Lens vs Marseille
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 22:45 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Stade Bollaert-Delelis • ☁️ 7.6°C, 3 km/h overcast
Snapshotted at publish: Over 9.5 at 1.90 (58.0%, Model EV +10.2%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 1xBet2.12 | 47.2% | +0.1% |
| Double Chance | 12 | 1xBet1.27 | 76.5% | -2.8% |
| BTTS | Yes | William Hill1.44 | 63.5% · No 36.5% | -8.6% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Betano1.50 | 63.7% · Under 36.3% | -4.5% |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Betano9.50 | 9.3% | -11.7% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~10.6 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Betano1.90 | 58% · Under 42% | +10.2% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Lens · Home
Lens enter this fixture with a mixed recent record of 2 wins and 3 losses from 5 matches, failing to score in 3 of those games. Their most recent meeting with Marseille was a 3-1 away defeat on 24 Jan 2026, but they won the preceding home encounter 2-1 on 25 Oct 2025.
Marseille · Away
Marseille have scored 11 goals across their last 5 matches, including a 5-2 win at Angers and a 4-3 home victory over Le Havre. However, they failed to score in 2 of those 5 games and lost both of them 0-1.
Lens' home H2H edge
The latest head-to-head ended 3-1 to Marseille at home on 24 Jan 2026, but Lens won the previous meeting at home 2-1 on 25 Oct 2025 and also won 1-0 at Marseille on 8 Mar 2025. Lens' recent record shows 3 defeats in 5, yet their model expected goals of 1.78 sit above Marseille's 1.39 for this fixture. Marseille have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches but failed to score in 2 of them. The evidence supports Lens win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:51 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Lens 1.78 – 1.39 Marseille · expected total 3.18
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Lens
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Lens
Marseille
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Ligue 1
Lens
No top-3 or bottom-2 marks in the league right now.
Marseille
Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Lens at home · Marseille away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Lens (home)
Marseille (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Lens 6 wins · 0 draws · Marseille 4 wins · avg 2.7 goals · BTTS in 6 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2026 | Marseille | 3–1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Lens | 2–1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Marseille | 0–1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Lens | 1–3 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 28 Apr 2024 | Marseille | 2–1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 12 Nov 2023 | Lens | 1–0 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 06 May 2023 | Lens | 2–1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 22 Oct 2022 | Marseille | 0–1 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 22 Jan 2022 | Lens | 0–2 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 26 Sep 2021 | Marseille | 2–3 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
📈 Recent Form
Lens
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Lille | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 24/10 | Paris FC | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 21/10 | Club Brugge KV | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 17/10 | Estac Troyes | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 13/10 | Sporting CP | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 09/10 | Lyon | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 02/10 | Standard Liege | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 18/09 | Monaco | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 13/09 | Le Mans | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 10/09 | Slavia Praha | Away | 3–2 | W |
Marseille
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Toulouse | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 25/10 | Le Havre | Home | 4–3 | W |
| 22/10 | Sturm Graz | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 18/10 | Angers | Away | 5–2 | W |
| 15/10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 11/10 | Estac Troyes | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 20/09 | Paris Saint Germain | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 17/09 | Beşiktaş | Away | 1–4 | L |
| 11/09 | Rennes | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 06/09 | Paris FC | Home | 2–3 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Ligue 1
Lens #9 · 13 pts · Marseille #6 · 15 pts
Lens
Marseille
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Lens
Marseille
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Lens
- ❌ K. Antonio: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ S. Baidoo: Knee Injury
- ❌ N. Celik: Injury
- ❌ J. Chavez: Thigh Injury
- ❌ J. Gradit: Thigh Injury
- ❌ S. Abdulhamid: Contusion
- ❌ O. Edouard: Personal Reasons
- ❌ M. Nawrocki: Injury
- ❌ S. Sagnan: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ Y. Titraoui: Injury
- ❌ A. Sima: Muscle Injury
- ❌ M. Udol: Suspended (Red Card)
- ❌ I. Ganiou: Knee Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): T. Hazard (Coach's decision).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): J. Todibo; not counted as confirmed absences.
Marseille
- ❌ L. Balerdi: Calf Injury
- ❌ F. Moumbagna: Injury
- ❌ Q. Timber: Suspended (Yellow Cards)
- ❌ I. Paixao: Muscle Injury
- ❌ G. Kondogbia: Thigh Injury
- ❌ T. Nnadi: Knee Injury
- ❌ D. Cornelius: Hip Injury
- ❌ P. Hojbjerg: Muscle Injury
- ❌ T. Weah: Suspended (Red Card)
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): A. Koum Mbondo; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Ligue 1 predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws