Swindon Town vs Grimsby
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 14 Nov 2026 • 18:00 UTC+3 • Round 15 • County Ground • ☁️ 6.5°C, 18 km/h overcast
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 47.9% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 78.1% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 74.6% · No 25.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 75.9% · Under 24.1% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 8.2% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.3 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 62.3% · Under 37.7% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Swindon Town · Home
Swindon Town have taken 8 points from their last five matches, including a 2-1 home win over Rotherham and a 3-1 away win at Barnet. Their recent xG for of 1.25 sits well below the model expected goals of 2.24 for this fixture.
Grimsby · Away
Grimsby have scored 11 goals across their last five matches, with a 5-2 home win over York and a 4-1 away win at Gillingham. However, they failed to score in two of those five and have no clean sheet in the run.
Swindon's Home Edge
The latest head-to-head is a warning rather than a guide: Grimsby won 4-0 at home on 25 Apr 2026, yet Swindon won the prior meeting 4-0 and drew 2-2 in the other. Swindon's home form includes the 2-1 win over Rotherham, while Grimsby's away record mixes the 4-1 win at Gillingham with a 2-2 draw at Rochdale and a 0-1 loss at Port Vale. With the model expected goals at 2.24 for Swindon against 1.77 for Grimsby, a home win is realistic. The evidence supports Swindon Town win.
Published 01 Nov 2026 04:45 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Swindon Town 2.24 – 1.77 Grimsby · expected total 4.00
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Swindon Town
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Swindon Town
Grimsby
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: League Two
Swindon Town
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Grimsby
Rank among 24 League Two teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Swindon Town at home · Grimsby away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Swindon Town (home)
Grimsby (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Grimsby 2 wins · 1 draw · Swindon Town 7 wins · avg 3.6 goals · BTTS in 5 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Grimsby | 4–0 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Swindon Town | 2–2 | Grimsby | League Two |
| 18 Apr 2025 | Grimsby | 0–4 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Swindon Town | 3–1 | Grimsby | League Two |
| 20 Apr 2024 | Grimsby | 2–0 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 30 Sep 2023 | Swindon Town | 2–1 | Grimsby | League Two |
| 14 Jan 2023 | Swindon Town | 5–0 | Grimsby | League Two |
| 24 Sep 2022 | Grimsby | 1–2 | Swindon Town | League Two |
| 22 Feb 2020 | Swindon Town | 3–1 | Grimsby | League Two |
| 07 Dec 2019 | Grimsby | 0–3 | Swindon Town | League Two |
📈 Recent Form
Swindon Town
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Rotherham | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 24/10 | Bristol Rovers | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 20/10 | Barnet | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 17/10 | Walsall | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 10/10 | Crewe | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 03/10 | Rochdale | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 26/09 | Accrington ST | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 22/09 | Newport County | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 19/09 | Salford City | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 15/09 | Crystal Palace U21 | Home | 1–2 | L |
Grimsby
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | York | Home | 5–2 | W |
| 24/10 | Gillingham | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 20/10 | Rochdale | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 17/10 | Northampton | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 10/10 | Port Vale | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 03/10 | Shrewsbury | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 26/09 | Newport County | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 22/09 | Notts County | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 19/09 | Crawley Town | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Bristol Rovers | Home | 2–0 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: League Two
Swindon Town #13 · 19 pts · Grimsby #6 · 20 pts
Swindon Town
Grimsby
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Swindon Town
Grimsby
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: League Two predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws