Portsmouth vs Stoke City
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 15:30 UTC+3 • Round 15 • Fratton Park • ☁️ 8.6°C, 10 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 49.7% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 77.3% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 70.4% · No 29.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 71.2% · Under 28.8% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 8.9% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.8 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 65.2% · Under 34.8% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Portsmouth · Home
Portsmouth are unbeaten across their last five with 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 7 and conceding 4, and they failed to score only in the 0-0 at Burnley. Their recent xG for of 1.5 sits below the model expected goals of 2.13 for this fixture.
Stoke City · Away
Stoke City have won 3 of their last five, keeping 3 clean sheets, though their recent xG for of 0.81 is modest. They lost 2-3 at home to Middlesbrough and drew 0-0 with Bristol City in that run.
Portsmouth's Home H2H Edge
The latest head-to-head is the clearest angle: Portsmouth won 3-1 at Stoke City on 25 Apr 2026, and they also beat Stoke 3-1 at home in January 2025. The exception was the 0-1 home defeat in October 2025, so this fixture has produced a decisive scoreline in all three supplied meetings. Portsmouth's 3 wins and 2 draws across their last five, with 7 goals scored, support a realistic home result. The evidence supports Portsmouth win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Portsmouth 2.13 – 1.56 Stoke City · expected total 3.70
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Portsmouth
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Portsmouth
Stoke City
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
Portsmouth
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Stoke City
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Portsmouth at home · Stoke City away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Portsmouth (home)
Stoke City (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Portsmouth 2 wins · 0 draws · Stoke City 3 wins · avg 3.8 goals · BTTS in 3 of 5
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Stoke City | 1–3 | Portsmouth | Championship |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Portsmouth | 0–1 | Stoke City | Championship |
| 22 Jan 2025 | Portsmouth | 3–1 | Stoke City | Championship |
| 02 Oct 2024 | Stoke City | 6–1 | Portsmouth | Championship |
| 27 Aug 2014 | Stoke City | 3–0 | Portsmouth | League Cup |
📈 Recent Form
Portsmouth
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Burnley | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 24/10 | Millwall | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 20/10 | Wolves | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 17/10 | Norwich | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 14/10 | Sheffield Utd | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 11/10 | Southampton | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 19/09 | Blackburn | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 12/09 | Charlton | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 05/09 | Cardiff | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 01/09 | Derby | Home | 0–2 | L |
Stoke City
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Preston | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 24/10 | Bristol City | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 17/10 | Derby | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 13/10 | Middlesbrough | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 10/10 | Bolton | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Sheffield Utd | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Watford | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 08/09 | Cardiff | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 05/09 | Charlton | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 01/09 | Norwich | Home | 1–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
Portsmouth #11 · 19 pts · Stoke City #7 · 23 pts
Portsmouth
Stoke City
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Portsmouth
Stoke City
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Portsmouth
- ❌ K. Anderson: Injury
- ❌ J. Bursik: Injury
- ❌ J. Farrell: Groin Injury
- ❌ M. Kosznovszky: Knee Injury
- ❌ C. Ogilvie: Knee Injury
- ❌ M. Pack: Knee Injury
- ❌ F. Umeh: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ T. Waddingham: Ankle Injury
- ❌ H. Blair: Illness
- ❌ J. Murphy: Injury
- ❌ L. Brooke-Smith: Ankle Injury
- ❌ Marezi: Calf Injury
- ❌ C. Shaughnessy: Injury
- ❌ B. Arthur: Back Injury
- ❌ C. Bishop: Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Swift: Knee Injury
Stoke City
- ❌ A. Ampah: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ A. Cresswell: Injury
- ❌ J. Tchamadeu: Knee Injury
- ❌ L. Cisse: Knock
- ❌ B. Lawal: Health problems
- ❌ B. Gibson: Head Injury
- ❌ S. Ingelsson: Injury
- ❌ S. Gallagher: Injury
- ❌ M. Talovierov: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ E. Bocat: Injury
- ❌ E. Galbraith: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws