Predictions β†’ Netherlands Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs Excelsior

Next match: Fri, 16 Oct 2026 β€’ 18:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 9 β€’ Abe Lenstra Stadion β€’ ☁️ 13.4Β°C, 23 km/h overcast

PREDICTLIX BEST BET
Over/Under 2.5 β€” Under 2.5
Model 47.1% Β· Market best price β‰ˆ 36% Β· Edge +12.1 pp
Best odds 2.78 Pinnacle 2.78BetVictor 2.75Bet365 2.70
Bet this pick β†’
ΒΌ Kelly sizing: 4.3% of bank

Snapshotted at publish: pick + best price. Prices move constantly β€” confirm at the bookmaker. 18+, gamble responsibly.

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Home 1.78 β†’ 1.71 β–Ό4% 84% 56.9% 1.71 1xBet 59.5% -2.6 pp
Double Chance 1X 71% 71% 1.21 Betano 81.1% -10.1 pp
BTTS No 80% 48.1% 2.62 William Hill 36.4% +11.7 pp
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 80% 47.1% 2.78 Pinnacle 35% +12.1 pp
Correct Score 1-0 67% 9.5% 11.25 Marathonbet 4.6% +4.9 pp
Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.7 exp.) Over 9.5 61% 52.5% 1.73 Bet365 53.6% -1.1 pp

⚽ Model expected goals: Heerenveen 1.35 – 0.99 Excelsior Β· expected total 2.34

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market. Odds chips show the line movement since our tip β€” a big drop means the value window is closing.

🧠 Match Preview

Heerenveen host Excelsior at the Abe Lenstra Stadion on Friday night sitting 10th on 9 points from 8 games, while the visitors arrive 9th on 11 points from the same number of matches. It is a tight mid-table scrap, and the model leans firmly toward the home side.

Form is patchy on both sides. Heerenveen have gone LWDLD across their last five, Excelsior LDLDW, so neither team travels with real momentum. The attacking numbers explain the edge: Heerenveen are projected at 1.3484 goals against Excelsior's 0.9867, with recent expected goals of 1.49 and 1.14 respectively. Heerenveen's injury list is the longer one, missing O. Braude, M. Egbring, M. Linday, M. Hilgers and D. Proper, while Excelsior are without K. Bos and N. Naujoks.

The headline tip is a home win at 56.9 percent, priced at 1.71, with 84 confidence. The double chance 1X lands at 71 percent for those wanting cushion. Both teams to score is tipped No at 48.1 percent, offered at 2.62, and Under 2.5 goals comes in at 47.1 percent at odds of 2.78. The model's favourite correct score is 1-0 at 9.5 percent, with 2-0 and 2-1 close behind. Corners are expected at 9.7, giving Over 9.5 a 52.5 percent chance.

The honest caveat: those goals markets are near coin-flips, and the 1-0 scoreline carries only 9.5 percent. Heerenveen's five absentees are a genuine risk to the home-win logic, so treat the shorter prices with care.

Updated 13 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Heerenveen

Form (last 5)
LPSV Eindhoven (A) 0–2 Β· 09/10/2026WSparta Rotterdam (A) 4–0 Β· 19/09/2026DTelstar (H) 0–0 Β· 13/09/2026LAZ Alkmaar (H) 2–3 Β· 06/09/2026DWillem II (A) 2–2 Β· 30/08/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.40
Goals conceded (season avg)1.40
Win streak (best this season)1
xG for (recent avg)1.49
xG against (recent avg)1.01
Elo strength rating1531
Players out5

Excelsior

Form (last 5)
LGroningen (H) 1–5 Β· 11/10/2026DAjax (A) 2–2 Β· 19/09/2026LUtrecht (H) 1–2 Β· 13/09/2026DNEC Nijmegen (A) 2–2 Β· 08/09/2026WWillem II (A) 3–0 Β· 05/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)2
xG for (recent avg)1.14
xG against (recent avg)1.60
Elo strength rating1426
Players out2
HeerenveenExcelsior
Goals scored (season avg)
1.40
2.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.40
1.80
Win streak (best this season)
1
2
xG for (recent avg)
1.49
1.14
xG against (recent avg)
1.01
1.60
Elo strength rating
1531
1426
Players out
5
2

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Heerenveen

BTTS
2/6
Over 2.5
3/6
Scored
3/6
Clean sheets
2/6

Excelsior

Winless 4
BTTS
5/6
Over 2.5
6/6
Scored
6/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Eredivisie

Heerenveen

2nd best clean sheets (3)

Excelsior

2nd best BTTS rate (83%) Best Over 2.5 rate (100%)

Rank among 18 Eredivisie teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Heerenveen at home Β· Excelsior away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Heerenveen (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–2L
W 1
D 1
L 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)0.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.30
Clean sheets2
Failed to score2

Excelsior (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–2D–0L
W 2
D 2
Played4
Goals scored (avg)2.80
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Heerenveen (home)Excelsior (away)
W 1
D 1
L 2
W 2
D 2
Played
4
4
Goals scored (avg)
0.80
2.80
Goals conceded (avg)
1.30
1.00
Clean sheets
2
2
Failed to score
2
0

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

1–0
9.5%
2–0
7.1%
2–1
7%
3–0
3.2%
3–1
3.1%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Excelsior 2 wins Β· 1 draw Β· Heerenveen 6 wins Β· avg 2.3 goals Β· BTTS in 3 of 9

2
1
6
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
07 Mar 2026 Excelsior 1–2 Heerenveen Eredivisie
04 Oct 2025 Heerenveen 2–1 Excelsior Eredivisie
19 Jan 2024 Excelsior 3–0 Heerenveen Eredivisie
23 Sep 2023 Heerenveen 0–3 Excelsior Eredivisie
13 May 2023 Heerenveen 0–0 Excelsior Eredivisie
05 Nov 2022 Excelsior 0–1 Heerenveen Eredivisie
30 Jul 2022 Heerenveen 3–1 Excelsior Friendlies Clubs
30 Oct 2019 Excelsior 0–3 Heerenveen KNVB Beker
30 Mar 2019 Heerenveen 1–0 Excelsior Eredivisie

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Heerenveen

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09/10 PSV Eindhoven Away 0–2 L
19/09 Sparta Rotterdam Away 4–0 W
13/09 Telstar Home 0–0 D
06/09 AZ Alkmaar Home 2–3 L
30/08 Willem II Away 2–2 D

Excelsior

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11/10 Groningen Home 1–5 L
19/09 Ajax Away 2–2 D
13/09 Utrecht Home 1–2 L
08/09 NEC Nijmegen Away 2–2 D
05/09 Willem II Away 3–0 W

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Eredivisie

Heerenveen #10 Β· 9 pts β€”  Excelsior #9 Β· 11 pts

Heerenveen

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–3D–3L
W 2
D 3
L 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)1.40
Goals conceded (avg)1.40
Clean sheets3
Failed to score3
Yellow cards9
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.49
xG against (avg)1.01
Corners for (avg)6.10
Penalties (scored/missed)0/0

Excelsior

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–2D–3L
W 3
D 2
L 3
Played8
Goals scored (avg)2.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets2
Failed to score0
Yellow cards11
Red cards0
xG for (avg)1.14
xG against (avg)1.60
Corners for (avg)3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0
HeerenveenExcelsior
W 2
D 3
L 3
W 3
D 2
L 3
Played
8
8
Goals scored (avg)
1.40
2.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.40
1.80
Clean sheets
3
2
Failed to score
3
0
Yellow cards
9
11
Red cards
0
0
xG for (avg)
1.49
1.14
xG against (avg)
1.01
1.60
Corners for (avg)
6.10
3.60
Penalties (scored/missed)
0/0
1/0

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Heerenveen

1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
2
scored conceded

Excelsior

3
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
7
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
3
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

πŸ₯ Injuries & Suspensions

Heerenveen

  • ❌ O. Braude β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Egbring β€” Injury
  • ❌ M. Linday β€” Inactive
  • ❌ M. Hilgers β€” Knee Injury
  • ❌ D. Proper β€” Hamstring Injury

Excelsior

  • ❌ K. Bos β€” Shoulder Injury
  • ❌ N. Naujoks β€” Inactive

More: Eredivisie predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws