Botafogo vs Atletico-MG

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 • 03:30 UTC+3 • Round 34 • Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos • ⛅ 25.6°C, 4 km/h partly cloudy

PREDICTLIX BEST BET

BTTS: No

Model probability 62.1% · Market implied at best price ≈ 44.4% · EV at shown price +39.7%

Best odds 2.25 · BetVictor Betano 2.221xBet 2.21

Snapshotted at publish: No at 2.25 (59.1%, Model EV +33.0%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.

Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

Market	Tip	Odds	Probability	Model EV
Match Result (1X2)	Home 2.25 → 2.05 ▼9%	1xBet2.05	46%	-5.7%
Double Chance	1X	Betano1.33	74%	-1.6%
BTTS	No	BetVictor2.25	62.1% · Yes 37.9%	+39.7%
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	Pinnacle2.19	52.5% · Over 47.5%	+15%
Correct Score	1-0	Bet3659.00	14.5%	+30.5%
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.7 exp.)	Over 9.5	Betano1.37	70% · Under 30%	-4.1%

🧠 Match Preview

Botafogo · Home

Botafogo's recent form is modest: one win, one draw and three defeats in five, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their latest home league result was a 1-0 win over Chapecoense-sc, and their model expected goals of 1.03 is the higher of the two forecasts.

Atletico-MG · Away

Atletico-MG have scored 6 and conceded 6 across their last five, but their recent xG for of 1.62 sits well above a model expected goals of 0.84 here. They failed to score in two of those five matches, including the 0-1 home defeat to Cruzeiro.

Tight H2H Points to Home Edge

The latest head-to-head, on 10 May 2026, finished 1-1 at Atletico-MG, while Botafogo won the previous meeting at home 1-0. All three supplied H2H results were decided by a single goal or drawn, and the 1-0 correct-score pick fits that narrow pattern. Botafogo's 1-0 home win over Chapecoense-sc shows they can edge a low-scoring game, and the Under 2.5 lean supports that. The evidence supports Botafogo win.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Botafogo 1.03 – 0.84 Atletico-MG · expected total 1.87

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🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Botafogo

Form (last 5)

L L W D L

Goals scored (season avg)1.40

Goals conceded (season avg)1.60

Best league winning streak this season3

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.90

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.15

Elo strength rating1483

Players out21

Atletico-MG

Form (last 5)

L LLWW

Goals scored (season avg)1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)1.20

Best league winning streak this season2

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.62

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.16

Elo strength rating1516

Players out25

BotafogoAtletico-MG

L L W D L

L LLWW

Goals scored (season avg)

1.40

1.30

Goals conceded (season avg)

1.60

1.20

Best league winning streak this season

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)

0.90

1.62

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)

1.15

1.16

Elo strength rating

1483

1516

Players out

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Botafogo

Lost 2 in a row

BTTS

3/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored a goal

4/6

No goals conceded

1/6

Atletico-MG

Lost 3 in a row Winless 3

BTTS

2/6

Over 2.5

3/6

Scored a goal

4/6

No goals conceded

2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A

Botafogo

2nd worst defence (1.60 conceded/game, season)

Atletico-MG

3rd best defence (1.20 conceded/game, season)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Botafogo at home · Atletico-MG away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Botafogo (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–6D–4L

W 6

D 6

L 4

Played16

Goals scored (avg)1.60

Goals conceded (avg)1.40

Clean sheets4

Failed to score3

Atletico-MG (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–3D–9L

W 4

D 3

L 9

Played16

Goals scored (avg)1.10

Goals conceded (avg)1.30

Clean sheets3

Failed to score8

Botafogo (home)Atletico-MG (away)

W 6

D 6

L 4

W 4

D 3

L 9

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.60

1.10

Goals conceded (avg)

1.40

1.30

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–0

14.48%

2–0

8.11%

2–1

6.84%

3–0

2.77%

3–1

2.34%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Atletico-MG 3 wins · 2 draws · Botafogo 5 wins · avg 1.7 goals · BTTS in 2 of 10

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
10 May 2026	Atletico-MG	1–1	Botafogo	Serie A
21 Sep 2025	Botafogo	1–0	Atletico-MG	Serie A
20 Apr 2025	Atletico-MG	1–0	Botafogo	Serie A
30 Nov 2024	Atletico-MG	1–3	Botafogo	CONMEBOL Libertadores
21 Nov 2024	Atletico-MG	0–0	Botafogo	Serie A
08 Jul 2024	Botafogo	3–0	Atletico-MG	Serie A
17 Sep 2023	Atletico-MG	1–0	Botafogo	Serie A
08 May 2023	Botafogo	2–0	Atletico-MG	Serie A
08 Nov 2022	Atletico-MG	0–2	Botafogo	Serie A
18 Jul 2022	Botafogo	0–1	Atletico-MG	Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Botafogo

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
29/10	Remo	Away	1–2	L
24/10	Internacional	Away	0–3	L
18/10	Chapecoense-sc	Home	1–0	W
12/10	Coritiba	Away	1–1	D
08/10	Vasco DA Gama	Home	1–2	L
19/09	Mirassol	Away	0–2	L
17/09	Gremio	Home	3–2	W
13/09	RB Bragantino	Home	1–1	D
07/09	Palmeiras	Home	0–0	D
30/08	Flamengo	Away	0–3	L

Atletico-MG

Date	Opponent	Venue	Score	Result
30/10	Cruzeiro	Home	0–1	L
27/10	Flamengo	Away	2–3	L
22/10	Atletico Torque	Away	0–2	L
18/10	Coritiba	Home	1–0	W
15/10	Atletico Torque	Home	3–0	W
11/10	Santos	Home	2–1	W
09/10	Atletico Paranaense	Away	2–2	D
04/10	RB Bragantino	Home	1–0	W
19/09	Chapecoense-sc	Home	1–1	D
12/09	Fluminense	Home	3–1	W

📊 Season Comparison: Serie A

Botafogo #12 · 39 pts · Atletico-MG #7 · 50 pts

Botafogo

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–9D–14L

W 10

D 9

L 14

Played33

Goals scored (avg)1.40

Goals conceded (avg)1.60

Clean sheets5

Failed to score8

Yellow cards84

Red cards4

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.90

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.15

Corners for (avg)5.60

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

Atletico-MG

Wins–Draws–Losses14W–8D–11L

W 14

D 8

L 11

Played33

Goals scored (avg)1.30

Goals conceded (avg)1.20

Clean sheets8

Failed to score10

Yellow cards56

Red cards4

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.62

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.16

Corners for (avg)7.20

Penalties (scored/missed)2/0

BotafogoAtletico-MG

W 10

D 9

L 14

W 14

D 8

L 11

Played

Goals scored (avg)

1.40

1.30

Goals conceded (avg)

1.60

1.20

Clean sheets

Failed to score

Yellow cards

Red cards

xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)

0.90

1.62

xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)

1.15

1.16

Corners for (avg)

5.60

7.20

Penalties (scored/missed)

2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Botafogo

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Atletico-MG

0-15

16-30

31-45

46-60

61-75

76-90

scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Botafogo

❌ Marcal: Knee Injury
❌ S. Rodriguez: Injury
❌ Allan: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ A. Barboza: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ C. Medina: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ Newton: Shoulder Injury
❌ Danilo: International duty
❌ N. Ferraresi: International duty
❌ Alex Telles: Injury
❌ Nathan Fernandes: Injury
❌ Junior Santos: Injury
❌ Vitinho: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Matheus Martins: Injury
❌ Arthur Cabral: Injury
❌ A. Montoro: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Huguinho: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ J. Barrera: Injury
❌ G. Justino: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Paulinho: Injury
❌ Warleson: Injury
❌ K. Barria: Suspended (Yellow Cards)

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): J. Correa, C. Ramos, Bastos, Kaio Pantaleao, M. Ponte, L. M. Villalba Jaume, Arthur Chaves, L. Monzon; not counted as confirmed absences.

Atletico-MG

❌ Lyanco: Achilles Tendon Injury
❌ A. Preciado: Ankle Injury
❌ Alexsander: Injury
❌ M. Cisse: Leg Injury
❌ Maycon: Calf Injury
❌ Natanael: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ Ruan Tressoldi: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Patrick Silva: Injury
❌ Indio: Knee Injury
❌ R. Lodi: Suspended (Red Card)
❌ Cuello: Injury
❌ A. Franco: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
❌ Victor Hugo: Hamstring Injury
❌ Gustavo Scarpa: Knee Injury
❌ J. Alonso: International duty
❌ L. Duarte: Hamstring Injury
❌ Igor Gomes: Knee Injury
❌ T. Borbas: Muscle Injury
❌ Everson: Foot Injury
❌ T. Perez: Injury
❌ Reinier: Muscle Injury
❌ K. Castano: International duty
❌ K. Pascini: International duty
❌ Vitao: International duty
❌ Fred: Injury

Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): M. Cassierra (Lacking Match Fitness).

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): I. Roman, Rony, Junior Santos, Vitor Hugo, A. Minda, Hulk; not counted as confirmed absences.

More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

Referee: L. Casagrande

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