Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Santos vs Bahia

Next match: Sun, 25 Oct 2026 β€’ 00:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 32 β€’ Estadio Urbano Caldeira β€’ 🌦 20.6Β°C, 3 km/h, 0.9mm drizzle

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 78% 39.9% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 12 69% 69% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS Yes 81% 50.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 80% 47.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 1-0 63% 7.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.2 exp.) Over 9.5 65% 55.5% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Santos 1.47 – 1.17 Bahia Β· expected total 2.64

🧠 Match Preview

Santos host Bahia at the Estadio Urbano Caldeira in Round 32 of Serie A, with the visitors sitting fifth on 49 points and the hosts eighth on 42 from 30 games played. Bahia arrive with the higher league position, but the form lines tell a different story: Santos have gone LDWWW across their last five, while Bahia's WLLWW is patchier.

The model leans toward the home side, giving Santos a 39.9 percent win probability at a confidence of 78, with the double chance covering 12 at 69 percent. Both teams to score lands at 50.1 percent, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 47.5 percent, so this profiles as a game with genuine attacking intent but no overwhelming edge. The expected goals split is tight β€” 1.4747 for Santos against 1.1691 for Bahia β€” though recent xG actually favours the visitors, with Bahia posting 2.65 to Santos' 1.74. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 7.3 percent, with 2-1 and 2-0 close behind in the top-scores list. Corners look the standout angle: Over 9.5 is priced at 55.5 percent against an expected 11.2.

The obvious risk is team news. Both squads list enormous injury and doubt columns, and with so many names unavailable, the numbers above may not fully reflect who actually takes the pitch. Treat the home tip as a lean rather than a lock, and check confirmed lineups before staking.

Updated 15 Oct 2026, 16:10 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Santos

Form (last 5)
LAtletico-MG (A) 1–2 Β· 11/10/2026DFlamengo (H) 2–2 Β· 08/10/2026WSao Paulo (A) 2–1 Β· 02/10/2026WRemo (A) 2–1 Β· 19/09/2026WCruzeiro (H) 2–1 Β· 13/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.50
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)0.68
xG against (recent avg)0.60
Elo strength rating1537
Players out30

Bahia

Form (last 5)
WMirassol (H) 1–0 Β· 11/10/2026LPalmeiras (A) 0–1 Β· 09/10/2026LAtletico Paranaense (A) 1–2 Β· 20/09/2026WRemo (H) 2–1 Β· 14/09/2026WRB Bragantino (A) 3–2 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)4
xG for (recent avg)1.86
xG against (recent avg)0.96
Elo strength rating1596
Players out23
SantosBahia
Goals scored (season avg)
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.50
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
5
4
xG for (recent avg)
0.68
1.86
xG against (recent avg)
0.60
0.96
Elo strength rating
1537
1596
Players out
30
23

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Santos

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
5/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Bahia

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Santos

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) 2nd best Over 2.5 rate (83%)

Bahia

3rd best defence (1.20 conceded/game)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Santos at home Β· Bahia away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Santos (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–5D–4L
W 6
D 5
L 4
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets3
Failed to score2

Bahia (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses6W–4D–5L
W 6
D 4
L 5
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets4
Failed to score3
Santos (home)Bahia (away)
W 6
D 5
L 4
W 6
D 4
L 5
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.40
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.50
Clean sheets
3
4
Failed to score
2
3

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
7.3%
2–1
7.1%
2–0
6.1%
3–1
3.5%
3–0
3%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Bahia 3 wins Β· 4 draws Β· Santos 2 wins Β· avg 2.3 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 9

3
4
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
25 Apr 2026 Bahia 2–2 Santos Serie A
24 Aug 2025 Bahia 2–0 Santos Serie A
06 Apr 2025 Santos 2–2 Bahia Serie A
18 Sep 2023 Bahia 1–2 Santos Serie A
17 May 2023 Santos 0–0 Bahia Copa Do Brasil
10 May 2023 Santos 3–0 Bahia Serie A
12 Sep 2021 Santos 0–0 Bahia Serie A
29 May 2021 Bahia 3–0 Santos Serie A
26 Feb 2021 Bahia 2–0 Santos Serie A

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Santos

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Atletico-MG Away 1–2 L
08/10 Flamengo Home 2–2 D
02/10 Sao Paulo Away 2–1 W
19/09 Remo Away 2–1 W
13/09 Cruzeiro Home 2–1 W

Bahia

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Mirassol Home 1–0 W
09/10 Palmeiras Away 0–1 L
20/09 Atletico Paranaense Away 1–2 L
14/09 Remo Home 2–1 W
05/09 RB Bragantino Away 3–2 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Santos #8 Β· 42 pts β€”  Bahia #5 Β· 49 pts

Santos

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–9D–10L
W 11
D 9
L 10
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.50
Clean sheets6
Failed to score3
Yellow cards93
Red cards4
xG for (avg)0.68
xG against (avg)0.60
Corners for (avg)6.30
Penalties (scored/missed)8/0

Bahia

Wins–Draws–Losses13W–10D–7L
W 13
D 10
L 7
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.50
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets9
Failed to score4
Yellow cards69
Red cards2
xG for (avg)1.86
xG against (avg)0.96
Corners for (avg)5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)8/3
SantosBahia
W 11
D 9
L 10
W 13
D 10
L 7
Played
30
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded (avg)
1.50
1.20
Clean sheets
6
9
Failed to score
3
4
Yellow cards
93
69
Red cards
4
2
xG for (avg)
0.68
1.86
xG against (avg)
0.60
0.96
Corners for (avg)
6.30
5.40
Penalties (scored/missed)
8/0
8/3

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Santos

3
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
8
31-45
6
5
46-60
13
8
61-75
6
14
76-90
12
scored conceded

Bahia

5
0-15
4
8
16-30
7
4
31-45
9
9
46-60
8
6
61-75
5
4
76-90
11
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Santos

  • ❌ A. Frias β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Mayke β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Neymar β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Thaciano β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Tiquinho Soares β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Willian Arao β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gustavo Henrique β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ A. Duarte β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gabriel Barbosa β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Ze Rafael β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Luan Peres β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Vinicius Lira β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ L. Diaz β€” Loan agreement
  • ❌ Gabriel Menino β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Rodrigo Falcao β€” Injury
  • ❌ Igor Vinicius β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Rony β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Barreal β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Escobar β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ T. Rincon β€” Health problems
  • ❌ Gabriel Brazao β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Joao Schmidt β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ B. Rollheiser β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Moises β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Verissimo β€” Calf Injury
  • ❌ Pepe Fermino β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Gabriel Bontempo β€” Injury
  • ❌ Coutinho β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ Everton β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Arthur Melo β€” Muscle Injury

Bahia

  • ❌ Ruan Pablo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Sanabria β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Michel Araujo β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Sidney Duarte β€” Injury
  • ❌ Dell β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Caio Alexandre β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Gilberto β€” Illness
  • ❌ Kanu β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Nicolas Acevedo β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Willian Jose β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Ronaldo Strada β€” Injury
  • ❌ S. Ramos β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Erick β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Luciano Juba β€” Injury
  • ❌ Rodrigo β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Leo Vieira β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Moreno β€” Lacking Match Fitness
  • ❌ C. Olivera β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Ze Guilherme β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Erick Pulga β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Ademir β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jean Lucas β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Everaldo β€” Red Card
  • ❓ David Duarte (doubtful) β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❓ Everton Ribeiro (doubtful) β€” Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws