Liverpool vs Arsenal

Liverpool host Arsenal at Anfield on Sunday with the visitors sitting second on 18 points from seven games and the hosts fifth on 12 from the same number of matches, so this is a fixture with real early-season weight for both. The model leans home, giving Liverpool a 38.1 percent win probability at 77 confidence, while the double chance on 12 carries 70 percent.

The form lines are tight: Liverpool arrive on WWLWW, Arsenal on WWWLW. The expected goals tell a more interesting story than the table. Liverpool's recent attacking output sits at 1.96, Arsenal's at 2.58, yet the match-level projections are far more conservative at 1.5471 for the hosts and 1.3143 for the visitors, which is the model pricing in caution rather than the recent shot quality. Both squads are heavily depleted, with eleven listed absences for Liverpool and nine for Arsenal, so rotation and makeshift shapes are a genuine factor. The head-to-head is cagey: 0-0, 1-0, 2-2, 2-2 and 2-1 across the last five, only one of which cleared three goals.

That history sits awkwardly against the tips. Over 2.5 goals is called at 50.1 percent, BTTS Yes at 48.9 percent, and the correct score leans 2-1 at 7.1 percent, with 1-0 at 7.7 and 2-0 at 6.85 close behind in the top scores. Corners are tipped Under 9.5 at 52 percent against an expected 9.5. The value question is whether the market overreacts to Arsenal's 2.58 recent xG and prices goals too short; the model's own 50.1 percent on Over 2.5 is barely a coin flip, so the unders side and the double chance are where the numbers look least stretched. The honest caveat: with this many injuries on both sides, lineups could shift the projections materially, and a 38.1 percent home win is a lean, not a lock.