Predictions β†’ Brazil Serie A

Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 21:30 UTC+3 β€’ Round 32 β€’ Arena Barueri β€’ ☁️ 17.5Β°C, 8 km/h overcast

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 90% 71.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance 1X 81% 85.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 81% 49.7% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 48.1% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 2-0 70% 11.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Corners O/U 9.5 (~12.4 exp.) Over 9.5 67% 57.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Palmeiras 1.92 – 0.68 RB Bragantino Β· expected total 2.61

🧠 Match Preview

Palmeiras sit second on 63 points from 30 games and welcome a Bragantino side ninth on 40, so the stakes are clear: the hosts are chasing the title, the visitors are drifting in mid-table. Form points the same way, with Palmeiras on a WWDWW run against Bragantino's WDLLD.

The model sees a lopsided contest. Palmeiras carry an expected goals figure of 1.9203 at home, while Bragantino manage just 0.6828 away, and the recent xG split (1.91 versus 1.32) reinforces the gap. The head-to-head record backs the favourite too, with Palmeiras winning three of the last five meetings, including a 5-1 rout and a 1-0 away win in April 2026.

The headline tip is a home win at 71.8 percent with confidence of 90, and the double chance 1X sits at 85.8 percent for anyone wanting a safer route. Both teams to score is leaned No at 49.7 percent, while Under 2.5 goals edges it at 48.1 percent. The most likely correct score is 2-0 at 13.7 percent, followed by 1-0 at 13.3 and 2-1 at 9.36. Corners look interesting: the model expects 12.4 and gives Over 9.5 a 57.8 percent chance.

Value may hide in the goals markets rather than the outright, since the home win price is unlikely to offer much. The honest caveat is the injury list β€” both squads are heavily depleted, and with so many absentees, the clean-sheet assumptions behind that 2-0 scoreline carry real risk.

Updated 15 Oct 2026, 10:11 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Palmeiras

Form (last 5)
WCorinthians (H) 4–1 Β· 11/10/2026WBahia (H) 1–0 Β· 09/10/2026DGremio (A) 0–0 Β· 20/09/2026WSao Paulo (H) 2–0 Β· 12/09/2026WLDU de Quito (H) 1–0 Β· 09/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.70
Goals conceded (season avg)0.70
Win streak (best this season)5
xG for (recent avg)0.75
xG against (recent avg)0.47
Elo strength rating1728
Players out24

RB Bragantino

Form (last 5)
WCruzeiro (H) 4–2 Β· 13/10/2026DMirassol (H) 1–1 Β· 07/10/2026LAtletico-MG (A) 0–1 Β· 03/10/2026LFlamengo (A) 1–2 Β· 20/09/2026DBotafogo (A) 1–1 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)1.20
Win streak (best this season)3
xG for (recent avg)0.92
xG against (recent avg)1.07
Elo strength rating1512
Players out26
PalmeirasRB Bragantino
Goals scored (season avg)
1.70
1.30
Goals conceded (season avg)
0.70
1.20
Win streak (best this season)
5
3
xG for (recent avg)
0.75
0.92
xG against (recent avg)
0.47
1.07
Elo strength rating
1728
1512
Players out
24
26

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Palmeiras

Won 2 in a row Unbeaten 10
BTTS
1/6
Over 2.5
1/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
5/6

RB Bragantino

BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
5/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Serie A

Palmeiras

2nd best attack (1.70 goals/game) Best defence (0.70 conceded/game) Worst BTTS rate (17%) Worst Over 2.5 rate (17%) Best clean sheets (13)

RB Bragantino

3rd best defence (1.20 conceded/game) 2nd best BTTS rate (83%)

Rank among 20 Serie A teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Palmeiras at home Β· RB Bragantino away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Palmeiras (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–3D–1L
W 11
D 3
L 1
Played15
Goals scored (avg)1.90
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets6
Failed to score1

RB Bragantino (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses4W–4D–7L
W 4
D 4
L 7
Played15
Goals scored (avg)0.90
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets3
Failed to score4
Palmeiras (home)RB Bragantino (away)
W 11
D 3
L 1
W 4
D 4
L 7
Played
15
15
Goals scored (avg)
1.90
0.90
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
1.20
Clean sheets
6
3
Failed to score
1
4

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

2–0
11.2%
1–0
10.8%
2–1
7.7%
3–0
7.2%
3–1
4.9%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Palmeiras 6 wins Β· 3 draws Β· RB Bragantino 1 win Β· avg 2.1 goals Β· BTTS in 5 of 10

