Alverca vs Casa Pia
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sat, 07 Nov 2026 • 21:00 UTC+3 • Round 11 • FC Alverca Sports Complex • 🌦 18.9°C, 15 km/h, 0.4mm showers
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | Current price not available | 57.7% | — |
| Double Chance | 1X | Current price not available | 80% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 63.2% · No 36.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 65.4% · Under 34.6% | — |
| Correct Score | 2-1 | Current price not available | 9.8% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~9.8 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 52.5% · Under 47.5% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Alverca · Home
Alverca have scored in four of their last five, including 4-1 at Famalicao and 3-1 at Nacional, and their recent xG for of 2.09 sits close to a model expected goals figure of 2.16. The one blank came in a 0-1 home loss to Arouca.
Casa Pia · Away
Casa Pia won three of five but failed to score twice, and their recent xG for of 1.07 is well below Alverca's. Both away wins in that run came by a single-goal margin or against lower-level Alpendorada.
H2H goals favour Alverca
The latest H2H, on 12 Apr 2026, finished 3-1 to Alverca, and the earlier meeting in this fixture list was also a multi-goal Alverca home win at 2-3. Casa Pia's 2-0 win in November 2025 shows they can take this, but Alverca's 9 goals in five recent matches and higher recent xG of 2.09 against 1.07 support the home edge. A 2-1 correct score fits both the scoring pattern and the model expected goals of 2.16 versus 1.22. The evidence supports Alverca win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:49 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Alverca 2.16 – 1.22 Casa Pia · expected total 3.38
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Alverca
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Alverca
Casa Pia
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Primeira Liga
Alverca
Casa Pia
Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Alverca at home · Casa Pia away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Alverca (home)
Casa Pia (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Alverca 2 wins · 0 draws · Casa Pia 1 win · avg 3.7 goals · BTTS in 2 of 3
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Alverca | 3–1 | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Casa Pia | 0–2 | Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| 02 Aug 2025 | Alverca | 2–3 | Casa Pia | Friendlies Clubs |
📈 Recent Form
Alverca
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Arouca | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 12/10 | Famalicao | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 19/09 | Rio Ave | Home | 1–0 | W |
| 12/09 | Nacional | Away | 3–1 | W |
| 05/09 | SC Braga | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 29/08 | Santa Clara | Home | 1–1 | D |
| 22/08 | Sporting CP | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 15/08 | Estrela | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 09/08 | FC Porto | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 01/08 | Sporting CP B | Home | 1–0 | W |
Casa Pia
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Sporting CP | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 24/10 | Estrela | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 18/10 | Alpendorada | Away | 1–0 | W |
| 10/10 | Santa Clara | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 20/09 | Estoril | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 12/09 | FC Porto | Home | 1–4 | L |
| 06/09 | Vitória SC | Away | 0–0 | D |
| 30/08 | Moreirense | Home | 0–1 | L |
| 24/08 | GIL Vicente | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 17/08 | Benfica | Home | 0–7 | L |
📊 Season Comparison: Primeira Liga
Alverca #10 · 11 pts · Casa Pia #17 · 7 pts
Alverca
Casa Pia
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Alverca
Casa Pia
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Primeira Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws