Crewe vs Newport County
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 • 18:00 UTC+3 • Round 15 • Alexandra Stadium • ☁️ 7.2°C, 16 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 47.4% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 75.6% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 65.3% · No 34.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 64.1% · Under 35.9% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 9.3% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.5 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 57.9% · Over 42.1% | — |
Bookmaker links on this page: #ad · Play Safe · T&Cs apply · 18+
🧠 Match Preview
Crewe · Home
Crewe have scored in four of their last five matches, including a 3-2 home win over Rochdale and a 1-1 draw with Barnet. Their recent xG for is 1.68 across up to five recent matches with recorded statistics, and the model expected goals figure for this fixture is 1.89.
Newport County · Away
Newport County won 4-1 at home to Chesterfield but lost 0-1 at Cheltenham and drew 2-2 at Rotherham. Their recent xG for is 1.40 across up to five recent matches with recorded statistics, against a model expected goals figure of 1.42 here.
Crewe's Home Scoring Edge
The latest head-to-head is a 2-0 Newport County win on 2025-12-29, yet Crewe drew 2-2 with Newport at home on 2025-12-10 and lost 0-3 to them at home on 2025-02-08. Crewe's home results in this sample include a 1-1 draw with Barnet and a 3-2 win over Rochdale, while Newport have scored 8 goals in their last five. Crewe's recent xG for of 1.68 and model expected goals of 1.89 support a realistic home win. The evidence supports Crewe win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Crewe 1.89 – 1.42 Newport County · expected total 3.31
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Crewe
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Crewe
Newport County
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Crewe at home · Newport County away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Crewe (home)
Newport County (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Crewe 1 win · 3 draws · Newport County 5 wins · avg 3.1 goals · BTTS in 6 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Dec 2025 | Newport County | 2–0 | Crewe | League Two |
| 10 Dec 2025 | Crewe | 2–2 | Newport County | League Two |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Crewe | 0–3 | Newport County | League Two |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Newport County | 2–1 | Crewe | League Two |
| 29 Dec 2023 | Newport County | 1–1 | Crewe | League Two |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Crewe | 4–2 | Newport County | League Two |
| 08 May 2023 | Newport County | 2–2 | Crewe | League Two |
| 02 Dec 2022 | Crewe | 1–2 | Newport County | League Two |
| 24 Aug 2019 | Newport County | 1–0 | Crewe | League Two |
📈 Recent Form
Crewe
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Barnet | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 24/10 | Chesterfield | Away | 1–5 | L |
| 20/10 | Exeter City | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 17/10 | Rochdale | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 10/10 | Swindon Town | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Bristol Rovers | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 26/09 | Rotherham | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 22/09 | Aston Villa U21 | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Shrewsbury | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 12/09 | Colchester | Away | 1–1 | D |
Newport County
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Chesterfield | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 24/10 | Cheltenham | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 20/10 | Rotherham | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 17/10 | York | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 10/10 | Colchester | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Gillingham | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 26/09 | Grimsby | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 22/09 | Swindon Town | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Accrington ST | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 12/09 | Fleetwood Town | Home | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: League Two
Crewe #4 · 22 pts · Newport County #14 · 18 pts
Crewe
Newport County
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Crewe
Newport County
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws