Predictions β†’ Scotland Championship

Queen's Park vs Dunfermline

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 12 β€’ The City Stadium β€’ ☁️ 7.9Β°C, 6 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Draw 76% 36.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance X2 75% 77.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 85% 57.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 89% 65.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 0-0 85% 23.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Queen's Park 0.51 – 0.85 Dunfermline Β· expected total 1.35

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Queen's Park host Dunfermline at The City Stadium on Saturday with the two clubs heading in opposite directions. The home side sit 10th on just 4 points from 9 games, while the visitors are 6th with 13 points from 8. Recent form underlines the gap: Queen's Park have lost four of their last five (LLLLW), whereas Dunfermline arrive unbeaten across their last five (DLWWD).

The model leans heavily on a low-scoring script. Expected goals come out at 0.5065 for Queen's Park and 0.8472 for Dunfermline, and the head-to-head record supports that caution β€” the last five meetings produced 2-0, 0-2, 1-0, 1-1 and 0-0, with Dunfermline winning three. No injuries are listed for either squad, so team news offers no obvious disruption.

On the tips, the draw is the headline call at 36.3 percent with a confidence reading of 76, and the double chance X2 is rated at 77.5 percent β€” the safest angle given the form and table picture. Both teams to score is tipped No at 57.1 percent, while Under 2.5 goals carries 65.2 percent. The correct score model points to 0-0 at 23.9 percent, with 1-1 next at 12.19.

Value likely hides in the unders and the draw, since the market may overprice Dunfermline's edge. The honest caveat: Queen's Park's form is dire, but a single early goal could flip this into a more open game and punish the low-scoring leans.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Queen's Park

Form (last 5)
LRaith Rovers (A) 0–2 Β· 10/10/2026LArbroath (A) 1–2 Β· 25/09/2026LAyr Utd (H) 0–2 Β· 18/09/2026LDunfermline (A) 0–2 Β· 12/09/2026WMorton (H) 2–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1419

Dunfermline

Form (last 5)
DAyr Utd (A) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026LAberdeen (H) 1–4 Β· 03/10/2026WMorton (A) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WQueen's Park (H) 2–0 Β· 12/09/2026DArbroath (A) 1–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1561
Queen's ParkDunfermline
Goals scored (season avg)
0.40
0.90
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.70
0.60
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
Elo strength rating
1419
1561

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Queen's Park

Lost 4 in a row Winless 4
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Dunfermline

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
3/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Queen's Park

Worst attack (0.40 goals/game) 2nd worst defence (1.70 conceded/game) 2nd worst clean sheets (1)

Dunfermline

3rd best defence (0.60 conceded/game) 3rd best BTTS rate (50%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Queen's Park at home Β· Dunfermline away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Queen's Park (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–0D–3L
W 1
L 3
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Dunfermline (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–3D–1L
W 1
D 3
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2
Queen's Park (home)Dunfermline (away)
W 1
L 3
W 1
D 3
L 1
Played
4
5
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
0.60
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
0.80
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
2
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–0
23.9%
1–1
10.8%
2–2
1.1%
3–3
0.1%
4–4
0%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Dunfermline 4 wins Β· 4 draws Β· Queen's Park 2 wins Β· avg 1.4 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 10

4
4
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
12 Sep 2026 Dunfermline 2–0 Queen's Park Championship
25 Apr 2026 Queen's Park 0–2 Dunfermline Championship
28 Feb 2026 Dunfermline 1–0 Queen's Park Championship
13 Dec 2025 Queen's Park 1–1 Dunfermline Championship
04 Oct 2025 Dunfermline 0–0 Queen's Park Championship
12 Apr 2025 Queen's Park 0–1 Dunfermline Championship
22 Feb 2025 Dunfermline 0–0 Queen's Park Championship
09 Nov 2024 Queen's Park 2–1 Dunfermline Championship
28 Sep 2024 Dunfermline 1–2 Queen's Park Championship
20 Apr 2024 Dunfermline 0–0 Queen's Park Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Queen's Park

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Raith Rovers Away 0–2 L
25/09 Arbroath Away 1–2 L
18/09 Ayr Utd Home 0–2 L
12/09 Dunfermline Away 0–2 L
05/09 Morton Home 2–1 W

Dunfermline

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Ayr Utd Away 1–1 D
03/10 Aberdeen Home 1–4 L
19/09 Morton Away 1–0 W
12/09 Queen's Park Home 2–0 W
05/09 Arbroath Away 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Queen's Park #10 Β· 4 pts β€”  Dunfermline #6 Β· 13 pts

Queen's Park

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–7L
W 1
D 1
L 7
Played9
Goals scored (avg)0.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score6
Yellow cards23
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Dunfermline

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–1L
W 3
D 4
L 1
Played8
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets4
Failed to score2
Yellow cards14
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
Queen's ParkDunfermline
W 1
D 1
L 7
W 3
D 4
L 1
Played
9
8
Goals scored (avg)
0.40
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
1.70
0.60
Clean sheets
1
4
Failed to score
6
2
Yellow cards
23
14
Red cards
0
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Queen's Park

2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Dunfermline

0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws