
Players out
14
9

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Derby

Winless 6
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Stoke City

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Derby

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Stoke City

Best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Derby at home Β· Stoke City away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Derby (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–2D–3L
D 2
L 3
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Stoke City (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–2L
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score0
Derby (home)Stoke City (away)
D 2
L 3
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
2.00
Clean sheets
0
0
Failed to score
2
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
11.3%
0–2
7.1%
1–2
6.3%
0–3
2.7%
1–3
2.4%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Derby 5 wins Β· 2 draws Β· Stoke City 3 wins Β· avg 2.3 goals Β· BTTS in 4 of 10

5
2
3
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
06 Apr 2026 Derby 2–0 Stoke City Championship
09 Aug 2025 Stoke City 3–1 Derby Championship
03 May 2025 Derby 0–0 Stoke City Championship
02 Nov 2024 Stoke City 2–1 Derby Championship
22 Jul 2023 Derby 3–0 Stoke City Friendlies Clubs
30 Dec 2021 Stoke City 1–2 Derby Championship
18 Sep 2021 Derby 2–1 Stoke City Championship
20 Mar 2021 Stoke City 1–0 Derby Championship
12 Dec 2020 Derby 0–0 Stoke City Championship
31 Jan 2020 Derby 4–0 Stoke City Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Derby

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
14/10 QPR Away 1–4 L
10/10 Wrexham Home 1–1 D
19/09 Burnley Away 1–1 D
12/09 Birmingham Home 1–2 L
09/09 West Brom Home 0–1 L

Stoke City

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
13/10 Middlesbrough Home 2–3 L
10/10 Bolton Away 2–1 W
19/09 Sheffield Utd Home 2–1 W
12/09 Watford Away 2–1 W
08/09 Cardiff Away 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Derby #23 Β· 6 pts β€”  Stoke City #8 Β· 16 pts

Derby

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–6L
W 1
D 3
L 6
Played10
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.90
Clean sheets1
Failed to score3
Yellow cards25
Red cards0
xG for (avg)0.59
xG against (avg)1.51
Corners for (avg)7.40
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Stoke City

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–1D–4L
W 5
D 1
L 4
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards23
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.05
xG against (avg)1.02
Corners for (avg)6.40
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
DerbyStoke City
W 1
D 3
L 6
W 5
D 1
L 4
Played
10
10
Goals scored (avg)
0.90
1.70
Goals conceded (avg)
1.90
1.60
Clean sheets
1
2
Failed to score
3
0
Yellow cards
25
23
Red cards
0
2
xG for (avg)
0.59
1.05
xG against (avg)
1.51
1.02
Corners for (avg)
7.40
6.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Derby

2
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
2
scored conceded

Stoke City

1
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Derby

  • ❌ P. Agyemang β€” Achilles Tendon Injury
  • ❌ M. Clarke β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ D. Murkin β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ S. Szmodics β€” Thigh Injury
  • ❌ C. Morris β€” Inactive
  • ❌ L. Travis β€” Injury
  • ❌ C. Forsyth β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ F. Bilbija β€” Back Injury
  • ❌ R. Brewster β€” Injury
  • ❌ H. Meister β€” Concussion
  • ❌ J. Widell Zetterstrom β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ E. Cashin β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Johnston β€” Inactive
  • ❌ C. Taylor β€” Injury

Stoke City

  • ❌ A. Ampah β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ A. Cresswell β€” Injury
  • ❌ J. Tchamadeu β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ L. Cisse β€” Knock
  • ❌ B. Lawal β€” Health problems
  • ❌ B. Gibson β€” Head Injury
  • ❌ S. Ingelsson β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Gallagher β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Talovierov β€” Red Card

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws

Referee: Oliver Langford