Predictions → Scotland Championship

Queen's Park vs Inverness CT

Next match: Tue, 13 Oct 2026 • 18:45 UTC+3 • Round 9 • The City Stadium • 🌦 9.6°C, 17 km/h, 0.1mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 1.67 → 1.76 ▲5% 83% 53.1% 1.76 Pinnacle 56.6% -3.5 pp
Double Chance X2 70% 70.6% 1.22 Betano 79.9% -9.3 pp
BTTS Yes 81% 48.5% 1.87 Betfair 50.4% -1.9 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 81% 49.3% 1.87 Betfair 51.2% -1.9 pp
Correct Score 0-1 68% 10.5% 7.00 Bet365 7.2% +3.3 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Queen's Park 0.93 – 1.23 Inverness CT · expected total 2.16

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed — the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes — critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip — a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Queen's Park host Inverness CT at The City Stadium on Tuesday with the two clubs separated by nine points after nine rounds. The home side sit 10th on 4 points, while the visitors are 5th on 13, and the form lines point in the same direction: Queen's Park have lost four of their last five (LLLLW), whereas Inverness arrive with WWDWL.

The model leans clearly toward the away side, giving Inverness a 53.1 percent win probability at odds of 1.76, with confidence rated at 83. The expected goals split supports that edge, with the hosts at 0.9298 and the visitors at 1.2314, and no injuries are listed for either squad. The head-to-head record is unusually lopsided in Inverness's favour too: four of the last five meetings went their way, including a 0-1 at this venue in April 2024 and a 1-4 rout in December 2023.

For bettors, the double chance X2 at 70.6 percent is the safer route, while the away win at 1.76 is the headline play. Both teams to score is priced at 1.87 with a 48.5 percent model probability, and Under 2.5 goals at 1.87 carries 49.3 percent. The most likely correct score is 0-1 at 10.5 percent, followed by 0-2 at 8.74 and 1-2 at 8.12.

The honest caveat: Queen's Park's only recent win came in that LLLLW run, so a low-scoring home upset is not impossible, and the Under 2.5 and BTTS numbers sit close to a coin flip, so treat those markets with caution.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 — refreshed when the underlying data changes.

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Queen's Park

Form (last 5)
LRaith Rovers (A) 0–2 · 10/10/2026LArbroath (A) 1–2 · 25/09/2026LAyr Utd (H) 0–2 · 18/09/2026LDunfermline (A) 0–2 · 12/09/2026WMorton (H) 2–1 · 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1419

Inverness CT

Form (last 5)
WStenhousemuir (H) 2–0 · 10/10/2026WMorton (H) 2–0 · 25/09/2026DLivingston (A) 2–2 · 19/09/2026WAyr Utd (A) 3–1 · 12/09/2026LRaith Rovers (H) 0–2 · 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1427
Queen's ParkInverness CT
Goals scored (season avg)
0.40
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.70
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
Elo strength rating
1419
1427

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors — each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Queen's Park

Lost 4 in a row Winless 4
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Inverness CT

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks — Championship

Queen's Park

Worst attack (0.40 goals/game) 2nd worst defence (1.70 conceded/game) 2nd worst clean sheets (1)

Inverness CT

3rd best BTTS rate (50%)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets — season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates — last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Queen's Park at home · Inverness CT away — the split that matters for this fixture.

Queen's Park (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–3L
W 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Inverness CT (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Queen's Park (home)Inverness CT (away)
W 1
L 3
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
1.50
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
2
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
10.5%
0–2
7.1%
1–2
6.6%
0–3
2.9%
1–3
2.7%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture — computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Inverness CT 2 wins · 2 draws · Queen's Park 5 wins · avg 2.2 goals · BTTS in 5 of 9

2
2
5
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
13 Apr 2024 Queen's Park 0–1 Inverness CT Championship
03 Feb 2024 Inverness CT 0–1 Queen's Park Championship
09 Dec 2023 Queen's Park 1–4 Inverness CT Championship
05 Aug 2023 Inverness CT 1–2 Queen's Park Championship
18 Mar 2023 Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT Championship
31 Jan 2023 Inverness CT 0–2 Queen's Park FA Cup
14 Jan 2023 Inverness CT 0–0 Queen's Park Championship
12 Nov 2022 Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT Championship
30 Jul 2022 Inverness CT 1–1 Queen's Park Championship

📈 Recent Form

Queen's Park

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Raith Rovers Away 0–2 L
25/09 Arbroath Away 1–2 L
18/09 Ayr Utd Home 0–2 L
12/09 Dunfermline Away 0–2 L
05/09 Morton Home 2–1 W

Inverness CT

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Stenhousemuir Home 2–0 W
25/09 Morton Home 2–0 W
19/09 Livingston Away 2–2 D
12/09 Ayr Utd Away 3–1 W
05/09 Raith Rovers Home 0–2 L

📊 Season Comparison — Championship

Queen's Park #10 · 4 pts —  Inverness CT #5 · 13 pts

Queen's Park

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–7L
W 1
D 1
L 7
Played9
Goals scored (avg)0.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score6
Yellow cards23
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Inverness CT

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–2L
W 3
D 4
L 2
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Yellow cards18
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Queen's ParkInverness CT
W 1
D 1
L 7
W 3
D 4
L 2
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
0.40
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.70
1.00
Clean sheets
1
4
Failed to score
6
3
Yellow cards
23
18
Red cards
0
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Queen's Park

2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Inverness CT

1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

Referee: D. Nicolson