West Brom vs Southampton
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Tue, 03 Nov 2026 • 23:00 UTC+3 • Round 14 • The Hawthorns • ☀️ 8.3°C, 13 km/h clear
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw 3.75 → 3.65 ▼3% | Betano3.65 | 25.7% | -6.2% |
| Double Chance | 1X | Bet3651.50 | 64.7% | -3% |
| BTTS | Yes | William Hill1.55 | 65% · No 35% | +0.8% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | Betano2.22 | 41.7% · Over 58.3% | -7.4% |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | Betano7.40 | 11.4% | -15.6% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Pinnacle1.62 | 52.3% · Under 47.7% | -15.3% |
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🧠 Match Preview
West Brom · Home
West Brom won three of their last five, including 3-1 at West Ham and 3-2 at home to Blackburn, but lost 0-1 at home to Birmingham and failed to score in that match. Their recent xG for over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics is 0.94, well below the model expected goals of 1.64 for this fixture.
Southampton · Away
Southampton are unbeaten in five with four wins, beating QPR 4-1 and West Ham 3-2, and kept three clean sheets. Their recent xG for over up to five recent matches with recorded statistics is 1.78 against a model expected goals of 1.58.
Draw fits tight H2H pattern
The latest head-to-head finished 1-1 at West Brom, and the two meetings before that were decided by a single goal, so a repeat draw is realistic. Southampton's three clean sheets in five show why West Brom's low recent xG of 0.94 may not translate into a home win. West Brom's own three wins in five keep a home result live, which supports the draw as the primary pick rather than a clear away edge. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:47 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: West Brom 1.64 – 1.58 Southampton · expected total 3.22
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
West Brom
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
West Brom
Southampton
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Championship
West Brom
Southampton
Rank among 24 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
West Brom at home · Southampton away, the split that matters for this fixture.
West Brom (home)
Southampton (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Southampton 7 wins · 2 draws · West Brom 1 win · avg 2.9 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2026 | West Brom | 1–1 | Southampton | Championship |
| 09 Dec 2025 | Southampton | 3–2 | West Brom | Championship |
| 17 May 2024 | Southampton | 3–1 | West Brom | Championship |
| 12 May 2024 | West Brom | 0–0 | Southampton | Championship |
| 16 Feb 2024 | West Brom | 0–2 | Southampton | Championship |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Southampton | 2–1 | West Brom | Championship |
| 12 Apr 2021 | West Brom | 3–0 | Southampton | Premier League |
| 04 Oct 2020 | Southampton | 2–0 | West Brom | Premier League |
| 17 Feb 2018 | West Brom | 1–2 | Southampton | FA Cup |
| 03 Feb 2018 | West Brom | 2–3 | Southampton | Premier League |
📈 Recent Form
West Brom
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | West Ham | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 24/10 | Preston | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 17/10 | Blackburn | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 13/10 | Wrexham | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 10/10 | Birmingham | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 20/09 | Wolves | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 12/09 | QPR | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 09/09 | Derby | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Watford | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 02/09 | Charlton | Home | 1–1 | D |
Southampton
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | QPR | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 24/10 | West Ham | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 17/10 | Bolton | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 14/10 | Norwich | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 11/10 | Portsmouth | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Wrexham | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 12/09 | Bristol City | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 08/09 | Swansea | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 05/09 | Lincoln | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 01/09 | Birmingham | Away | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: Championship
West Brom #4 · 24 pts · Southampton #5 · 23 pts
West Brom
Southampton
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
West Brom
Southampton
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
West Brom
- ❌ M. Johnston: Broken Leg
- ❌ N. Galves: Knee Injury
- ❌ B. Pereira: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ T. Collyer: Injury
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): T. Bany; not counted as confirmed absences.
Southampton
- ❌ T. Harwood-Bellis: Injury
- ❌ C. Bragg: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ F. Downes: Ankle Injury
- ❌ C. Larin: Hamstring Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): C. Jander (Lacking Match Fitness).
More: Championship predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws
Referee: Josh Smith