Predictions → Brazil Serie A

Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama

This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.

Next match: Thu, 05 Nov 2026 • 01:30 UTC+3 • Round 34 • Arena da Baixada • ☁️ 21.7°C, 10 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
BTTS: No
Model probability 57.2% · Market implied at best price ≈ 44.4% · EV at shown price +28.7%
Best odds 2.25 · Betano William Hill 2.20Bet365 2.20

Snapshotted at publish: No at 2.09 (54.6%, Model EV +14.1%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.

Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3

MarketTipOddsProbabilityModel EV
Match Result (1X2) Home 2.16 → 2.25 ▲4% Betano2.2544.9% +1%
Double Chance 1X Betano1.3972.8% +1.2%
BTTS No Betano2.2557.2% · Yes 42.8% +28.7%
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Betano2.1051.5% · Over 48.5% +8.2%
Correct Score 1-0 Bet3659.5013.8% +31.1%
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.3 exp.) Over 9.5 1xBet1.6067.8% · Under 32.2% +8.5%

🧠 Match Preview

Atletico Paranaense · Home

Atletico Paranaense have scored 7 goals across their last five matches, including 4-1 at Chapecoense-sc and 2-2 at home to Atletico-MG, though they failed to score in two of those games. Their recent xG for of 1.77 over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics sits above their model expected goals of 1.27 for this fixture.

Vasco DA Gama · Away

Vasco DA Gama have lost three of their last five, conceding 10 goals, and failed to score in the 0-1 defeat at Sao Paulo. Their recent xG for of 1.46 over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics is well above their model expected goals of 0.86 here.

Vasco's Away Scoring Concern

The latest H2H, on 10 May 2026, finished 1-0 to Vasco DA Gama at home, and the two 2024 meetings also went Vasco's way at 2-1. Yet Vasco's away record in the supplied run is mixed: a 1-0 win at Boca Juniors but a 0-1 loss at Sao Paulo, with 6 goals scored and 10 conceded overall in five matches. Atletico Paranaense's 7 goals in five, including the 4-1 at Chapecoense-sc, give the home side a realistic route to the win. The evidence supports Atletico Paranaense win.

Published 02 Nov 2026 04:48 UTC+3. This preview is preserved from the previous data snapshot. Analysis and numbers reflect that publication; current model predictions are shown in the table above.

⚽ Current model expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.27 – 0.86 Vasco DA Gama · expected total 2.13

🔑 What Drives the Prediction

Atletico Paranaense

Form (last 5)
LDLWD
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Best league winning streak this season4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.77
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.90
Elo strength rating1413
Players out18

Vasco DA Gama

Form (last 5)
LWLLW
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Best league winning streak this season4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.46
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.76
Elo strength rating1483
Players out11
Atletico ParanaenseVasco DA Gama
LWLLW
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.20
1.50
Best league winning streak this season
4
4
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.77
1.46
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.90
0.76
Elo strength rating
1413
1483
Players out
18
11

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

📈 Team Trends

Atletico Paranaense

Winless 3
BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
0/6

Vasco DA Gama

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored a goal
4/6
No goals conceded
2/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

🏅 League Benchmarks: Serie A

Atletico Paranaense

3rd best defence (1.20 conceded/game, season) 3rd best BTTS rate (67%, last 6)

Vasco DA Gama

No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Atletico Paranaense at home · Vasco DA Gama away, the split that matters for this fixture.

Atletico Paranaense (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses9W–5D–2L
W 9
D 5
L 2
Played16
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.90
Clean sheets5
Failed to score3

Vasco DA Gama (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–5D–8L
W 2
D 5
L 8
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.70
Clean sheets1
Failed to score5
Atletico Paranaense (home)Vasco DA Gama (away)
W 9
D 5
L 2
W 2
D 5
L 8
Played
16
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
0.90
1.70
Clean sheets
5
1
Failed to score
3
5

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome

1–0
13.78%
2–0
9.58%
2–1
8.25%
3–0
4.06%
3–1
3.5%

Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Atletico Paranaense 3 wins · 2 draws · Vasco DA Gama 4 wins · avg 1.8 goals · BTTS in 3 of 9

3
2
4
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
11 May 2026 Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
30 Aug 2024 Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Atletico Paranaense Copa Do Brasil
27 Aug 2024 Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
05 May 2024 Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Vasco DA Gama Serie A
26 Nov 2023 Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Vasco DA Gama Serie A
24 Jul 2023 Vasco DA Gama 0–2 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
28 Dec 2020 Atletico Paranaense 3–0 Vasco DA Gama Serie A
07 Sep 2020 Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense Serie A
22 Sep 2019 Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Atletico Paranaense Serie A

📈 Recent Form

Atletico Paranaense

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
30/10 Gremio Away 0–2 L
24/10 Vitoria Away 1–1 D
18/10 Palmeiras Home 0–2 L
13/10 Chapecoense-sc Away 4–1 W
09/10 Atletico-MG Home 2–2 D
21/09 Bahia Home 2–1 W
12/09 Coritiba Away 3–3 D
06/09 Cruzeiro Away 1–3 L
30/08 Fluminense Home 3–3 D
25/08 Botafogo Away 3–2 W

Vasco DA Gama

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
30/10 Flamengo Home 1–4 L
25/10 Corinthians Home 3–2 W
21/10 Boca Juniors Home 1–3 L
18/10 Sao Paulo Away 0–1 L
14/10 Boca Juniors Away 1–0 W
11/10 Remo Home 0–0 D
08/10 Botafogo Away 2–1 W
20/09 Coritiba Home 5–0 W
16/09 Santa Fe Home 2–0 W
12/09 Gremio Away 2–1 W

📊 Season Comparison: Serie A

Atletico Paranaense #5 · 54 pts ·  Vasco DA Gama #13 · 38 pts

Atletico Paranaense

Wins–Draws–Losses15W–9D–9L
W 15
D 9
L 9
Played33
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets8
Failed to score8
Yellow cards67
Red cards2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.77
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.90
Corners for (avg)6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)5/1

Vasco DA Gama

Wins–Draws–Losses10W–8D–14L
W 10
D 8
L 14
Played32
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets4
Failed to score10
Yellow cards60
Red cards2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)1.46
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)0.76
Corners for (avg)6.60
Penalties (scored/missed)2/0
Atletico ParanaenseVasco DA Gama
W 15
D 9
L 9
W 10
D 8
L 14
Played
33
32
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
1.20
1.50
Clean sheets
8
4
Failed to score
8
10
Yellow cards
67
60
Red cards
2
2
xG for (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.77
1.46
xG against (last 5 with stats, weighted)
1.90
0.76
Corners for (avg)
6.30
6.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
5/1
2/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Atletico Paranaense

7
0-15
13
9
16-30
5
8
31-45
7
2
46-60
8
4
61-75
4
11
76-90
12
scored conceded

Vasco DA Gama

5
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
7
31-45
7
11
46-60
8
9
61-75
6
10
76-90
15
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Atletico Paranaense

  • ❌ Renan Peixoto: Injury
  • ❌ C. Teran: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ B. Zapelli: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Bruninho: International duty
  • ❌ Arthur Dias: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Chiqueti: Illness
  • ❌ Julimar: Injury
  • ❌ Jadson: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ L. Esquivel: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ K. Viveros: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ J. Portilla: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Leo Derik: Injury
  • ❌ Dantas: Suspended (Suspended)
  • ❌ Claudinho: Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Santos: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Gilberto: Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Joao Cruz: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ F. Aguirre: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❓ Renan Viana (doubtful): Inactive

Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): Gilberto Junior (Loan agreement).

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Felipinho, Luiz Gustavo, A. Garcia Castillo, Isaac, G. Benavidez, Mycael, K. A. Calderon Vargas; not counted as confirmed absences.

Vasco DA Gama

  • ❌ Jair: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Mateus Carvalho: Knee Injury
  • ❌ Thiago Mendes: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Cauan Barros: Suspended (Red Card)
  • ❌ Andres Gomez: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ A. Saldivia: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ J. Rojas: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ N. Moreira: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Robert Renan: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Tche Tche: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
  • ❌ Bruno Duarte: Injury

⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): Brenner, M. Hinestroza, Paulo Henrique, Cuiabano, Hugo Moura, C. Cuesta, J. Rodriguez, C. Spinelli, Adson; not counted as confirmed absences.

More: Serie A predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws

Referee: R. Abatti