Levante vs Atletico Madrid

Levante sit 17th with 7 points from 8 games and welcome a second-placed Atletico Madrid side on 22 points from 9. The gap in the table frames everything: the hosts are scrapping near the bottom, the visitors are chasing at the top, and the model leans clearly away.

Form backs that up. Levante's last five read DDLLD, while Atletico arrive on WWWWL. The expected-goals numbers tell the same story: Levante are modelled at 0.97 for this match against recent xG of 1.25, Atletico at 1.479 against a recent 2.35. In short, the model rates Atletico's attack well below its hot streak, which is why the away win lands at 46.7 percent rather than something gaudier. The double chance X2 at 73.5 percent is the safer expression of the same view. Levante's injury list includes R. Brugue, A. Primo, K. Etta Eyong and H. Sotelo; Atletico's is long, naming J. Alvarez, T. Lemar, C. Romero, A. Sorloth, O. Vargas, R. Le Normand, P. Barrios, J. Cardoso, Koke and R. Mendoza.

The goals markets point low. Under 2.5 comes in at 42.8 percent and both teams to score No at 45.1 percent, with the correct-score model favouring 0-1 at 9.3 percent and listing 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 and 1-3 as the top lines. Corners lean under 9.5 at 53.4 percent on an expected 8.9. Recent head-to-heads were 0-0, 3-1 Atletico, 0-2, 0-1 and 2-2, so low-scoring away wins have precedent.

Value hunting depends on prices the snapshot doesn't carry, so compare the 46.7 percent away win and 73.5 percent X2 against what's on offer. The honest caveat: Atletico's recent 2.35 xG sits well above the 1.479 the model assigns here, and that ten-name injury list is a real drag on certainty.