6
3
1
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
26 Apr 2026 RB Bragantino 0–1 Palmeiras Serie A
15 Oct 2025 Palmeiras 5–1 RB Bragantino Serie A
18 May 2025 RB Bragantino 1–2 Palmeiras Serie A
28 Jan 2025 Palmeiras 0–0 RB Bragantino Paulista - A1
05 Oct 2024 RB Bragantino 0–0 Palmeiras Serie A
21 Jun 2024 Palmeiras 2–1 RB Bragantino Serie A
31 Jan 2024 RB Bragantino 0–1 Palmeiras Paulista - A1
01 Oct 2023 RB Bragantino 2–1 Palmeiras Serie A
13 May 2023 Palmeiras 1–1 RB Bragantino Serie A
23 Feb 2023 Palmeiras 2–0 RB Bragantino Paulista - A1

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Palmeiras

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Corinthians Home 4–1 W
09/10 Bahia Home 1–0 W
20/09 Gremio Away 0–0 D
12/09 Sao Paulo Home 2–0 W
09/09 LDU de Quito Home 1–0 W

RB Bragantino

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
13/10 Cruzeiro Home 4–2 W
07/10 Mirassol Home 1–1 D
03/10 Atletico-MG Away 0–1 L
20/09 Flamengo Away 1–2 L
12/09 Botafogo Away 1–1 D

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Serie A

Palmeiras #2 Β· 63 pts β€”  RB Bragantino #9 Β· 40 pts

Palmeiras

Wins–Draws–Losses18W–9D–3L
W 18
D 9
L 3
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.70
Goals conceded (avg)0.70
Clean sheets13
Failed to score4
Yellow cards68
Red cards5
xG for (avg)0.75
xG against (avg)0.47
Corners for (avg)8.20
Penalties (scored/missed)2/1

RB Bragantino

Wins–Draws–Losses11W–7D–12L
W 11
D 7
L 12
Played30
Goals scored (avg)1.30
Goals conceded (avg)1.20
Clean sheets8
Failed to score7
Yellow cards79
Red cards5
xG for (avg)0.92
xG against (avg)1.07
Corners for (avg)6.10
Penalties (scored/missed)2/3
PalmeirasRB Bragantino
W 18
D 9
L 3
W 11
D 7
L 12
Played
30
30
Goals scored (avg)
1.70
1.30
Goals conceded (avg)
0.70
1.20
Clean sheets
13
8
Failed to score
4
7
Yellow cards
68
79
Red cards
5
5
xG for (avg)
0.75
0.92
xG against (avg)
0.47
1.07
Corners for (avg)
8.20
6.10
Penalties (scored/missed)
2/1
2/3

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Palmeiras

2
0-15
8
1
16-30
10
5
31-45
6
7
46-60
10
3
61-75
9
6
76-90
7
scored conceded

RB Bragantino

4
0-15
4
8
16-30
5
5
31-45
7
10
46-60
8
6
61-75
3
7
76-90
6
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Palmeiras

  • ❌ Felipe Anderson β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Figueiredo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Lucas Evangelista β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Paulinho β€” Leg Injury
  • ❌ J. Arias β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Mauricio β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Murilo β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Vitor Roque β€” Inactive
  • ❌ J. Piquerez β€” Injury
  • ❌ Jefte β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Marlon Freitas β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Allan Elias β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Benedetti β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Bruno Fuchs β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ R. Sosa β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Andreas Pereira β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Carlos Miguel β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Giay β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ G. Gomez β€” International duty
  • ❌ J. Lopez β€” International duty
  • ❌ E. Martinez β€” International duty
  • ❌ A. Barboza β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Khellven β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Arthur Gabriel β€” Red Card

RB Bragantino

  • ❌ Jhon Jhon β€” Inactive
  • ❌ I. Pitta β€” Inactive
  • ❌ G. Rodriguez β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ Vanderlan β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Alix Vinicius β€” Injury
  • ❌ Eduardo Sasha β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Fabricio β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Gabriel β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Gustavo Marques β€” Suspended
  • ❌ A. Sant'Anna β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Fabinho β€” Red Card
  • ❌ Fernando Santos β€” Ankle Injury
  • ❌ Juninho Capixaba β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Lucas Barbosa β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Davi Gomes β€” Inactive
  • ❌ I. Sosa β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ J. Herrera β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ Eduardo Santos β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ H. Mosquera β€” Inactive
  • ❌ R. Tavares β€” Inactive
  • ❌ Matheus Fernandes β€” Hamstring Injury
  • ❌ Pedro Henrique β€” Yellow Cards
  • ❌ A. Hurtado β€” International duty
  • ❌ Bruninho β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Caue Nascimento β€” Muscle Injury
  • ❌ Wallace Yan β€” Red Card
  • ❓ Rodriguinho (doubtful) β€” Injury

More: Serie A predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws