Predictions → Brazil Serie A

Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Thu, 19 Nov 2026 • 02:30 UTC+3 • Round 35 • Estádio do Maracanã

No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 10:09 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Home Current price not available58% —
Double Chance 1X Current price not available82.1% —
BTTS No Current price not available45.9% · Yes 54.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Current price not available45.1% · Over 54.9% —
Correct Score 2-0 Current price not available10.2% —
Corners O/U 9.5 (~10 exp.) Over 9.5 Current price not available53.8% · Under 46.2% —

🧠 Match Preview

Flamengo · Home

Flamengo are unbeaten across their last five with 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 10 and conceding 3, including a 4-1 win at Vasco DA Gama and a 3-2 home win over Atletico-MG. Their recent xG for of 0.92 sits well below the model expected goals of 1.91 for this fixture.

Atletico Paranaense · Away

Atletico Paranaense have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last five, failing to score in 2 of those matches, including 0-2 defeats away to Gremio and at home to Palmeiras. Their recent xG for of 1.77 is notably higher than the model expected goals of 0.98 here.

Flamengo edge recent H2H

The latest head-to-head, on 17 May 2026, finished 1-1 at Atletico Paranaense, while the previous meeting in this venue ended 1-0 to Flamengo. Flamengo's recent record of 3 clean sheets in 5 matches supports a low-scoring home edge, and the model's 2-0 correct score fits that pattern. Atletico Paranaense failed to score in 2 of their last 5, which makes a home win realistic rather than certain. The evidence supports Flamengo win.

Published 31 Oct 2026 10:46 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Flamengo 1.91 – 0.98 Atletico Paranaense · expected total 2.88

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Flamengo

Form (last 5)
WWDWD
Goals scored (season avg)2.10
Goals conceded (season avg)0.80
Best league winning streak this season5
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.92
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.31
Elo strength rating1808
Players out13

Atletico Paranaense

Form (last 5)
LDLWD
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Best league winning streak this season4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.77
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.90
Elo strength rating1413
Players out18
FlamengoAtletico Paranaense
WWDWD
Goals scored (season avg)
2.10
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.80
1.20
Best league winning streak this season
5
4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
0.92
1.77
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.31
1.90
Elo strength rating
1808
1413
Players out
13
18

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Flamengo

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 10
BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
4/6

Atletico Paranaense

Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A

Flamengo

Best attack (2.10 goals/game, season) 2nd best defence (0.80 conceded/game, season) 2nd best clean sheets (14, season)

Atletico Paranaense

3rd best defence (1.20 conceded/game, season) 3rd best BTTS rate (67%, last 6)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Flamengo at home · Atletico Paranaense away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Flamengo (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses12W–3D–1L
W 12
D 3
L 1
Played16
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets8
Failed to score1

Atletico Paranaense (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–4D–7L
W 6
D 4
L 7
Played17
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets3
Failed to score5
Flamengo (home)Atletico Paranaense (away)
W 12
D 3
L 1
W 6
D 4
L 7
Played
16
17
Goals scored (avg)
2.00
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.50
Clean sheets
8
3
Failed to score
1
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

2–0
10.21%
2–1
9.97%
1–0
9.66%
3–0
6.49%
3–1
6.34%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Atletico Paranaense 2 wins · 2 draws · Flamengo 6 wins · avg 2.3 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10

2
2
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
18 May 2026 Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo Serie A
30 Sep 2024 Flamengo 1–0 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
16 Jun 2024 Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo Serie A
14 Sep 2023 Flamengo 0–3 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
13 Jul 2023 Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Flamengo Copa Do Brasil
06 Jul 2023 Flamengo 2–1 Atletico Paranaense Copa Do Brasil
07 May 2023 Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Flamengo Serie A
29 Oct 2022 Flamengo 1–0 Atletico Paranaense CONMEBOL Libertadores
18 Aug 2022 Atletico Paranaense 0–1 Flamengo Copa Do Brasil
14 Aug 2022 Flamengo 5–0 Atletico Paranaense Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Flamengo

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
30/10 Vasco DA Gama Away 4–1 W
27/10 Atletico-MG Home 3–2 W
23/10 Estudiantes L.P. Home 0–0 D
19/10 Bahia Away 3–0 W
16/10 Estudiantes L.P. Away 0–0 D
11/10 Fluminense Home 1–0 W
09/10 Santos Away 2–2 D
21/09 RB Bragantino Home 2–1 W
18/09 Independiente del Valle Home 1–1 D
13/09 Corinthians Home 2–1 W

Atletico Paranaense

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
30/10 Gremio Away 0–2 L
24/10 Vitoria Away 1–1 D
18/10 Palmeiras Home 0–2 L
13/10 Chapecoense-sc Away 4–1 W
09/10 Atletico-MG Home 2–2 D
21/09 Bahia Home 2–1 W
12/09 Coritiba Away 3–3 D
06/09 Cruzeiro Away 1–3 L
30/08 Fluminense Home 3–3 D
25/08 Botafogo Away 3–2 W

📊 Season Comparison: Serie A

Flamengo #1 · 73 pts ·  Atletico Paranaense #5 · 54 pts

Flamengo

Wins–Draws–Losses22W–7D–4L
W 22
D 7
L 4
Played33
Goals scored (avg)2.10
Goals conceded (avg)0.80
Clean sheets14
Failed to score2
Yellow cards70
Red cards7
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.92
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.31
Corners for (avg)4.00
Penalties (scored/missed)5/0

Atletico Paranaense

Wins–Draws–Losses15W–9D–9L
W 15
D 9
L 9
Played33
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets8
Failed to score8
Yellow cards67
Red cards2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.77
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.90
Corners for (avg)6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)5/1
FlamengoAtletico Paranaense
W 22
D 7
L 4
W 15
D 9
L 9
Played
33
33
Goals scored (avg)
2.10
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
0.80
1.20
Clean sheets
14
8
Failed to score
2
8
Yellow cards
70
67
Red cards
7
2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
0.92
1.77
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.31
1.90
Corners for (avg)
4.00
6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)
5/0
5/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Flamengo

3
0-15
13
3
16-30
5
4
31-45
10
6
46-60
13
3
61-75
12
9
76-90
15
scored conceded

Atletico Paranaense

7
0-15
13
9
16-30
5
8
31-45
7
2
46-60
8
4
61-75
4
11
76-90
12
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Flamengo

  • ❌ Jorginho: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ G. Varela: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Leo Pereira: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ G. Plata: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ E. Pulgar: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Alex Sandro: Injury
  • ❌ Evertton Araujo: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ J. Carrascal: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ G. de Arrascaeta: Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ Leo Ortiz: Injury
  • ❌ Vitao: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Samuel Lino: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Ayrton Lucas: Thigh Injury
  • ❓ Daniel Thuram (doubtful): Injury
  • ❓ Ryan Roberto (doubtful): Injury

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Danilo, Lucas Paqueta, Luiz Araujo, S. Niguez, N. de la Cruz, Bruno Henrique, Everton, J. Freitas, A. Valencia; not counted as confirmed absences.

Atletico Paranaense

  • ❌ Renan Peixoto: Injury
  • ❌ C. Teran: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ B. Zapelli: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Bruninho: International duty
  • ❌ Arthur Dias: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Chiqueti: Illness
  • ❌ Julimar: Injury
  • ❌ Jadson: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ L. Esquivel: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ K. Viveros: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ J. Portilla: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Leo Derik: Injury
  • ❌ Dantas: Suspended (Suspended)
  • ❌ Claudinho: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Santos: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Gilberto: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Joao Cruz: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ F. Aguirre: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❓ Renan Viana (doubtful): Inactive

Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): Gilberto Junior (Loan agreement).

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Felipinho, Luiz Gustavo, A. Garcia Castillo, Isaac, G. Benavidez, Mycael, K. A. Calderon Vargas; not counted as confirmed absences.

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