Predictions β†’ Scotland Championship

Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 12 β€’ ☁️ 11.2Β°C, 10 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 88% 66.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 77% 79.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 83% 52% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83% 53.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-1 64% 7.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Raith Rovers 2.27 – 1.14 Inverness CT Β· expected total 3.41

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Raith Rovers sit second in the Championship on 20 points from 10 games, and Saturday's visit of fifth-placed Inverness CT is a chance to keep pace at the top. The visitors have 13 points from 9, so the gap is real but not unbridgeable, and both sides arrive in reasonable touch: Raith's last five read WWLDW, Inverness WWDWL.

The model leans heavily on Raith's attacking output. Their expected goals figure for this match stands at 2.2691 against Inverness's 1.1406, a split that explains the home win being priced at 66.3 percent with confidence of 88. The double chance 1X lands at 79.8 percent, while both teams to score sits at 52 percent and over 2.5 goals at 53.7 percent. The correct score picture points to 2-1 as the single most likely outcome at 7.7 percent, followed by 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 and 3-0. Recent head-to-heads back the home side strongly: Raith have won four of the last five meetings, including 4-1 and 5-1 at home and a 2-0 win at Inverness in September. No injuries are listed for either squad.

The value question is whether the bookmaker prices reflect that 66.3 percent home probability. If Raith are trading shorter than the model implies, the 1X at 79.8 percent or the over 2.5 at 53.7 percent may offer better routes in. The honest caveat: 53.7 percent on overs is barely better than a coin flip, and Inverness's away form is not poor, so a low-scoring upset is the risk to respect.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Raith Rovers

Form (last 5)
WQueen's Park (H) 2–0 Β· 10/10/2026WMorton (A) 2–1 Β· 03/10/2026LLivingston (H) 0–2 Β· 25/09/2026DPartick (A) 0–0 Β· 19/09/2026WArbroath (H) 4–0 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)0.60
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1541

Inverness CT

Form (last 5)
WStenhousemuir (H) 2–0 Β· 10/10/2026WMorton (H) 2–0 Β· 25/09/2026DLivingston (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026WAyr Utd (A) 3–1 Β· 12/09/2026LRaith Rovers (H) 0–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)1.00
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1427
Raith RoversInverness CT
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.60
1.00
Win streak (best this season)
2
1
Elo strength rating
1541
1427

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Raith Rovers

Won 2 in a row
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Inverness CT

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 4
BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Raith Rovers

Best attack (1.50 goals/game) 3rd best defence (0.60 conceded/game) 3rd best clean sheets (5)

Inverness CT

3rd best BTTS rate (50%)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Raith Rovers at home Β· Inverness CT away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Raith Rovers (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–1L
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.80
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1

Inverness CT (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–2D–1L
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played4
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets1
Failed to score1
Raith Rovers (home)Inverness CT (away)
W 3
D 1
L 1
W 1
D 2
L 1
Played
5
4
Goals scored (avg)
1.80
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
1.50
Clean sheets
3
1
Failed to score
1
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.7%
2–0
6.8%
3–1
5.8%
1–0
5.3%
3–0
5.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Inverness CT 2 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Raith Rovers 7 wins Β· avg 3 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

2
1
7
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
05 Sep 2026 Inverness CT 0–2 Raith Rovers Championship
05 Apr 2026 Raith Rovers 4–1 Inverness CT Challenge Cup
26 Jul 2025 Raith Rovers 5–1 Inverness CT League Cup
06 Jul 2024 Raith Rovers 1–0 Inverness CT Friendlies Clubs
19 Apr 2024 Inverness CT 0–1 Raith Rovers Championship
27 Jan 2024 Raith Rovers 2–3 Inverness CT Championship
02 Dec 2023 Inverness CT 1–2 Raith Rovers Championship
16 Sep 2023 Raith Rovers 1–0 Inverness CT Championship
08 Apr 2023 Inverness CT 2–0 Raith Rovers Championship
28 Jan 2023 Raith Rovers 2–2 Inverness CT Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Raith Rovers

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Queen's Park Home 2–0 W
03/10 Morton Away 2–1 W
25/09 Livingston Home 0–2 L
19/09 Partick Away 0–0 D
12/09 Arbroath Home 4–0 W

Inverness CT

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Stenhousemuir Home 2–0 W
25/09 Morton Home 2–0 W
19/09 Livingston Away 2–2 D
12/09 Ayr Utd Away 3–1 W
05/09 Raith Rovers Home 0–2 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Raith Rovers #2 Β· 20 pts β€”  Inverness CT #5 Β· 13 pts

Raith Rovers

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–2D–2L
W 6
D 2
L 2
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3
Yellow cards19
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)3/0

Inverness CT

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–4D–2L
W 3
D 4
L 2
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Yellow cards18
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
Raith RoversInverness CT
W 6
D 2
L 2
W 3
D 4
L 2
Played
10
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded (avg)
0.60
1.00
Clean sheets
5
4
Failed to score
3
3
Yellow cards
19
18
Red cards
0
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
3/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Raith Rovers

0-15
5
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Inverness CT

1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws