Hull City vs Brentford

Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 • 14:00 UTC+3 • Round 8 • MKM Stadium • 🌤 12.2°C, 14 km/h mostly clear

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Market	Tip	Confidence	Probability	Odds	Bookmaker	Market implied	Edge
Match Result (1X2)	Home	78%	41.6%	—	—	—	—
Double Chance	12	70%	70.3%	—	—	—	—
BTTS	Yes	83%	53.5%	—	—	—	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	82%	50.7%	—	—	—	—
Correct Score	2-1	63%	7.3%	—	—	—	—
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.1 exp.)	Over 9.5	64%	55.4%	—	—	—	—

⚽ Model expected goals: Hull City 1.61 – 1.27 Brentford · expected total 2.88

🧠 Match Preview

Hull City host Brentford at the MKM Stadium on Sunday with both sides mid-table but moving in opposite directions. Hull sit 8th on 9 points from 6 games, while Brentford are 4th on 10 points from the same number of matches, so a home win would tighten this corner of the table considerably.

The model leans toward the hosts despite the form lines. Hull arrive on a DLDLD run, Brentford on DWWDD, yet the expected goals favour Hull at 1.6094 against Brentford's 1.2677, with recent xG reads of 1.21 and 1.04 respectively. That gap is enough for a home tip at 41.6 percent with a confidence of 78. The double chance covering draw and away lands at 70.3 percent, which tells you the model sees this as tight rather than one-sided. Both teams to score comes in at 53.5 percent, over 2.5 goals at 50.7 percent, and the correct score market points to 2-1 at 9.26, ahead of 1-0 at 7.93 and 2-0 at 7.3. Corners look lively too, with an expected 11.1 and over 9.5 at 55.4 percent.

The obvious risk is the team news. Hull's injury list is enormous, running to fifteen names including J. Butland, C. Hughes and M. Targett, with M. Cho and L. Gourna-Douath doubtful. Brentford are without M. Damsgaard, N. Collins and S. van den Berg among others, with K. Schade doubtful. With no bookmaker odds supplied, value is impossible to confirm, so treat the home lean as a model view only and check the lineups before staking.

Updated 15 Oct 2026, 10:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Hull City

Form (last 5)

DEverton (H) 2–2 · 11/10/2026 LNewcastle (A) 1–2 · 19/09/2026 DChelsea (A) 2–2 · 12/09/2026LSunderland (A) 0–1 · 08/09/2026DAston Villa (H) 0–0 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.00

Win streak (best this season)2

xG for (recent avg)0.98

xG against (recent avg)1.10

Elo strength rating1377

Players out13

Brentford

Form (last 5)

DAston Villa (A) 2–2 · 10/10/2026 WChelsea (H) 3–0 · 18/09/2026WReading (A) 2–1 · 15/09/2026DBournemouth (A) 2–2 · 12/09/2026 DSunderland (H) 1–1 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)2.00

Goals conceded (season avg)1.00

Win streak (best this season)1

xG for (recent avg)0.48

xG against (recent avg)0.77

Elo strength rating1566

Players out7

Hull CityBrentford

DEverton (H) 2–2 · 11/10/2026 LNewcastle (A) 1–2 · 19/09/2026 DChelsea (A) 2–2 · 12/09/2026LSunderland (A) 0–1 · 08/09/2026DAston Villa (H) 0–0 · 05/09/2026

DAston Villa (A) 2–2 · 10/10/2026 WChelsea (H) 3–0 · 18/09/2026WReading (A) 2–1 · 15/09/2026DBournemouth (A) 2–2 · 12/09/2026 DSunderland (H) 1–1 · 05/09/2026

Goals scored (season avg)

1.30

2.00

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.00

Win streak (best this season)

xG for (recent avg)

0.98

0.48

xG against (recent avg)

