Predictions β†’ Scotland Championship

Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park

Next match: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 β€’ 15:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 13 β€’ Somerset Park

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 88% 68% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 82% 86.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 84% 54.4% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 85% 56.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 78% 15.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Ayr Utd 1.57 – 0.50 Queen's Park Β· expected total 2.08

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Ayr Utd host Queen's Park at Somerset Park on Saturday in a Championship Round 13 fixture that pits mid-table comfort against early-season struggle. The home side sit 7th on 12 points from 10 games, while the visitors are 10th with just 4 points from 9 β€” a gap the model expects to show on the pitch.

Form points the same direction. Ayr arrive on a DWLWL run, inconsistent but capable of results, whereas Queen's Park have lost four of their last five (LLLLW) and look short on confidence. The expected goals numbers are stark: Ayr are projected at 1.5733, Queen's Park at just 0.5034, underlining how little attacking threat the visitors are expected to carry. No injuries are listed for either side, so both should be close to full strength.

The headline tip is a Home win at 68% probability with 88 confidence. Double chance 1X is rated 86.8%, the safest route if you want to avoid the upset. Both teams to score is tipped No at 54.4%, and Under 2.5 goals at 56.6% β€” consistent with a low-scoring away projection. The correct score model favours 1-0 at 15.9%, with 1-0 (18.75), 2-0 (15.53) and 3-0 (8.15) leading the top-score list. Recent head-to-head offers a note of caution: Queen's Park won 1-2 at Somerset Park in March 2026 and drew twice in the last five meetings, so the visitors have frustrated Ayr before.

The obvious risk is Ayr's patchy form and that head-to-head record β€” a low-block Queen's Park side could grind out another draw. Back the home win or 1X, but treat the correct-score and BTTS No angles as the value plays rather than certainties.

Updated 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Ayr Utd

Form (last 5)
DDunfermline (H) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026WLivingston (A) 2–1 Β· 03/10/2026LStenhousemuir (H) 0–1 Β· 25/09/2026WQueen's Park (A) 2–0 Β· 18/09/2026LInverness CT (H) 1–3 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1458

Queen's Park

Form (last 5)
LRaith Rovers (A) 0–2 Β· 10/10/2026LArbroath (A) 1–2 Β· 25/09/2026LAyr Utd (H) 0–2 Β· 18/09/2026LDunfermline (A) 0–2 Β· 12/09/2026WMorton (H) 2–1 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.70
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1419
Ayr UtdQueen's Park
Goals scored (season avg)
1.00
0.40
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.10
1.70
Win streak (best this season)
1
1
Elo strength rating
1458
1419

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Ayr Utd

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Queen's Park

Lost 4 in a row Winless 4
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
2/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Ayr Utd

3rd best BTTS rate (50%)

Queen's Park

Worst attack (0.40 goals/game) 2nd worst defence (1.70 conceded/game) 2nd worst clean sheets (1)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Ayr Utd at home Β· Queen's Park away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Ayr Utd (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–2L
W 1
D 2
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1

Queen's Park (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–1D–4L
D 1
L 4
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.60
Clean sheets1
Failed to score4
Ayr Utd (home)Queen's Park (away)
W 1
D 2
L 2
D 1
L 4
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
0.20
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.60
Clean sheets
1
1
Failed to score
1
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
15.9%
2–0
13.2%
3–0
6.9%
2–1
6.6%
3–1
3.5%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Ayr Utd 3 wins Β· 5 draws Β· Queen's Park 2 wins Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 8 of 10

3
5
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
18 Sep 2026 Queen's Park 0–2 Ayr Utd Championship
14 Mar 2026 Queen's Park 1–1 Ayr Utd Championship
10 Mar 2026 Ayr Utd 1–2 Queen's Park Championship
25 Oct 2025 Queen's Park 0–0 Ayr Utd Championship
30 Aug 2025 Ayr Utd 1–1 Queen's Park Championship
26 Apr 2025 Ayr Utd 2–2 Queen's Park Championship
04 Mar 2025 Queen's Park 2–3 Ayr Utd Championship
16 Nov 2024 Ayr Utd 3–2 Queen's Park Championship
21 Sep 2024 Queen's Park 1–1 Ayr Utd Championship
23 Mar 2024 Ayr Utd 1–2 Queen's Park Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Ayr Utd

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Dunfermline Home 1–1 D
03/10 Livingston Away 2–1 W
25/09 Stenhousemuir Home 0–1 L
18/09 Queen's Park Away 2–0 W
12/09 Inverness CT Home 1–3 L

Queen's Park

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Raith Rovers Away 0–2 L
25/09 Arbroath Away 1–2 L
18/09 Ayr Utd Home 0–2 L
12/09 Dunfermline Away 0–2 L
05/09 Morton Home 2–1 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Ayr Utd #7 Β· 12 pts β€”  Queen's Park #10 Β· 4 pts

Ayr Utd

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–4L
W 3
D 3
L 4
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards17
Red cards2
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1

Queen's Park

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–7L
W 1
D 1
L 7
Played9
Goals scored (avg)0.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score6
Yellow cards23
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Ayr UtdQueen's Park
W 3
D 3
L 4
W 1
D 1
L 7
Played
10
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.00
0.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.10
1.70
Clean sheets
2
1
Failed to score
3
6
Yellow cards
17
23
Red cards
2
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/1
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Ayr Utd

4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Queen's Park

2
0-15
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws