Brighton vs Brentford
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 17:00 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Amex Stadium • ☀️ 8.7°C, 6 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: No at 2.45 (44.7%, Model EV +9.5%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 10:09 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 1xBet1.98 | 54.3% | +7.5% |
| Double Chance | 1X | 1xBet1.31 | 77.5% | +1.5% |
| BTTS | No | Betfair2.45 | 44.9% · Yes 55.1% | +10% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1xBet2.47 | 40.6% · Over 59.4% | +0.3% |
| Correct Score | 2-0 | Bet36512.00 | 10.3% | +23.6% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.9 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 53% · Under 47% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Brighton · Home
Brighton's recent record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss includes a 5-0 home win over Crystal Palace and a 1-0 away win at Manchester City. Their recent xG for of 2.85 across up to five recent matches with recorded statistics supports a home attack that the model expects to produce 2.04 goals.
Brentford · Away
Brentford have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last five, and their recent xG for of 0.94 is well below Brighton's figure. They did score in all five of those matches, including 2-2 at Aston Villa and 2-3 at Sunderland, so they carry some scoring threat.
Brighton edge recent H2H
The latest head-to-head was Brentford 0-2 Brighton on 21 Feb 2026, and Brighton also won the previous meeting 2-1 at home. Brentford's 4-2 win in April 2025 shows this fixture can swing, but Brighton's recent 5-0 home win over Crystal Palace and 1-0 win at Manchester City point to a stronger current level. With the model giving Brighton 54.3% and Brentford a recent xG for of just 0.94, a controlled home result is realistic. The evidence supports Brighton win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Brighton 2.04 – 0.97 Brentford · expected total 3.02
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Brighton
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Brighton
Brentford
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Premier League
Brighton
Brentford
Rank among 20 Premier League teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Brighton at home · Brentford away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Brighton (home)
Brentford (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Brentford 3 wins · 3 draws · Brighton 4 wins · avg 2.5 goals · BTTS in 4 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | Brentford | 0–2 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Brighton | 2–1 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Brentford | 4–2 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 27 Dec 2024 | Brighton | 0–0 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 03 Apr 2024 | Brentford | 0–0 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 06 Dec 2023 | Brighton | 2–1 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 27 Jul 2023 | Brentford | 0–2 | Brighton | Premier League - Summer Series |
| 01 Apr 2023 | Brighton | 3–3 | Brentford | Premier League |
| 14 Oct 2022 | Brentford | 2–0 | Brighton | Premier League |
| 26 Jul 2022 | Brighton | 0–1 | Brentford | Friendlies Clubs |
📈 Recent Form
Brighton
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Manchester City | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 28/10 | Manchester City | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 25/10 | Liverpool | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 22/10 | FK Jablonec | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 18/10 | Crystal Palace | Home | 5–0 | W |
| 15/10 | Kauno Žalgiris | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Sunderland | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 19/09 | Arsenal | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 16/09 | Manchester United | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 13/09 | Coventry | Away | 5–0 | W |
Brentford
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Nottingham Forest | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 28/10 | Sunderland | Away | 2–3 | L |
| 25/10 | Hull City | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 17/10 | Liverpool | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 10/10 | Aston Villa | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 18/09 | Chelsea | Home | 3–0 | W |
| 15/09 | Reading | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Bournemouth | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 05/09 | Sunderland | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 30/08 | Leeds | Away | 1–1 | D |
📊 Season Comparison: Premier League
Brighton #3 · 19 pts · Brentford #6 · 14 pts
Brighton
Brentford
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Brighton
Brentford
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Brighton
- ❌ C. Baleba: Ankle Injury
- ❌ E. Ferguson: Ankle Injury
- ❌ Y. Minteh: Injury
- ❌ K. Mitoma: Hamstring Injury
- ❌ M. O'Riley: Illness
- ❌ S. Tzimas: Knee Injury
- ❌ J. Hinshelwood: Injury
- ❌ M. Orozco: Injury
- ❌ F. Azeez: Abdominal strain
- ❌ G. Rutter: Injury
- ❌ M. Svoboda: Injury
- ❌ M. Wieffer: Knee Injury
- ❌ P. Struijk: Rest
- ❌ F. Kadioglu: Hip Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): Z. Yohanna (Lacking Match Fitness).
Brentford
- ❌ A. Milambo: Knee Injury
- ❌ S. van den Berg: Injury
- ❌ J. Dasilva: Injury
- ❌ M. Jensen: Muscle Injury
- ❌ N. Collins: Calf Injury
- ❌ K. Furo: Surgery
- ❌ M. Damsgaard: Ankle Injury
- ❌ J. Schuster: Ankle Injury
- ❌ F. Carvalho: Injury
- ❌ R. Henry: Hip Injury
- ❌ Y. Yarmolyuk: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ V. Janelt: Suspended (Red Card)
More: Premier League predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws