Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 19:15 UTC+3 • Round 10 • Stade Francis-Le-Blé • ☀️ 3.7°C, 5 km/h clear
Snapshotted at publish: Under 9.5 at 2.02 (56.3%, Model EV +13.7%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw | 1xBet3.80 | 25.9% | -1.6% |
| Double Chance | X2 | 1xBet1.44 | 65.5% | -5.7% |
| BTTS | Yes | William Hill1.57 | 58% · No 42% | -8.9% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1xBet2.23 | 44.9% · Over 55.1% | +0.1% |
| Correct Score | 1-1 | Betano7.20 | 13% | -6.4% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8.7 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Betano2.02 | 56.3% · Over 43.7% | +13.7% |
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🧠 Match Preview
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
Brest have scored in all five recent matches, including a 5-1 win over Angers, but their 1-2 home loss to Nice shows they can concede at home. Their recent xG for of 2.07 is higher than Lyon's 1.73, yet the model expected goals of 1.49 is more modest.
Lyon · Away
Lyon won three of five recent matches, though both defeats came away from home, 0-2 at Paris Saint Germain and 0-3 at 1899 Hoffenheim. They failed to score in those two away losses, which tempers their away threat.
Brest-Lyon draws recur
The latest head-to-head, on 18 Jan 2026, finished 2-1 to Lyon, but the previous meeting in Brest ended 0-0. Brest have drawn two of their last five, and Lyon's away defeats show they do not always convert their threat. With the model expected goals at 1.49 for Brest and 1.32 for Lyon, a tight, low-scoring contest is plausible. The evidence supports Draw.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.49 – 1.32 Lyon · expected total 2.81
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Stade Brestois 29
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Stade Brestois 29
Lyon
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29
Lyon
Rank among 18 Ligue 1 teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Stade Brestois 29 at home · Lyon away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29 (home)
Lyon (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Lyon 4 wins · 3 draws · Stade Brestois 29 3 wins · avg 2.8 goals · BTTS in 7 of 10
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jan 2026 | Lyon | 2–1 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 02 Nov 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 | 0–0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 02 Mar 2025 | Lyon | 2–1 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 11 Jan 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 | 2–1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Lyon | 4–3 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 23 Sep 2023 | Stade Brestois 29 | 1–0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 01 Feb 2023 | Lyon | 0–0 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| 28 Dec 2022 | Stade Brestois 29 | 2–4 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 20 Apr 2022 | Stade Brestois 29 | 2–1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 07 Aug 2021 | Lyon | 1–1 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
📈 Recent Form
Stade Brestois 29
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Nice | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 17/10 | Lille | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 10/10 | Angers | Home | 5–1 | W |
| 03/10 | Monza | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 20/09 | Auxerre | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 13/09 | Paris Saint Germain | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 05/09 | Le Havre | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 29/08 | Toulouse | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 22/08 | Le Mans | Away | 2–2 | D |
| 16/08 | Nottingham Forest | Away | 0–2 | L |
Lyon
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Angers | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 26/10 | Paris Saint Germain | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 22/10 | 1899 Hoffenheim | Away | 0–3 | L |
| 18/10 | Nice | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 15/10 | Crystal Palace | Home | 3–2 | W |
| 09/10 | Lens | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 19/09 | Rennes | Home | 4–0 | W |
| 16/09 | Anderlecht | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 12/09 | Paris FC | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 04/09 | Auxerre | Home | 3–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Ligue 1
Stade Brestois 29 #14 · 9 pts · Lyon #3 · 17 pts
Stade Brestois 29
Lyon
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Stade Brestois 29
Lyon
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
🏥 Injuries & Suspensions
Stade Brestois 29
- ❌ B. Chardonnet: Calf Injury
- ❌ H. Magnetti: Muscle Injury
- ❌ J. Bourgault: Knee Injury
- ❌ R. Cagnon: Shoulder Injury
- ❌ M. Diambou: Ankle Injury
- ❌ M. Balde: Injury
- ❌ N. Edjouma: Muscle Injury
- ❌ R. Le Guen: Broken Leg
- ❌ G. Versini: Leg Injury
Lyon
- ❌ Abner Vinicius: Rest
- ❌ R. Kluivert: Rest
- ❌ A. Maitland-Niles: Rest
- ❌ K. Merah: Ankle Injury
- ❌ M. Niakhate: Ankle Injury
- ❌ J. Duranville: Muscle Injury
- ❌ N. Tagliafico: Muscle Injury
- ❌ L. Openda: Leg Injury
- ❌ P. Sulc: Knee Injury
- ❌ T. Morton: Groin Injury
Squad/transfer status (not counted as absences): K. Nakamura (Coach's decision).
⚠️ Status unconfirmed (listed inactive): R. Himbert, N. Kamara, A. Gomes Rodriguez, A. Hamdani, S. Kango, M. Ouedraogo, M. de Carvalho; not counted as confirmed absences.
More: Ligue 1 predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws