Predictions β†’ Scotland Championship

Morton vs Ayr Utd

Next match: Sat, 24 Oct 2026 β€’ 14:00 UTC+3 β€’ Round 12 β€’ Cappielow Park β€’ β›… 11.6Β°C, 13 km/h partly cloudy

🎯 PredictLix Predictions

MarketTipConfidenceProbabilityOddsBookmakerMarket impliedEdge
Match Result (1X2) Away 75% 31.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Double Chance X2 69% 69.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”
BTTS No 82% 51.8% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 84% 55.6% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Correct Score 0-1 71% 12.2% β€” β€” β€” β€”
Draw (value pick) Draw 78% 29.3% β€” β€” β€” β€”

⚽ Model expected goals: Morton 0.83 – 0.99 Ayr Utd Β· expected total 1.82

Probabilities are calibrated against this season's real results. Odds are correct at publish time. Odds are the best price across every bookmaker in our feed β€” the Bookmaker column says who offers it. Market implied = the bookmaker's probability with margin removed (proportional de-vig across all outcomes β€” critical on Correct Score, where the book margin is huge; for Double Chance it is derived from the de-vigged 1X2 market instead). Positive edge = the model rates this outcome higher than the market.

🧠 Match Preview

Morton host Ayr Utd at Cappielow Park on Saturday for a Championship Regular Season Round 12 fixture, and the stakes are lopsided. The home side sits 9th on just 4 points from 10 games, while Ayr arrive 7th with 12 points from the same number of matches. Morton's last five read WLLLL, a single win propping up an otherwise grim run, whereas Ayr's DWLWL is modest but clearly healthier.

The model leans away. Ayr are tipped to win at 31.6 percent with a confidence of 75, and the double chance X2 lands at 69.3 percent, comfortably the safest angle on the board. The draw itself is priced at 29.3 percent with a confidence of 78, so the split between away win and stalemate is tight. Goals look scarce: Under 2.5 carries 55.6 percent, and BTTS No sits at 51.8 percent. The expected goals figures tell the same story, with Morton at 0.8264 and Ayr at 0.9916. The correct score tip is 0-1 at 12.2 percent, and the top scorelines are 0-1 at 14.77, 0-2 at 7.98, 1-2 at 6.6, 0-3 at 2.64 and 1-3 at 2.18. Recent head-to-heads were tight: 1-1, 0-1, 1-1, 2-1 and 2-2, with no injuries reported for either side.

Value likely hides in the double chance and the unders rather than the outright away win, given how narrow the margin is between Ayr and the draw. The honest caveat: this is a low-scoring, low-separation matchup, and Morton's single recent win shows they can scrap a result at home, so the 31.6 percent away probability is far from a lock.

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 04:09 UTC+3 β€” refreshed when the underlying data changes.

πŸ”‘ What Drives the Prediction

Morton

Form (last 5)
WArbroath (A) 2–1 Β· 10/10/2026LRaith Rovers (H) 1–2 Β· 03/10/2026LInverness CT (A) 0–2 Β· 25/09/2026LDunfermline (H) 0–1 Β· 19/09/2026LLivingston (H) 1–4 Β· 11/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)0.70
Goals conceded (season avg)1.80
Win streak (best this season)0
Elo strength rating1379

Ayr Utd

Form (last 5)
DDunfermline (H) 1–1 Β· 10/10/2026WLivingston (A) 2–1 Β· 03/10/2026LStenhousemuir (H) 0–1 Β· 25/09/2026WQueen's Park (A) 2–0 Β· 18/09/2026LInverness CT (H) 1–3 Β· 12/09/2026
Goals scored (season avg)1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)1.10
Win streak (best this season)1
Elo strength rating1458
MortonAyr Utd
Goals scored (season avg)
0.70
1.00
Goals conceded (season avg)
1.80
1.10
Win streak (best this season)
0
1
Elo strength rating
1379
1458

Headline inputs behind this prediction. The full model combines 20+ weighted factors β€” each published with an evidence level (A–D) in How we predict β€” including proprietary signals and calibration we don't publish, into the final probabilities.

πŸ“ˆ Team Trends

Morton

BTTS
4/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
0/6

Ayr Utd

BTTS
3/6
Over 2.5
2/6
Scored
4/6
Clean sheets
1/6

Streaks run from the most recent match; ratios cover each team's last 6 matches in all competitions.

πŸ… League Benchmarks β€” Championship

Morton

Worst defence (1.80 conceded/game) Best BTTS rate (67%) Best Over 2.5 rate (67%) Worst clean sheets (0)

Ayr Utd

3rd best BTTS rate (50%)

Rank among 10 Championship teams. Attack, defence and clean sheets β€” season league stats; BTTS and Over 2.5 rates β€” last 6 matches, all competitions. Only top-3 and bottom-2 marks are shown.

🏠 Home vs Away Records

Morton at home Β· Ayr Utd away β€” the split that matters for this fixture.

Morton (home)

Wins–Draws–Losses0W–0D–5L
L 5
Played5
Goals scored (avg)0.60
Goals conceded (avg)2.00
Clean sheets0
Failed to score2

Ayr Utd (away)

Wins–Draws–Losses2W–1D–2L
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played5
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.00
Clean sheets1
Failed to score2
Morton (home)Ayr Utd (away)
L 5
W 2
D 1
L 2
Played
5
5
Goals scored (avg)
0.60
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
2.00
1.00
Clean sheets
0
1
Failed to score
2
2

Season record of the home team at its own ground against the away team's record on the road.

🎯 Most Likely Scorelines

0–1
12.2%
0–2
6.6%
1–2
5.5%
0–3
2.2%
1–3
1.8%

The five most probable exact scores for THIS fixture β€” computed from both teams' expected goals (score matrix), not generic league stats.

βš”οΈ Head-to-Head

Ayr Utd 3 wins Β· 5 draws Β· Morton 2 wins Β· avg 2 goals Β· BTTS in 6 of 10

3
5
2
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
29 Aug 2026 Ayr Utd 1–1 Morton Championship
21 Mar 2026 Ayr Utd 0–1 Morton Championship
27 Dec 2025 Morton 1–1 Ayr Utd Championship
18 Oct 2025 Ayr Utd 2–1 Morton Championship
23 Aug 2025 Morton 2–2 Ayr Utd Championship
08 Mar 2025 Morton 2–1 Ayr Utd Championship
28 Dec 2024 Ayr Utd 0–0 Morton Championship
30 Nov 2024 Ayr Utd 2–0 Morton FA Cup
08 Nov 2024 Morton 1–1 Ayr Utd Championship
28 Sep 2024 Ayr Utd 1–0 Morton Championship

πŸ“ˆ Recent Form

Morton

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Arbroath Away 2–1 W
03/10 Raith Rovers Home 1–2 L
25/09 Inverness CT Away 0–2 L
19/09 Dunfermline Home 0–1 L
11/09 Livingston Home 1–4 L

Ayr Utd

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10/10 Dunfermline Home 1–1 D
03/10 Livingston Away 2–1 W
25/09 Stenhousemuir Home 0–1 L
18/09 Queen's Park Away 2–0 W
12/09 Inverness CT Home 1–3 L

πŸ“Š Season Comparison β€” Championship

Morton #9 Β· 4 pts β€”  Ayr Utd #7 Β· 12 pts

Morton

Wins–Draws–Losses1W–1D–8L
W 1
D 1
L 8
Played10
Goals scored (avg)0.70
Goals conceded (avg)1.80
Clean sheets0
Failed to score4
Yellow cards18
Red cards1
Penalties (scored/missed)1/0

Ayr Utd

Wins–Draws–Losses3W–3D–4L
W 3
D 3
L 4
Played10
Goals scored (avg)1.00
Goals conceded (avg)1.10
Clean sheets2
Failed to score3
Yellow cards17
Red cards2
Penalties (scored/missed)1/1
MortonAyr Utd
W 1
D 1
L 8
W 3
D 3
L 4
Played
10
10
Goals scored (avg)
0.70
1.00
Goals conceded (avg)
1.80
1.10
Clean sheets
0
2
Failed to score
4
3
Yellow cards
18
17
Red cards
1
2
Penalties (scored/missed)
1/0
1/1

⏱️ Goal Timing (season)

Morton

0-15
1
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded

Ayr Utd

4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
1
scored conceded

Goals by 15-minute intervals this season. Late-game scoring patterns matter for live and "goal in last 15 minutes" markets.

More: Championship predictions Β· BTTS Β· Over/Under Β· Correct Score Β· Draws