Sevilla vs Alaves
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Fri, 06 Nov 2026 • 23:00 UTC+3 • Round 12 • ⛅ 20.2°C, 1 km/h partly cloudy
Snapshotted at publish: Under 9.5 at 1.47 (72.5%, Model EV +6.6%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home 2.15 → 2.05 ▼5% | 1xBet2.05 | 49.6% | +1.7% |
| Double Chance | 1X | 1xBet1.27 | 77.6% | -1.4% |
| BTTS | No | Betfair1.87 | 47.4% · Yes 52.6% | -11.4% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1xBet1.73 | 55.3% · Over 44.7% | -4.3% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Bet3656.50 | 10.3% | -33.1% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~6.8 exp.) | Under 9.5 | 1xBet1.47 | 72.5% · Over 27.5% | +6.6% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Sevilla · Home
Sevilla have scored in all five recent matches, including 2-0 at home to Osasuna, though they conceded 13 goals across that run. Their latest meeting with Alaves finished 1-1, and the model gives them 1.57 expected goals here.
Alaves · Away
Alaves have not won in five, drawing 1-1 with Malaga and 0-0 at Athletic Club, and they failed to score in one of those games. They did win the most recent away H2H 1-0, so they are not a soft opponent.
Sevilla edge a tight H2H
The latest H2H was a 1-1 draw, and Alaves won the previous meeting 1-0, so this matchup has been close. Sevilla's 2-0 home win over Osasuna shows they can take a home result, while Alaves' 0-0 at Athletic Club shows they can also keep a game tight. The model's 1-0 correct score and Under 2.5 lean fit that pattern, and the 49.6% home probability is the most realistic route. The evidence supports Sevilla win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Sevilla 1.57 – 1.05 Alaves · expected total 2.62
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Sevilla
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Sevilla
Alaves
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: La Liga
Sevilla
Alaves
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Rank among 20 La Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Sevilla at home · Alaves away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Sevilla (home)
Alaves (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Alaves 4 wins · 4 draws · Sevilla 2 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Sevilla | 1–1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 17 Dec 2025 | Alaves | 1–0 | Sevilla | Copa del Rey |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Alaves | 1–2 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 20 Apr 2025 | Sevilla | 1–1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 20 Sep 2024 | Alaves | 2–1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Sevilla | 2–3 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Alaves | 4–3 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 17 Jan 2023 | Alaves | 0–1 | Sevilla | Copa del Rey |
| 04 Mar 2022 | Alaves | 0–0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 20 Nov 2021 | Sevilla | 2–2 | Alaves | La Liga |
📈 Recent Form
Sevilla
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Getafe | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 26/10 | Osasuna | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 18/10 | Real Madrid | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 12/10 | Levante | Away | 3–3 | D |
| 02/10 | Aston Villa | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 19/09 | Barcelona | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 16/09 | Deportivo La Coruna | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 11/09 | Valencia | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 06/09 | Espanyol | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 29/08 | Atletico Madrid | Home | 1–3 | L |
Alaves
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Barcelona | Away | 1–6 | L |
| 23/10 | Malaga | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 18/10 | Celta Vigo | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 10/10 | Atletico Madrid | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 19/09 | Athletic Club | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 15/09 | Valencia | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 12/09 | Racing Santander | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 06/09 | Osasuna | Home | 5–2 | W |
| 28/08 | Villarreal | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 20/08 | Rayo Vallecano | Away | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: La Liga
Sevilla #6 · 17 pts · Alaves #10 · 12 pts
Sevilla
Alaves
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Sevilla
Alaves
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Sevilla
- ❌ A. Gonzalez: Muscle Injury
- ❌ Marcao: Foot Injury
- ❌ K. Salas: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ A. Sangante: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ L. Stassin: Muscle Injury
- ❌ I. Munoz: Injury
- ❌ M. Sierra: Shoulder Injury
- ❌ J. Guridi: Muscle Injury
- ❌ G. Kochorashvili: Calf Injury
- ❌ I. Romero: Suspended (Red Card)
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): R. Vargas (Transfer negotiations), N. Guillen (Coach's decision).
Alaves
- ❌ F. Garces: Suspended (Suspended)
- ❌ T. Mendes: Knee Injury
- ❌ N. Valentini: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ T. Martinez: Foot Injury
- ❌ M. Rodriguez: Ankle Injury
- ❌ A. Manas: Injury
- ❌ A. Perez: Suspended (Red Card)
More: La Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws