Toronto FC vs DC United

Toronto FC host DC United at BMO Field in Round 32 of the MLS regular season, a late-season fixture where home advantage should matter. The model leans toward the hosts, giving Toronto a 51.4 percent win probability at confidence 82, with the double chance on 1X priced at 73.3 percent.

Form is mixed on both sides: Toronto arrive on DWLLL, DC United on WLLDL. The underlying numbers favour the home team more clearly than the table would suggest. Toronto's expected goals stand at 1.8108 against DC's 1.1793, and recent shot quality backs that up with 2.1 xG for the hosts versus 1.4 for the visitors. The head-to-head is tight and high-scoring, with a 2-1 DC win in July, a 2-0 Toronto win in May 2025 and a 2-2 draw before that, so goals look likely again.

The tips follow that logic. Both teams to score lands at 55 percent, Over 2.5 goals at 55.6 percent, and the correct-score model points to 2-1 at 7.7 percent, with 2-0 and 1-0 close behind. Corners are worth a look too: an expected 10.5 against a 9.5 line gives 54 percent for the over. With no bookmaker odds quoted in this snapshot, value is hard to pin down precisely, but the model's edge sits in the home win and the goals markets rather than anything exotic.

The honest caveat is the injury list. Both squads are heavily depleted, with Toronto missing a long list including Mihailovic, Osorio and Laryea, and DC without Baribo and others. That kind of disruption can distort form and xG, so treat the probabilities as a guide rather than a guarantee.