1.10

0.77

Elo strength rating

1377

1566

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Hull City

Winless 5

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored

4/6

Clean sheets

2/6

Brentford

Unbeaten 10

BTTS

5/6

Over 2.5

4/6

Scored

6/6

Clean sheets

1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Premier League

Hull City

2nd best clean sheets (3)

Brentford

Best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Hull City at home · Brentford away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Hull City (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–0L

W 1

D 2

Played3

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)0.70

Clean sheets2

Failed to score1

Brentford (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–3D–0L

D 3

Played3

Goals scored (avg)1.70

Goals conceded (avg)1.70

Clean sheets0

Failed to score0

Hull City (home)Brentford (away)

W 1

D 2

D 3

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.30

1.70

Goals conceded (avg)

0.70

1.70

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1

7.3%

1–0

6.3%

2–0

5.8%

3–1

3.9%

3–0

3.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Brentford 2 wins · 2 draws · Hull City 4 wins · avg 3.4 goals · BTTS in 5 of 8

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
01 Feb 2020	Hull City	1–5	Brentford	Championship
17 Aug 2019	Brentford	1–1	Hull City	Championship
23 Feb 2019	Brentford	5–1	Hull City	Championship
15 Dec 2018	Hull City	2–0	Brentford	Championship
06 May 2018	Brentford	1–1	Hull City	Championship
09 Dec 2017	Hull City	3–2	Brentford	Championship
26 Apr 2016	Hull City	2–0	Brentford	Championship
03 Nov 2015	Brentford	0–2	Hull City	Championship

📈 Recent Form

Hull City

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
11/10	Everton	Home	2–2	D
19/09	Newcastle	Away	1–2	L
12/09	Chelsea	Away	2–2	D
08/09	Sunderland	Away	0–1	L
05/09	Aston Villa	Home	0–0	D

Brentford

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
10/10	Aston Villa	Away	2–2	D
18/09	Chelsea	Home	3–0	W
15/09	Reading	Away	2–1	W
12/09	Bournemouth	Away	2–2	D
05/09	Sunderland	Home	1–1	D

📊 Season Comparison — Premier League

Hull City #8 · 9 pts — Brentford #4 · 10 pts

Hull City

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–1L

W 2

D 3

L 1

Played6

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets3

Failed to score1

Yellow cards19

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.98

xG against (avg)1.10

Corners for (avg)6.00

Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Brentford

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–4D–0L

W 2

D 4

Played6

Goals scored (avg)2.00

Goals conceded (avg)1.00

Clean sheets2

Failed to score0

Yellow cards16

Red cards0

xG for (avg)0.48

xG against (avg)0.77

Corners for (avg)4.40

Penalties (scored/missed)0/1

Hull CityBrentford

W 2

D 3

L 1

W 2

D 4

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.30

2.00

Goals conceded (avg)

1.00

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (avg)

0.98

0.48

xG against (avg)

1.10

0.77

Corners for (avg)

6.00

4.40

Penalties (scored/missed)

0/0

0/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Hull City

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Brentford

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Hull City

❌ J. Butland — Arm Injury
❌ J. Gelhardt — Ankle Injury
❌ D. Gyabi — Groin Injury
❌ C. Hughes — Groin Injury
❌ M. Jacob — Hip Injury
❌ E. Matazo — Knee Injury
❌ H. Morita — Calf Injury
❌ O. Zambrano — Hamstring Injury
❌ I. Ansah — Back Injury
❌ M. Crooks — Muscle Injury
❌ P. McNair — Foot Injury
❌ M. Targett — Ankle Injury
❌ N. Mendy — Injury
❓ M. Cho (doubtful) — Muscle Injury
❓ L. Gourna-Douath (doubtful) — Calf Injury

Brentford

❌ A. Milambo — Knee Injury
❌ S. van den Berg — Injury
❌ J. Dasilva — Injury
❌ M. Jensen — Muscle Injury
❌ N. Collins — Calf Injury
❌ K. Furo — Surgery
❌ M. Damsgaard — Ankle Injury
❓ K. Schade (doubtful) — Injury

More: Premier League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws