Partick vs Morton

Partick host Morton at Firhill on Saturday sitting third in the Championship on 18 points from 9 games, while the visitors are down in tenth with just 4 points from 10. The gap in the table is mirrored by the form lines: Partick arrive on WWDLW, Morton on WLLLL, and the model has taken note.

The attacking numbers tell the story. Partick's expected goals figure stands at 1.8968, Morton's at just 0.4593 — a chasm that explains why the home win is priced at 78.7% with 92 confidence. The double chance 1X comes in at 90.5%, and with no injuries reported on either side, both managers have full squads to choose from. History offers Morton little comfort either: Partick have won three of the last five meetings, including a 1-0 at Morton in August and a 3-2 at Firhill in January, with the other two ending 1-1.

For bettors, the headline tip is a home win, but the value may hide elsewhere. Both teams to score is tipped No at 56.4%, and Under 2.5 goals at 51.5% — modest edges that reflect Morton's blunt attack rather than Partick's caution. The correct score market leans heavily on 1-0 at 17.21, with 2-0 close behind at 17.11 and 3-0 at 10.82, suggesting the model expects a controlled, low-scoring home performance.

The honest caveat: those BTTS and Under percentages are only slightly better than a coin flip, and Morton's solitary recent win shows they can spring a surprise. Treat the side markets as thin value, not certainties.