Chelmsford City vs Ebbsfleet United
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Mon, 09 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • National League South - 3 • Melbourne Stadium • 🌦 8.7°C, 17 km/h, 0.5mm drizzle
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw | Current price not available | 29.2% | — |
| Double Chance | X2 | Current price not available | 68.7% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 52.6% · No 47.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Current price not available | 53.6% · Over 46.4% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | Current price not available | 14% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Chelmsford City · Home
Chelmsford City have scored 12 goals across their last five matches, including a 5-0 win at Chesham United and a 3-3 home draw with Tonbridge Angels. However, they failed to score in the most recent head-to-head, a 0-1 home defeat to Ebbsfleet United on 20 Dec 2025.
Ebbsfleet United · Away
Ebbsfleet United have scored 15 goals in their last five, with a 6-1 home win over Weston-super-Mare and a 4-0 home win against Maidenhead. Their away form is less convincing, though, following a 0-3 loss at Truro City and a 3-1 win at Maidstone Utd.
Head-to-head goals stay low
The latest head-to-head, a 0-1 Chelmsford City home defeat on 20 Dec 2025, fits a tight pattern: the previous two meetings also finished 1-0, with 1-0 and 0-1. Chelmsford City's model expected goals of 1.18 and Ebbsfleet United's 1.35 point to a low-scoring contest rather than the 12 and 15 goals their recent records show. A 1-1 correct score is the model's call at 14%, and Under 2.5 carries 53.6%. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:51 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Chelmsford City 1.18 – 1.35 Ebbsfleet United · expected total 2.53
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Chelmsford City
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Chelmsford City
Ebbsfleet United
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: National League South
Chelmsford City
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Ebbsfleet United
Rank among 24 National League South teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Chelmsford City at home · Ebbsfleet United away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Chelmsford City (home)
Ebbsfleet United (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Chelmsford City 1 win · 2 draws · Ebbsfleet United 5 wins · avg 1.4 goals · BTTS in 2 of 8
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2025 | Chelmsford City | 0–1 | Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Ebbsfleet United | 1–0 | Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Chelmsford City | 0–1 | Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| 17 Jan 2023 | Ebbsfleet United | 2–0 | Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| 07 May 2022 | Ebbsfleet United | 2–1 | Chelmsford City | National League - South |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Chelmsford City | 0–0 | Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| 29 Sep 2015 | Ebbsfleet United | 1–2 | Chelmsford City | FA Cup |
| 26 Sep 2015 | Chelmsford City | 0–0 | Ebbsfleet United | FA Cup |
📈 Recent Form
Chelmsford City
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | AFC Totton | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 27/10 | Dover | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 24/10 | Tonbridge Angels | Home | 3–3 | D |
| 17/10 | Wimborne Town | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 10/10 | Chesham United | Away | 5–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Brackley Town | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 26/09 | Horsham | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 19/09 | Canvey Island | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Hampton & Richmond | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 08/09 | Dorking Wanderers | Away | 3–3 | D |
Ebbsfleet United
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Truro City | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 27/10 | Maidstone Utd | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 24/10 | Maidenhead | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 20/10 | Horsham | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 17/10 | Weston-super-Mare | Home | 6–1 | W |
| 13/10 | AFC Totton | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Hampton & Richmond | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 06/10 | Folkestone Invicta | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 03/10 | Sholing | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 29/09 | Slough Town | Away | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: National League South
Chelmsford City #12 · 21 pts · Ebbsfleet United #3 · 28 pts
Chelmsford City
Ebbsfleet United
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Chelmsford City
Ebbsfleet United
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: National League South predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws