SC Freiburg vs Bayern München

Freiburg host Bayern on Sunday sitting top of the Bundesliga on 13 points from 5 games, with Bayern third on 11. The stakes are obvious: the league leaders can put real distance between themselves and the champions at the Europa-Park Stadion.

The model likes Freiburg's form line of WWDWW and their recent expected goals of 2.09, while Bayern arrive on DWWWD with a stronger recent xG of 2.48. Freiburg's season-long attacking output is rated at 2.2217 against Bayern's 1.712, which is why the home side gets the edge. Both squads are depleted: Freiburg are without F. Muslija, P. Osterhage, R. Yamamoto, B. Ogbus, B. Yilmaz and Y. Suzuki, with J. Beste doubtful, while Bayern miss T. Buchmann, S. Gnabry and J. Musiala. The head-to-head record is a warning, though — Bayern have won four of the last five meetings, including 2-3 and 6-2.

The headline tip is a Freiburg win at 48 percent with confidence of 81, and double chance 12 covers the draw at 75 percent. Both teams to score lands at 60.7 percent, over 2.5 goals at 64.5 percent, and over 9.5 corners at 55 percent with 10.9 expected. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 6.5 percent, with 3-1, 3-2, 2-0 and 1-0 behind it. Value likely hides in the goals markets rather than the outright result.

The honest caveat: no bookmaker odds were supplied, so the model probability cannot be checked against the market, and that 48 percent home win sits uncomfortably against a Bayern side that has dominated this fixture.