Estoril vs Maritimo
This page follows the latest fixture between these teams. Previous predictions stay on the record below.
Next match: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 • 18:30 UTC+3 • Round 11 • Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota • ⛈ 19.9°C, 28 km/h, 1.2mm thunderstorm
Snapshotted at publish: No at 2.07 (63.3%, Model EV +31.0%). Prices move constantly, confirm at the bookmaker.
Best Bet selection: highest current Model EV among eligible candidates from 1X2, Double Chance, BTTS, Over/Under 2.5, Corners O/U 9.5 and Correct Score.
🎯 PredictLix Predictions
Predictions updated: 02 Nov 2026 07:08 UTC+3
| Market | Tip | Odds | Probability | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Home | 1xBet2.14 | 43.3% | -7.3% |
| Double Chance | 1X | 1xBet1.33 | 72.4% | -3.7% |
| BTTS | No | Betano2.07 | 63.3% · Yes 36.7% | +31% |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 1xBet1.96 | 56.5% · Over 43.5% | +10.7% |
| Correct Score | 1-0 | Betano7.70 | 14.4% | +10.9% |
| Corners O/U 9.5 (~8 exp.) | Under 9.5 | Current price not available | 62% · Over 38% | — |
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🧠 Match Preview
Estoril · Home
Estoril enter this fixture on a five-match losing run, with 0-4 at FC Porto and 1-3 at home to Moreirense among the defeats. They have scored just 3 goals across those 5 games while conceding 12, yet their recent xG for of 0.95 sits close to the model expected goals of 0.96.
Maritimo · Away
Maritimo have lost 3 of their last 5, including 0-2 at home to Santa Clara and 0-5 at Vitória SC, and their recent xG for of 0.4 is the lowest figure in this matchup. Their one bright result was 2-1 at Alcochetense, but they failed to score in 2 of those 5 matches.
Estoril's home H2H edge
The latest head-to-head offers the clearest angle: Estoril beat Maritimo 3-1 at home in May 2023, while the two earlier meetings produced 1-0 and 0-0. Estoril's current 5-match losing run is severe, but Maritimo's recent xG for of 0.4 is notably lower than Estoril's 0.95, and the model expected goals of 0.96 versus 0.85 is a narrow gap. A 1-0 correct score fits an Under 2.5 lean and a BTTS No pick, so a low-scoring home win is realistic. The evidence supports Estoril win.
Published 02 Nov 2026 04:50 UTC+3. Analysis and numbers reflect the pre-match data snapshot available at publication.
⚽ Current model expected goals: Estoril 0.96 – 0.85 Maritimo · expected total 1.81
🔑 What Drives the Prediction
Estoril
Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors, each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict — including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.
📈 Team Trends
Estoril
Maritimo
Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.
🏅 League Benchmarks: Primeira Liga
Estoril
Maritimo
Rank among 18 Primeira Liga teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets are season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates cover the last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.
🏠 Home vs Away Records
Estoril at home · Maritimo away, the split that matters for this fixture.
Estoril (home)
Maritimo (away)
Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.
🎯 Most Likely Scores for the Selected 1X2 Outcome
Over/Under and BTTS tips are aligned with the leading scoreline. Alternative scores below may belong to other goal-total or BTTS outcomes. Percentages are estimated probabilities of the exact scores, not probabilities conditional on any scenario.
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Estoril 3 wins · 4 draws · Maritimo 2 wins · avg 1.8 goals · BTTS in 5 of 9
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 May 2023 | Estoril | 3–1 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 22 Jan 2023 | Maritimo | 1–0 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 05 Feb 2022 | Maritimo | 0–0 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 27 Aug 2021 | Estoril | 2–1 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 07 Apr 2018 | Estoril | 1–1 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 26 Nov 2017 | Maritimo | 0–0 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 14 May 2017 | Maritimo | 1–1 | Estoril | Primeira Liga |
| 07 Jan 2017 | Estoril | 0–1 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| 01 May 2016 | Estoril | 2–1 | Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
📈 Recent Form
Estoril
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | FC Porto | Away | 0–4 | L |
| 25/10 | Moreirense | Home | 1–3 | L |
| 10/10 | Academico Viseu | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 20/09 | Casa Pia | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 14/09 | SC Braga | Away | 0–1 | L |
| 07/09 | Arouca | Home | 0–0 | D |
| 31/08 | Benfica | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 22/08 | Rio Ave | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 16/08 | Nacional | Away | 0–2 | L |
| 07/08 | Famalicao | Home | 1–1 | D |
Maritimo
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Santa Clara | Home | 0–2 | L |
| 23/10 | Vitória SC | Away | 0–5 | L |
| 18/10 | Alcochetense | Away | 2–1 | W |
| 10/10 | FC Porto | Home | 1–2 | L |
| 19/09 | GIL Vicente | Away | 1–1 | D |
| 14/09 | Moreirense | Away | 1–3 | L |
| 05/09 | Benfica | Home | 0–3 | L |
| 29/08 | Arouca | Away | 1–2 | L |
| 22/08 | Academico Viseu | Home | 2–2 | D |
| 16/08 | Famalicao | Away | 2–1 | W |
📊 Season Comparison: Primeira Liga
Estoril #18 · 2 pts · Maritimo #14 · 8 pts
Estoril
Maritimo
⏱️ Goal Timing (season)
Estoril
Maritimo
Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.
More: Primeira Liga predictions · BTTS · Over/Under · Correct Score · Draws