Newport County vs Walsall

Newport County and Walsall meet at Rodney Parade on Saturday evening in the 1/128-finals of the FA Cup, a tie where the hosts will fancy turning home advantage into a place in the next round. The model leans Newport's way, giving them a 42.7 percent chance of the win with a confidence reading of 79, and the double chance on the home side or a draw sits at 71.5 percent — the safest anchor on the card.

Form is tight. Newport arrive on a DDWDW run, Walsall on WDWDD, so neither side is blowing hot. The goal numbers tell a more interesting story: the model expects 1.7347 goals for Newport and 1.3727 for Walsall, yet recent xG flips the script, with the visitors generating 1.82 against Newport's 1.4. That tension is why both teams to score lands at 55.8 percent and over 2.5 goals at 46.7 percent — the model sees goals but not a flood. The correct-score leans 2-1 at 9.26 percent, with 2-0 at 6.75 and 1-0 at 6.71 close behind. Corners point low, under 9.5 at 53.4 percent on an expected 8.9.

The value question is straightforward: with no bookmaker odds quoted, the home win at 42.7 percent is the model's headline call, but the double chance at 71.5 percent is where the probability-to-price gap is most likely to favour you. The honest caveat is the head-to-head — Walsall won the last meeting 2-1 and thumped Newport 4-2 at this very ground in November 2025, so the visitors have recent history on their side and the home edge is thinner than the raw percentage suggests.