Estrela vs Benfica
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 23:30 UTC+3 • Round 11 • 🌦 18.2°C, 15 km/h, 0.8mm showers
No Best Bet: no eligible value candidate at current conditions.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Away | Current price not available | 54.3% | — |
| Double Chance | 12 | Current price not available | 78.3% | — |
| BTTS | Yes | Current price not available | 70% · No 30% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | Current price not available | 72.1% · Under 27.9% | — |
| Correct Score | 1-2 | Current price not available | 9% | — |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~11.8 exp.) | Over 9.5 | Current price not available | 64.9% · Under 35.1% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Estrela · Home
Estrela have lost four of their last five, failing to score in three of them, including home defeats to Casa Pia (0-2) and Academico Viseu (0-2). Their recent xG for of 1.11 sits well below the model expected goals of 1.48 for this fixture.
Benfica · Away
Benfica have won four of five, scoring 13 goals, with the lone loss a 1-3 at FC Porto. Their recent xG for of 2.23 closely tracks the model expected goals of 2.27, and they have failed to score in none of those matches.
H2H goals point to Benfica
The latest head-to-head, on 25 Jan 2026, finished 4-0 to Benfica, and the two prior meetings produced 0-1 and 2-3 scorelines. Estrela have scored in two of those three H2H games, which supports the both-teams-to-score lean alongside an away result. Benfica's 13 goals across five matches and Estrela's three goals in five make the 1-2 correct score a realistic shape rather than a stretch. The evidence supports Benfica win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:51 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Estrela 1.48 – 2.27 Benfica · expected total 3.75
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Estrela
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Estrela
Benfica
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Primeira Liga
Estrela
Benfica
Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Estrela at home · Benfica away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Estrela (home)
Benfica (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Benfica 9 wins · 0 draws · Estrela 0 wins · avg 3.8 goals · BTTS in 3 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Benfica | 4–0 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Estrela | 0–1 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 02 Feb 2025 | Estrela | 2–3 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Benfica | 7–0 | Estrela | Taça de Portugal |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Benfica | 1–0 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Estrela | 1–4 | Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Benfica | 2–0 | Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| 20 Nov 2022 | Estrela | 2–3 | Benfica | Taça da Liga |
| 13 Jan 2021 | Estrela | 0–4 | Benfica | Taça de Portugal |
📈 Recent Form
Estrela
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Moreirense | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 24/10 | Casa Pia | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 17/10 | Fazendense | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 11/10 | Arouca | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 20/09 | Academico Viseu | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 14/09 | Rio Ave | Away | 3–3 | D |
| 10/09 | SC Braga | Home | 2–1 | W |
| 05/09 | Famalicao | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 30/08 | Nacional | Away | 3–2 | W |
| 15/08 | Alverca | Away | 2–2 | D |
Benfica
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Santa Clara | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 22/10 | Omonia Nicosia | Away | 4–1 | W |
| 15/10 | Celtic | Home | 4–1 | W |
| 11/10 | Vitória SC | Home | 2–0 | W |
| 20/09 | FC Porto | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 16/09 | AC Milan | Away | 2–0 | W |
| 13/09 | GIL Vicente | Home | 3–1 | W |
| 09/09 | Moreirense | Away | 4–0 | W |
| 05/09 | Maritimo | Away | 3–0 | W |
| 31/08 | Estoril | Home | 2–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Primeira Liga
Estrela #12 · 10 pts · Benfica #2 · 22 pts
Estrela
Benfica
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Estrela
Benfica
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Primeira Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws