Predictions β†’ Scotland Championship

Partick vs Stenhousemuir

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 12 β€’ Firhill Stadium β€’ ☁️ 7.9Β°C, 6 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 81% 48.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 72% 72.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 82% 51.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 82% 50.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-1 63% 7.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Partick 1.66 – 1.11 Stenhousemuir Β· expected total 2.77

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Partick host Stenhousemuir at Firhill on Saturday with third place in the Championship on the line against the current league leaders. The visitors arrive top of the table on 22 points from 9 games, while Partick sit third on 18 points from the same number of matches, so this is a genuine chance for the home side to close the gap on the summit.

The model leans toward the hosts despite the standings. Partick's recent form reads WWDLW, and their attacking output is projected at 1.6563 expected goals against Stenhousemuir's 1.1121, a clear edge in chance creation. Stenhousemuir's own form is LWWWL, and the head-to-head record offers encouragement for Partick too: four of the last five meetings went their way, including a 1-4 and a 0-2 at this fixture's reverse, though the most recent clash on 15 Sep 2026 ended 1-0 to Stenhousemuir. No injuries are reported on either side.

The headline tip is a home win at 48.3 percent with confidence of 81, and the double chance 1X sits at 72.6 percent, the safest angle on the board. Both teams to score is tipped No at 51.5 percent, while Under 2.5 goals carries 50.8 percent. The correct-score model favours 2-1 at 7.6 percent, with 1-0 and 2-0 close behind.

The obvious risk is that Stenhousemuir lead the division for a reason, and a single-goal margin keeps the draw live throughout. Treat the home win as a lean rather than a lock.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Partick

Form (last 5)
WLivingston (A) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026WArbroath (H) 3–0 Β· 03/10/2026DRaith Rovers (H) 0–0 Β· 19/09/2026LStenhousemuir (A) 0–1 Β· 15/09/2026WAyr Utd (H) 1–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.10
Goals conceded (season avg)0.30
Win streak (best this season)2
Elo strength rating1590

Stenhousemuir

Form (last 5)
LInverness CT (A) 0–2 Β· 10/10/2026WAyr Utd (A) 1–0 Β· 25/09/2026WArbroath (H) 1–0 Β· 19/09/2026WPartick (H) 1–0 Β· 15/09/2026LHeart Of Midlothian (H) 0–3 Β· 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)0.40
Win streak (best this season)7
Elo strength rating1396
PartickStenhousemuir
Goals scored (season avg)
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.30
0.40
Win streak (best this season)
2
7
Elo strength rating
1590
1396

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Partick

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 3
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Stenhousemuir

BTTS
0/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
4/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Partick

Best defence (0.30 conceded/game) Best clean sheets (6)

Stenhousemuir

3rd best attack (1.30 goals/game) 2nd best defence (0.40 conceded/game) Worst BTTS rate (0%) 2nd worst Over 2.5 rate (17%) Best clean sheets (6)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Partick at home Β· Stenhousemuir away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Partick (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–0L
W 3
D 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.20
Goals conceded (avg)0.00
Clean sheets5
Failed to score2

Stenhousemuir (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–1D–1L
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.60
Clean sheets3
Failed to score1
Partick (home)Stenhousemuir (away)
W 3
D 2
W 3
D 1
L 1
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
1.20
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.00
0.60
Clean sheets
5
3
Failed to score
2
1

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–1
7.6%
1–0
7.3%
2–0
6.8%
3–1
4.2%
3–0
3.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Partick 4 wins Β· 0 draws Β· Stenhousemuir 1 win Β· avg 2.8 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 5

4
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
15 Sep 2026 Stenhousemuir 1–0 Partick Championship
09 Jul 2022 Stenhousemuir 1–2 Partick League Cup
17 Jul 2021 Stenhousemuir 1–2 Partick League Cup
16 Nov 2019 Stenhousemuir 1–4 Partick Challenge Cup
14 Jul 2018 Stenhousemuir 0–2 Partick League Cup

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Partick

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Livingston Away 2–1 W
03/10 Arbroath Home 3–0 W
19/09 Raith Rovers Home 0–0 D
15/09 Stenhousemuir Away 0–1 L
05/09 Ayr Utd Home 1–0 W

Stenhousemuir

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Inverness CT Away 0–2 L
25/09 Ayr Utd Away 1–0 W
19/09 Arbroath Home 1–0 W
15/09 Partick Home 1–0 W
11/09 Heart Of Midlothian Home 0–3 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Partick #3 Β· 18 pts β€”  Stenhousemuir #1 Β· 22 pts

Partick

Wins–Draws–Losses5W–3D–1L
W 5
D 3
L 1
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.10
Goals conceded (avg)0.30
Clean sheets6
Failed to score3
Yellow cards15
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Stenhousemuir

Wins–Draws–Losses7W–1D–1L
W 7
D 1
L 1
Played9
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)0.40
Clean sheets6
Failed to score1
Yellow cards21
Red cards0
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0
PartickStenhousemuir
W 5
D 3
L 1
W 7
D 1
L 1
Played
9
9
Goals scored (avg)
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
0.30
0.40
Clean sheets
6
6
Failed to score
3
1
Yellow cards
15
21
Red cards
0
0
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
0/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Partick

0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
1
scored conceded

Stenhousemuir

0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws