AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 18:45 UTC+3 • Round 12 • AFAS Stadion • 🌦 8.4°C, 11 km/h, 0.4mm drizzle
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 10:09 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 1.56 → 1.55 ▼1% | 1xBet1.55 | 60.6% | -6.1% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Betano1.18 | 80.8% | -4.7% |
| BTTS | Yes | Betano1.47 | 68.5% · No 31.5% | +0.7% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Pinnacle1.41 | 68.8% · Under 31.2% | -3% |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Bet3659.00 | 9.2% | -17.2% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.3 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Betano1.55 | 55.8% · Under 44.2% | -13.5% |
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🧠 Match Preview
AZ Alkmaar · Home
AZ Alkmaar have scored eight goals across their last five matches, though they failed to score in two of those games, including the 0-1 loss at Ajax. Their home head-to-head record against Groningen is strong: 4-1 and 3-0 wins in the two most recent meetings staged in Alkmaar.
Groningen · Away
Groningen have scored in all five of their recent matches, netting 14 goals in total, but they also conceded 11. Their latest head-to-head was a 3-0 home win over AZ, showing they can punish this opponent.
AZ's home edge over Groningen
The latest head-to-head, a 3-0 Groningen win on 22 Mar 2026, is the outlier: the two previous meetings both ended as AZ home victories, 4-1 and 3-0. AZ's recent xG for of 2.04 sits close to their model expected goals of 2.09, while Groningen's recent xG for is 1.6 against a model expected goals of 1.48. Groningen have scored in all five recent matches, so a 2-1 correct score fits an open game. The evidence supports AZ Alkmaar win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.
⚽ Current model expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.09 – 1.48 Groningen · expected total 3.57
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
AZ Alkmaar
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
AZ Alkmaar at home · Groningen away, the split that matters for this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar (home)
Groningen (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
AZ Alkmaar 6 wins · 2 draws · Groningen 2 wins · avg 2.4 goals · BTTS in 3 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Groningen | 3–0 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 10 Aug 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 4–1 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 11 May 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 3–0 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 18 Dec 2024 | AZ Alkmaar | 3–1 | Groningen | KNVB Beker |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Groningen | 0–0 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 11 Mar 2023 | AZ Alkmaar | 1–0 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 01 Oct 2022 | Groningen | 1–4 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 21 Dec 2021 | AZ Alkmaar | 1–0 | Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 24 Oct 2021 | Groningen | 2–0 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| 13 May 2021 | Groningen | 0–0 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
📈 Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Ajax | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 25/10 | Twente | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 22/10 | Ararat-Armenia | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 18/10 | Cambuur | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 15/10 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 10/10 | Feyenoord | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Telstar | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 16/09 | Sunderland | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 11/09 | Willem II | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 06/09 | Heerenveen | Away | 3–2 | W |
Groningen
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Sparta Rotterdam | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 25/10 | NEC Nijmegen | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 18/10 | Ajax | Home | 2–5 | L |
| 11/10 | Excelsior | Away | 5–1 | W |
| 18/09 | PEC Zwolle | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 12/09 | GO Ahead Eagles | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 06/09 | Twente | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 28/08 | Fortuna Sittard | Home | 2–3 | L |
| 23/08 | PSV Eindhoven | Away | 1–5 | L |
| 16/08 | ADO Den Haag | Away | 4–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar #5 · 20 pts · Groningen #8 · 15 pts
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
AZ Alkmaar
- ❌ J. Clasie: Injury
- ❌ J. Hornkamp: Ankle Injury
- ❌ D. Kasius: Groin Injury
- ❌ M. Sin: Injury
- ❌ S. Resink: Knee Injury
- ❌ K. Smit: Groin Injury
- ❌ A. Oufkir: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): A. Natali, R. Robbemond, T. Parrott, J. Zoet, W. Goes; not counted as confirmed absences.
Groningen
- ❌ M. Jeng: Leg Injury
- ❌ S. Resink: Knee Injury
- ❌ O. Zawada: Knock
- ❌ T. Mercera: Injury
- ❌ R. Metu: Injury
- ❌ M. Rente: Injury
- ❌ N. Brandis: Injury
- ❌ T. Hernes: Injury
- ❌ E. van der Laan: Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): W. Prins; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Eredivisie predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws